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Central PA - Summer 2021


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24 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Completely agree.  I think this thing is moving along quickly enough and will be just spread out enough to avoid major issues for most.  Now, there will certainly be some localized spots that are hit hard and some moderate flooding at-large, but I don't see this as a Lee or Agnes situation, too progressive.  Also, I expect a relative lull through much of the morning and early afternoon out this way, with the real goods coming this evening.  Still optimistic that the highest totals remain just to my north.  My 7:30am tally was just under an inch.  An exciting day on tap one way or the other.  Good luck to all for whatever your desired outcome is!

This is what I was trying to say yesterday.

Currently, up to .94" but no rain is falling currently. 

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Just now, TheDreamTraveler said:

The heaviest rain isn't forecast to fall until later this evening after 4 pm or so I believe. Though the cutoff might be more extreme down where you are I think

Cutoff has been brutal across SE parts of Lanco - some areas south and east of the city have yet to see a drop. 

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1.10" in the gauge so far.  Incredible torrent back around 7:30 which delivered around 0.75" in about 20 minutes.  Interestingly, right now the radar is lit up with orange and yellow north of here up in true central areas.  Will that shift south during the day?  We'll see.  Oh, btw, so far there have been zero recorded lightning strikes for the entire event.

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23 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

651d6a16f33fa0094448241a7e05b7dc.jpg
Guess this line determines the haves and have nots.


.

South and East of that line has the best shot at tornados later. Lancaster seems to be in an odd spot: not exactly in the "heaviest" rain axis but also not SE enough for the best Tornado chance. However, I assume as this begins to shift a bit east the axis of rain will also shift with it

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3 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

maybe that will help keep our totals down. 

The biggest bulk of our rain is gonna come later this afternoon/evening where we have a period of a few hours dropping 1-2 inch per hour rates. But it also matters where exactly the heaviest rain sets up so we'll have to see where that happens

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6 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

The biggest bulk of our rain is gonna come later this afternoon/evening where we have a period of a few hours dropping 1-2 inch per hour rates. But it also matters where exactly the heaviest rain sets up so we'll have to see where that happens

Hrrr depicts what I’d call a pivot zone or deform like area you’d see in winter storms. Whoever gets caught in that zone floods 

 

looks to be close to Garrett County now

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12 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Hrrr depicts what I’d call a pivot zone or deform like area you’d see in winter storms. Whoever gets caught in that zone floods 

 

looks to be close to Garrett County now

We also got one in Allegheny (as evidenced by the large amount of warnings over us) and got 2-3 inches in a 6 hour span.

 

it is causing significant issues.

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Strong wording for CTP
e post-tropical transition of Ida (interaction with the mid- latitude westerlies and quasi-stationary front draped near the MD/PA line) will bring extreme rainfall and considerable flooding impacts to south central PA today into early Thursday. Strong signals in the latest hires ensemble guidance leads to high confidence extreme 24-hr rainfall totals of 4 to 6+ inches with local amounts up to 8 inches possible. The 01/00Z HREF probability of 24hr QPF to exceed 100yr ARI is 70-100% which increases confidence in extreme rainfall even more. To put this into a more localized climatological perspective, we are forecasting a top-5 maximum daily rainfall total at Harrisburg. 
 
 

433bd98a7a7918080d19a4bc9f114d2a.jpg


.
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3 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

We also got one in Allegheny (as evidenced by the large amount of warnings over us) and got 2-3 inches in a 6 hour span.

 

it is causing significant issues.

Yes thanks for pointing that out.  Your band is sinking south as the band around Morgantown is still pushing north.  That’s the zone 

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