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June 2021


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11 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

ECM has 850 temps >18C building into the upper MW/ GL by next Saturday again.  It May be a 5 - 7 day break before theyre  back into the frying pan perhaps shunted south a bit from the prior record heat.  We'll see if we can see that spill east Fathersday and the week of 6/21.

Somebody out West may be able to finish the month at +10 or greater. Looks like the pattern tries to reshuffle a bit later in June. More of a WAR and Plains trough with ridging along the West Coast. 

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F1DA7B6A-A152-403A-BEAA-5755A0517175.thumb.png.9db4ccc627411104c4184e91da6ead0b.png

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Wantage NJ (this part of extreme nw NJ) .01 of widespread 1/4 to as much as spotty 3.0" in the parts of the NYC forum by 10PM Tuesday.  Batch one now in nw NJ, suspect 1-2 batches tonight, possibly 1 leftover batch Monday morning,?and probably 1 more  band Monday evening-night and with the cold low aloft, more scattered showers/tstms in lower 1" PWAT with small hailers possible Tue afternoon and Wed afternoon.  Good for parts of the area.  Been sprinkling here at times since just before 9A this morning then it picked up around 11A.  Probably ready to click .02 by 1145A.

 

Edited 423P: SPC expanded Marginal risk into NYC in their D2 afternoon update.  Looks to me like a few svr will occur e PA/NJ and possibly into NYC late Mon afternoon-evening.  

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The Las Vegas- Henderson area of Nevada averages about 4-5 inches of rain for the entire year. A desert. Lake Mead which is nearby is way below where it should be and is the water supply to so many out there. Vegas has already had some 4 plus inches of rain this year. It would seem to me that lake Mead is probably so low not only because it is so dry but so many more people keep moving there and more water is being  used every year. 

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49 minutes ago, lee59 said:

The Las Vegas- Henderson area of Nevada averages about 4-5 inches of rain for the entire year. A desert. Lake Mead which is nearby is way below where it should be and is the water supply to so many out there. Vegas has already had some 4 plus inches of rain this year. It would seem to me that lake Mead is probably so low not only because it is so dry but so many more people keep moving there and more water is being  used every year. 

Las Vegas has received 0.85” precipitation year-to-date and 0.89” over the past 12 months.

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Temperatures will likely remain somewhat below normal through midweek. Overall, the first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal. Afterward, a warming trend could develop.

Out West, an extreme heatwave is now under way in the Southwest, including Phoenix. High temperatures included:

Death Valley: 116°
Phoenix: 113°
Salt Lake City: 102° (old record: 100°, 1918)
Tucson: 112° (old record: 110°, 1924)
Winslow, AZ: 106° (old record: 104°, 1918)

The extreme heat will likely continue through much of next week. The temperature could reach 115° on one or more days, especially during tomorrow through Friday. For reference, Phoenix's daily records for the June 14-18 period are posted below.

Record high maximum temperatures:

June 14: 115°, 1987
June 15: 115°, 1974
June 16: 115°, 1974
June 17: 114°, 2014
June 18: 115°, 1989 and 2015

Record high minimum temperatures:

June 14: 90°, 2018 (earliest 90° low on record)
June 15: 88°, 1936
June 16: 86°, 1988
June 17: 88°, 1986 and 2008
June 18: 88°, 2008

Phoenix will very likely see the earliest temperature above 115° on record. The existing record was set on June 19, 2016 when the temperature reached 118°. That record was tied in 2017.

This unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. It remains uncertain whether this extreme air mass will impact the region at some point later in the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around June 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was +4.12 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.639 today.

On June 11 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.445 (RMM). The June 10-adjusted amplitude was 0.136 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

With Phoenix very likely to reach 115° or above next week, that development could provide another hint of a warmer than normal summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June had a warmer than July-August. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.2° (2.2° above normal).

 

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26 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Las Vegas has received 0.85” precipitation year-to-date and 0.89” over the past 12 months.

I read or misread an article that said they received 4 inches this year. I just looked closer and you are absolutely correct, except it said they have received .93 so far this year. I also looked at the last 11 years and according to the stats I read they have averaged 3.9 inches per year.

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4 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I read or misread an article that said they received 4 inches this year. I just looked closer and you are absolutely correct, except it said they have received .93 so far this year. I also looked at the last 11 years and according to the stats I read they have averaged 3.9 inches per year.

No worries. It can happen.

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1 hour ago, lee59 said:

The Las Vegas- Henderson area of Nevada averages about 4-5 inches of rain for the entire year. A desert. Lake Mead which is nearby is way below where it should be and is the water supply to so many out there. Vegas has already had some 4 plus inches of rain this year. It would seem to me that lake Mead is probably so low not only because it is so dry but so many more people keep moving there and more water is being  used every year. 

Most of the southwest is utterly unfit for human habitation, let alone the massive sprawl that has sprung up around Phoenix, LV and LA in recent decades. These water crises are only going to get worse.

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2 hours ago, Gravity Wave said:

Most of the southwest is utterly unfit for human habitation, let alone the massive sprawl that has sprung up around Phoenix, LV and LA in recent decades. These water crises are only going to get worse.

Population growth alone would have cause a water crisis anyway being in such a dry region. CC just speeds up that timeline.

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3 hours ago, gravitylover said:

You guys are fkd up :rolleyes: 70-75 is so much nicer than hot and steamy. I understand appreciating the extremes but why root for unpleasant? 

This weather is terrible if you enjoy the beach/pool.  Last weeks weather was far better.

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Disappointing overnight most of forum ne PA, NW NJ,  interior se NYS, bit it's lighting up  bit now near NYC.  I like the SVR outlook posted above from SPC and despite poor performance overnight in the WAA down our way, still believe widespread 1/4" iso 3+ b y 10P Tues with small hailers Tue afternoon in some spots.

Have a day.

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9 hours ago, HailMan06 said:

Population growth alone would have cause a water crisis anyway being in such a dry region. CC just speeds up that timeline.

The Northeast is getting warmer and wetter while the Southwest is becoming warmer and drier.

 

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Morning thoughts...

Today will be mostly cloudy and somewhat cooler than normal. Showers and thunderstorms are likely with some periods of rain in the morning and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Some of the thunderstorms can be strong. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 70s in most places. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 72°

Newark: 77°

Philadelphia: 81°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 79.3°; 15-Year: 79.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 81.5°; 15-Year: 81.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 82.9°; 15-Year: 83.1°

The somewhat cooler than normal temperatures will likely persist through midweek. Afterward, a warmer regime could begin to evolve.

Out West, record-breaking heat will continue across the Southwest, including Phoenix. At Phoenix, the temperature will likely reach 115° on multiple days, especially during the Monday-Friday period. It is likely that Phoenix will see its earliest 116° or above temperature on record. The unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. 

Daily Records for June 14:

Phoenix: 115°, 1987 (Forecast: 114° to 118°)

Tucson: 111°, 1993 (Forecast: 110° to 112°)

*-Forecast range is 1 sigma below and above the forecast mean.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The Northeast is getting warmer and wetter while the Southwest is becoming warmer and drier.

 

The drought is certainly contributing to the unbelievable low levels of Lake Mead. I think a bigger reason is the amount of people that are drawing from the water source. 

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4thday of mainly cloudy conditions.   Rain showers and storms pm and Tue AM.  Cooler / Drier and sunny conditions on Wed and Thu before warmer air build in for this weekend.  Rockies ridge heat factory manufacturing the heat out west.  Pieces of that heat will slide east around the ridge with Sat could see temps approach 90(s).  Beyond there we are continuing to see models show the Western Atlantics ridge building west in the 6/22 period producing a humid , hot flow.  Step up to warmer 6/19 and perhaps more sustained warmth and heat chances 6/22 - and beyond.  Warm to hot June overall.

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20 minutes ago, lee59 said:

The drought is certainly contributing to the unbelievable low levels of Lake Mead. I think a bigger reason is the amount of people that are drawing from the water source. 

It’s both. There is documented, verifiable and historic drought. There is also a massive population boom in a desert. The video showed a guy farming in the desert. There aren’t supposed to be farms in the desert...

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15 minutes ago, psv88 said:

It’s both. There is documented, verifiable and historic drought. There is also a massive population boom in a desert. The video showed a guy farming in the desert. There aren’t supposed to be farms in the desert...

I saw a documentary a few years ago about the population boom in the SW. Someone mentioned that hundreds of years from now (assuming we're still here), archeologists will scratch their heads wondering why we thought it was a good idea to build cities in the desert along with houses that include swimming pools.  

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9 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

I saw a documentary a few years ago about the population boom in the SW. Someone mentioned that hundreds of years from now (assuming we're still here), archeologists will scratch their heads wondering why we thought it was a good idea to build cities in the desert along with houses that include swimming pools.  

Because Americans can’t be told what to do....if they want a house with a pool, the government should butt out, etc etc etc.

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52 minutes ago, lee59 said:

The drought is certainly contributing to the unbelievable low levels of Lake Mead. I think a bigger reason is the amount of people that are drawing from the water source. 

Their water usage has actually been declining in recent years. So it shows you how historic this current drought is. If the Colorado Basin doesn’t see an increase in precipitation the next few years, then they will have to institute drastic cuts. It looks like the first level of cuts will begin by by later this summer.

https://www.circleofblue.org/2020/world/remarkable-drop-in-colorado-river-water-use-a-sign-of-climate-adaptation/

Use of Colorado River water in the three states of the river’s lower basin fell to a 33-year low in 2019, amid growing awareness of the precarity of the region’s water supply in a drying and warming climate.

Arizona, California, and Nevada combined to consume just over 6.5 million acre-feet last year, according to an annual audit from the Bureau of Reclamation, the federal agency that oversees the lower basin. That is about 1 million acre-feet less than the three states are entitled to use under a legal compact that divides the Colorado River’s waters.

The last time water consumption from the river was that low was in 1986, the year after an enormous canal in Arizona opened that allowed the state to lay claim to its full Colorado River entitlement.

 

 

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Cooldown dailies

6/11

EWR: 73/65 (-2)
JFK: 71/61 (-3)
NYC: 69/62 (-4)
LGA: 68/62 (-6)
TTN: 65/58 )-7)

 

6/12

TTN: 73 / 61 (-3)
LGA: 71/63 (-4)
NYC: 69/62 (-5)
EWR: 72 / 65 (-5)
JFK: 69/ 59 (-6)

 

6/13

NYC: 76 / 62 (-2)
LGA : 77/ 63 (-2)
TTN: 76/59 (-2)
EWR:  78 / 59 (-3)
JFK: 72 / 58 (-5)

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Their water usage has actually been declining in recent years. So it shows you how historic this current drought is. If the Colorado Basin doesn’t see an increase in precipitation the next few years, then they will have to institute drastic cuts. It looks like the first level of cuts will begin by by later this summer.

https://www.circleofblue.org/2020/world/remarkable-drop-in-colorado-river-water-use-a-sign-of-climate-adaptation/

Use of Colorado River water in the three states of the river’s lower basin fell to a 33-year low in 2019, amid growing awareness of the precarity of the region’s water supply in a drying and warming climate.

Arizona, California, and Nevada combined to consume just over 6.5 million acre-feet last year, according to an annual audit from the Bureau of Reclamation, the federal agency that oversees the lower basin. That is about 1 million acre-feet less than the three states are entitled to use under a legal compact that divides the Colorado River’s waters.

The last time water consumption from the river was that low was in 1986, the year after an enormous canal in Arizona opened that allowed the state to lay claim to its full Colorado River entitlement.

 

 

The population of Arizona and Nevada has gone up by some 60% since 2000. That has a big effect on water consumption. . Putting California in the mix and there population has gone up by some 6 million since 2000. Reading the article you showed, I am glad to see how they are conserving much more water now, they will have to continue to do this with potential droughts and more people. Also further down in the article it mentioned less water taken from the Colorado river because more snow melt water was available from up north. It is not a good combination when we choose to live in areas that are extremely dry to begin with and prone to fires. It's like living on the coast and dealing with ocean storms.

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