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June, 2021 Discussion


Typhoon Tip
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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

AC installed 4 units 15 minutes. Will get a work out until Wednesday then we open air

Yea. Easy to install and then when the coc returns it is so easy to uninstall while those who took 45min with bulky window units can’t open their windows to let the coc in.

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Saturday, in the overnight NAM run went considerably warm(er) at New York and Boston ...

Short rendition:

- this looks like a 94 F, 21 Z temp at those locations as near as tomorrow, which accordingly means the abutting metro districts are rotisserie hotdogs.  In fact, this is probably true out across the expanses of any mall towns out in the burbs of the coastal plain, too. There is ventilation, at least, as we see there > 15 kt wind at all intervals - so perhaps the DPs mix from 72 to 64 throughout the day ( or whatever the sounding allows.). Then it is unabated heat and plausible that machine guidance will slip beneath local 2-meter out through Tuesday thereafter.  I could see this maxing in the upper 90s Mon or Tues, preferably NNE/BTV... but it's too close to count out NY and Boston.

Longer rendition:  

These are 06z FOUS numbers for KBOS and KLGA for Saturday:

36000575044 -2198 082219 72 27 20 13   36000535037 -0597 112415 72 28 22 13
42000616447 -2394 082416 74 28 21 13   42000494939 01197 122518 73 29 22 14
48000434646 00500 102719 71 26 21 14   48000555023 00999 142618 71 25 22 14

Those bold numbers are the temperatures at the 980, 900 and 800 mb levels, from left to right.   That 980 is well above the lowest sloped region of the sounding, where the 2-meter temperatures is approached sort of asymptotically; typical rule of thumb, at the end of that slope adds almost nothing at night,  3 to 5 C by sunnier day, to the lowest value.  Example, 28 and 4 obviously = 32 C, or~ 90F (89.6), if the day's got good heating.  ~92 down NYC.

But*  the wind in this product is trying to bend into the west late in the afternoon and into the early evening hours. This almost implies there could be late highs registered at these locations, between 5 and 6 pm.  Also, the RH values also present in these FOUS numbers, implicating open sky with > 95% insolation bath; these 'rough' fixes for the 2-meter may need more like 5 C or even a 6 to account for urban concrete and street/'island' feed-backs.    Saturday night is brutal in the urban centers and three-story packed neighborhoods that have lower income access ability to ventilation and cooling ( to be imaginatively specific... yikes!), may need circumstantial heat headlines. But 26 C, at 980 mb, at 2 am at Logan - that's probably the coveted 80 F low there. 78 anyway

This heat wave ( which I do believe we will verify) is coming in sooner than we had originally seen modeled. This was always going to be a Monday through Wednesday ordeal, with the end week negotiable as a BD this and that began showing up.  But now it appears the ballast of this heat may be centered on Monday and Tuesday, with the preceding Saturday and Sunday involved in it.  Wednesday's heat nuts may get clipped - but, I'm also wondering if that pattern out there is still not settled.

The Euro looks overly amplifying on that day, and in an odd twist, the 00z GFS is actually delaying the front on Wednesday to more like Wednesday evening, and with lingering mid level quasi EML probably keeping the sig ceilings sparse ..that would include Wednesday too. I think it is possible that we lose the BD aspect in future guidance layouts, and see this morph into a standard westerlies erosion of the heat event. We'll see. In fact, in a stricter sense of it, the Euro is not a backdoor front on this 00z run. It's governing mid level support is coming down at a rather steep angle in the 00z run - granted - but the attending surface front is actually just advecting SE as a normal kick.

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24 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. Easy to install and then when the coc returns it is so easy to uninstall while those who took 45min with bulky window units can’t open their windows to let the coc in.

I have two windows in my bedroom and only have an AC in one.  It's the best of both worlds.

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23 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I see SPC put up a marginal up this way for today. Was waiting for that. Today is certainly not a huge severe threat and not even certain about coverage of thunderstorm activity but some damaging wind gusts definitely possible. 

Yeah.. neglected/forgot/didn't see the urgency in following up on this one, heh.   I originally idealized a marginal sort of interest for yesterday - but yesterday turned out toxic to lift with a diffused warm boundary offering ample CIN at 700 mb, while the underbelly couldn't get much sun to cook the earth.    More DP today though, an we're splashing sun - we'll see. 

I just want crispy edge towers to gawk at - not asking for much.    Part of the issue is the whole atmosphere is also gradually being offset by a rising heights in every direction, as the super synoptic ridge signal begins GWO-ing through the hemisphere.  

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Canada is a hot mess right now.

Their restrictions on travel, in or out, have had major effects on border areas.  Historically, the majority of Old Orchard Beach summer tourism has come from PQ.  It's like they won't open their eyes until new cases drop to zero, both there and here.

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah.. neglected/forgot/didn't see the urgency in following up on this one, heh.   I originally idealized a marginal sort of interest for yesterday - but yesterday turned out toxic to lift with a diffused warm boundary offering ample CIN at 700 mb, while the underbelly couldn't get much sun to cook the earth.    More DP today though, an we're splashing sun - we'll see. 

I just want crispy edge towers to gawk at - not asking for much.    Part of the issue is the whole atmosphere is sort of being offset by a rising heights in every direction, as the super synoptic ridge signal begins GWO-ing through the hemisphere.  

I love staring out the window and fantasizing TCU's rapidly rising and gaining altitude as they ascend through the troposphere and spread out across the sky upon reaching the tropopause. Actually got to view this with the storms last week. It was clear as day out ahead of that line...which doesn't happen very often here (outside of EML's). 

One thing about today though is there's a quite a bit of shear currently but looks to weaken through the day. the HRRR is pretty aggressive for today. Have to watch out for a differential heating axis which may evolve  

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. Easy to install and then when the coc returns it is so easy to uninstall while those who took 45min with bulky window units can’t open their windows to let the coc in.

I like those units but the window ones are so much more efficient. You can always use them as fans too. It took us like 10 minutes to install three window units lol.

Not taking them out for a nice day though so I can see the portable ones being handy for that.

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19 minutes ago, White Rain said:

I like those units but the window ones are so much more efficient. You can always use them as fans too. It took us like 10 minutes to install three window units lol.

Not taking them out for a nice day though so I can see the portable ones being handy for that.

We have window units and a portable. I like the portable except for the noise.  It’s much louder than our two new window units.

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When I lived on the ocean in SRI it rarely reached 90 but during interior heat waves it got very muggy. Took moving inland to understand why so many flock to the coasts. I took for granted the daily Seabreeze and cooling. The forests here have a cooling effect. I couldn't imagine living in a highly urbanized area or open valley during heat waves. Thankfully for the great majority of us the plentiful lakes and nearby ocean are relief places. I love New England so much for its variety of weather. Summer rocks.

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who in here was alive during the apocalypse Chicago summer of 1995 ?

Tell me again, how this should not be rated as a natural/national disaster -

" The 1995 Chicago heat wave led to 739 heat-related deaths in Chicago over a period of five days.[1] Most of the victims of the heat wave were elderly poor residents of the city, who could not afford air conditioning and did not open windows or sleep outside for fear of crime.[2] The heat wave also heavily impacted the wider Midwestern region, with additional deaths in both St. Louis, Missouri[3] and Milwaukee, Wisconsin.[4] " -c/o  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Chicago_heat_wave

image.thumb.png.140e95a81bb524c496e62a828d7f230a.png

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

who in here was alive during the apocalypse Chicago summer of 1995 ?

Tell me again, how this should not be rated as natural/national disaster -

" The 1995 Chicago heat wave led to 739 heat-related deaths in Chicago over a period of five days.[1] Most of the victims of the heat wave were elderly poor residents of the city, who could not afford air conditioning and did not open windows or sleep outside for fear of crime.[2] The heat wave also heavily impacted the wider Midwestern region, with additional deaths in both St. Louis, Missouri[3] and Milwaukee, Wisconsin.[4] " -c/o  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Chicago_heat_wave

image.thumb.png.140e95a81bb524c496e62a828d7f230a.png

I remember that.

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

who in here was alive during the apocalypse Chicago summer of 1995 ?

Tell me again, how this should not be rated as natural/national disaster -

" The 1995 Chicago heat wave led to 739 heat-related deaths in Chicago over a period of five days.[1] Most of the victims of the heat wave were elderly poor residents of the city, who could not afford air conditioning and did not open windows or sleep outside for fear of crime.[2] The heat wave also heavily impacted the wider Midwestern region, with additional deaths in both St. Louis, Missouri[3] and Milwaukee, Wisconsin.[4] " -c/o  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Chicago_heat_wave

image.thumb.png.140e95a81bb524c496e62a828d7f230a.png

Because of this right here:

Most of the victims of the heat wave were elderly poor residents of the city

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30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I remember that.

My father was living in Kalamazoo Michigan in that era - southern tier of the state.

It wasn't just Chicago - population density will tend to win that debate.   But Indianapolis back to Springfield IL, up through Minn/Wisc and all over Ohio and the rest of Michigan took that one unrelenting for 5 days.

He's extolled to me in the past, he did not see a bank thermometer ( remember they used to have those lol ) less than 107 F during three days of that, and no night fell below 84 F.  He said it was routinely mid 90s by 10 am. 

I mean we have this sort of index finger rule around here, '90 by 9' if you wanna make a hundo.  'Nother one is '10 after 10' Both seem to work reasonably well for unadulterated heating.

Imagine clearing these in principle by 7:55 in the morning.  I've seen this before. It's almost like the atmosphere is so sensitively ready to take off that the temp starts rising with the daylight that precedes sun rays tipping over the dawn.  You can actually see it, 6:12 am and the temp is up 2, etc

It almost seemed that could not get hotter?  It was as though it was parametrically situated to be hotter, but the sun and latitude simply couldn't find the radiative power to get the temp up any higher.  Maybe.  But bank thermometers - heh.  Either way it was probably a buck-3, three days running anyway and probably more -

The coup de gras?  Dp was 76!

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23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

who in here was alive during the apocalypse Chicago summer of 1995 ?

Tell me again, how this should not be rated as a natural/national disaster -

" The 1995 Chicago heat wave led to 739 heat-related deaths in Chicago over a period of five days.[1] Most of the victims of the heat wave were elderly poor residents of the city, who could not afford air conditioning and did not open windows or sleep outside for fear of crime.[2] The heat wave also heavily impacted the wider Midwestern region, with additional deaths in both St. Louis, Missouri[3] and Milwaukee, Wisconsin.[4] " -c/o  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Chicago_heat_wave

image.thumb.png.140e95a81bb524c496e62a828d7f230a.png

Was living in Chicagoland then.  I was out of town for the hottest day (July 13) but came back on the 14th.  I remember flying into Midway and it was still near 100 around 7 pm.  

What happened in Chicago was certainly a big disaster.  As it was unfolding, then-mayor Richard Daley had some kind of remark to the effect of "it's Chicago, it gets hot" but to be fair, it took some time for the enormity of it all to be realized.  

Some good came out of that.  Now, the city of Chicago has a well-coordinated response when heat strikes.  Also, the criteria to trigger heat headlines from the NWS is a bit lower there than it is for the suburban counties.

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