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Central PA - Summer 2021


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6 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Bands will set up north of us.  Still 24 hours of north trends yet.  Like watching our foot of snow turn into 2” of slush to rain 

If you look at the current radar it is very similar to the EC depiction early in the storm.  We stay fairly dry well into tomorrow.   Spotty rains and less than 1" until later tomorrow. 

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11 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Bands will set up north of us.  Still 24 hours of north trends yet.  Like watching our foot of snow turn into 2” of slush to rain 

Been thinking this very thing all day.

This is why I get most excited about winter storms that bullseye BALT/WASH at 48 hours out. Unless there's a legit compelling reason why it won't happen, the north trend is real and has taken that 1' of snow and turned to to mush here more times than I can count or even want to. 

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Been thinking this very thing all day.
This is why I get most excited about winter storms that bullseye BALT/WASH at 48 hours out. Unless there's a legit compelling reason why it won't happen, the north trend is real and has taken that 1' of snow and turned to to mush here more times than I can count or even want to. 

Me too. Almost every winter storm that was supposed to miss us to the south ended up being crush jobs for us.


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6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Tropical systems are wild cards for sure - I just wonder if the forward motion prohibits double digit totals. I got 15" from Lee but it took many, many hours to get there. 

I know what Horst said but 24 hours of rain (varying intensity) is a pretty slow mover. 

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3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I didn't think we were looking at that long of duration? If so, that changes things. I was thinking this was a 6-10 hour deal...at least the main show. 

Just taking the 3K as an example, the moderate rain starts at MDT 3Z Wed and stays moderate to heavy until about the same time Thursday.   The super heavy stuff is not 24 hours but MDT already has about 2" when that arrives. 

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3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

The trend is undeniable atm...but the further north this drives severe weather becomes more possible.  I expect lots of surprises with Ida remnants. 

nam-nest-md-supercell_comp-0530000.png

Knocking on the m/d line

Yep, I alluded to that earlier. I'm  becoming more concerned about things that spin than things that flood. 

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9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yep, I alluded to that earlier. I'm  becoming more concerned about things that spin than things that flood. 

HRRR really shows off the severe potential south of the Turnpike.  Lots of the QPF down here is more cell based vs. heavy strat rain. Big Strat LSV totals are Cumberland/Dauphin and North. 

image.thumb.png.b88f0ecfc8f5379e2aceb4b5c6ff53a0.png

 

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It's interesting in the office today.  The atmosphere feels like we have an impending snow storm with everyone strategizing and excited.  Fortunately, we have the option to work from home (so why did our company force us all back into the office?).   Hurricane season is my second favorite weather tracking season (even though I lost a home to hurricane Andrew in Homestead).  And we thought winter systems were squirrelly? LOL

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