JustinRP37 Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 Why do so many of us northerners pretend that sea level rise will not affect our region? New Jersey, NYC, Long Island, etc are all at a major risk for sea level rise. Sure Florida is in big trouble but we can't pretend that our infrastructure is ready for climate change either. After all CT leads the nation power grid disruption with the majors storms we have experienced during the past decade. Lower Manhattan is especially prone to flooding as are the subway tunnels as Hurricane Sandy showed us. Sunny day flooding events are up all along the Jersey shore. Let's also point out that over the past decade the tri-state has had more direct effects from tropical systems than the eastern shore of Florida. All regions have risks from climate change, but I won't bet my life savings on Albany or Buffalo becoming major draws in the next 20-30 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 At least extreme coastal areas will be affected. The state, through federal grants, bought my property where my house once stood on Barnegat Bay. While I don't attribute Sandy to global warming, the coastal water levels will rise. Luckily I'll be dead by then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 Watches up for most of NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Moonlit Sky Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 16 minutes ago, Dark Star said: At least extreme coastal areas will be affected. The state, through federal grants, bought my property where my house once stood on Barnegat Bay. While I don't attribute Sandy to global warming, the coastal water levels will rise. Luckily I'll be dead by then... Was that through the Blue Acres program? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 I don't want to make lite of the situation but if the water rose a foot over the next 50 years, we have 50 years to build a 2 foot wall. Now if the water was going to rise 10 feet over the next 50 yrs., now the concern is getting serious. I remember Long Island Sound many years ago and to be honest, it doesn't look any different, except a little cleaner. Now I admit I never took any measurements but just saying. By the way, I have read in more than one place that the sea level rise in the Miami area is not just sea level rise but sinking land as well. When the Antarctic starts to melt at a rapid pace, then we have to worry. That is where 90% of the worlds ice is and 70% of the worlds fresh water. As far as Sandy goes, the weather folks were warning us since the 1970s that it was only a matter of time before we got the next big hurricane in our area. The one they always referred as comparison was the 1938 storm. Well if took some 40 years but we finally got it in 2012. That was almost 10 years ago and counting, hopefully for those on the coast the count continues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 I have not gotten any measurable rain here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 ~I80 corridor = the new sunbelt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 17 hours ago, JerseyWx said: This weather is terrible if you enjoy the beach/pool. Last weeks weather was far better. That means the beach or a good pool has to be accessible. Sure there are some nice beaches on the lakes but when it's 90° or more they're just as unpleasant as the backyard. I'll take 75 any day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 31 minutes ago, A Moonlit Sky said: Was that through the Blue Acres program? No. Ocean County and the surrounding towns developed their own control programs to help prevent property damage from floods. The money came from the federal government, but not through Blue Acres. They bought up quite a few properties in the Good Luck Point area in Bayville which were utterly devastated. Amazingly, I watched the winds reduce along the Jersey shore before Sandy hit. Unfortunately, the surge was not affected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 I think the worst time for bad tropical storms in our area was the 1950s thru the early 60s. In 1954 Carol was bad, and Hazel gave NYC its highest ever wind gust over 100mph in the battery area. In 1955 two storms within a week caused possibly the worst flooding in the history of Connecticut and affected the entire area. 1961 hurricane Donna was very bad in the area. So in that 7 year span numerous bad tropical storms caused much devastation in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 3 hours ago, lee59 said: The thing that bothers me is the alarmist that make it sound like the end. Or the deliberate attempt to make the stats seem one way when they aren't I hear many people mention the term alarmist in regard to climate change. But I see very little alarmism in terms of the actual global response to climate change. Complacency will probably turn out the biggest risk that we face. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: I hear many people mention the term alarmist in regard to climate change. But I see very little alarmism in terms of the actual global response to climate change. Complacency will probably turn out the biggest risk that we face. That could be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Many people who have been leaving California relocated to around Boise, Idaho. That is one of the hottest property markets in the country right now. A bunch of Hurricane Maria refugees from Puerto Rico wound up in Buffalo. Past history Is full of examples of people migrating from the tropics to more temperate zones. But this will probably accelerate in coming decades. Is Idaho prepared for climate refugees from California? https://www.idahostatesman.com/opinion/readers-opinion/article237278474.html Wildfires in California are igniting more than chaparral and forest. They are firing up additional reasons Californians will seek safer, blackout-free homes in Idaho. An Oct. 28 San Francisco Chronicle article sounded an ominous alarm: “fires intensified fears California has become almost too dangerous to inhabit.” This is exceedingly bad news for Idaho. For our state to remain the place we love, Idahoans should be cheering for California to address its problems lest they soon become our own. We should acknowledge that the entire arid American West shares a common danger, and Idaho is not exempt. https://www.wsj.com/articles/americans-up-and-moved-during-the-pandemic-heres-where-they-went-11620734566?reflink=share_mobilewebshare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 I’m in Salt Lake City right now. lt is 100°F.. The high is expected to be 103. Tomorrow 105. For perspective the normal high is 82F Take a look at any weather app I and go out two weeks. I don’t see one day that is not 15° above normal or more. This is a very scary Ridge. Hope that it does not move east and hope that these people catch a break out here because it is dry as a bone and we are just getting started. This is a tinderbox. Very bad situation out west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 andddd the storms head to my south awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 Showers and thunderstorms are likely tonight. Tomorrow will be turn partly sunny and seasonably warm. Overall, the first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal. Afterward, a warming trend could develop. Out West, an extreme heatwave continued in the Southwest, including Phoenix. High temperatures included: Billings: 103° (old record: 98°, 1959) ***Hottest so early in the season*** Casper: 99° (old record: 96°, 2018) Death Valley, CA: 118° Denver: 98° Flagstaff: 92° (tied record set in 1974) Great Falls: 99° (old record: 98°, 1987) Medicine Hat, AB: 99° (old record: 86°, 2009) Phoenix: 113° (smoke shrouded the sun at times) Salt Lake City: 103° (old record: 101°, 1974) Tucson: 112° (old record: 111°, 1993) The extreme heat will continue through much of this week. The temperature could reach 115° on multiple days in Phoenix, especially during tomorrow through Friday. For reference, Phoenix's daily records for the June 15-18 period are posted below. Record high maximum temperatures: June 15: 115°, 1974 June 16: 115°, 1974 June 17: 114°, 2014 June 18: 115°, 1989 and 2015 Record high minimum temperatures: June 15: 88°, 1936 June 16: 86°, 1988 June 17: 88°, 1986 and 2008 June 18: 88°, 2008 Phoenix will very likely see the earliest temperature above 115° on record. The existing record was set on June 19, 2016 when the temperature reached 118°. That record was tied in 2017. This unseasonable heat will extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. It remains uncertain whether this extreme air mass will impact the region at some point later in the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was +16.24 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.513 today. On June 12 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.976 (RMM). The June 11-adjusted amplitude was 0.449 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. With Phoenix very likely to reach 115° or above this week, that development could provide another hint of a warmer than normal summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June had a warmer than July-August. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.2° (2.2° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 Currently have a decent storm moving thru, pouring here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 70 degrees and raining here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIWeatherGuy29 Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 Storms for the most part are looking to miss me to the south. Last Wednesday was the last time it rained here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 Couple claps of thunder with 0.25" rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 .02 so far for the day. We have SSE wind that will kill the Tstorms but at the same time they seem to hold together off the south shore as they pass off the Jersey coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 On 6/13/2021 at 7:20 AM, bluewave said: You can see how many summer top 10s there have been at JFK and other stations just since 2010. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 85.4 0 2 2016 83.8 0 - 2011 83.8 0 3 2015 83.3 0 4 2020 83.2 0 - 1971 83.2 0 5 1991 83.1 0 - 1983 83.1 0 - 1949 83.1 0 6 1966 83.0 0 7 2012 82.9 0 8 2008 82.8 0 9 2002 82.7 0 - 1999 82.7 0 10 2005 82.6 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2016 69.2 0 2 2010 68.9 0 3 1984 68.8 0 4 2015 68.7 0 5 2020 68.2 0 6 1983 68.1 0 7 2011 67.9 0 8 2013 67.7 0 - 2012 67.7 0 - 1981 67.7 0 9 2005 67.6 0 - 1995 67.6 0 10 1955 67.5 0 - 1952 67.5 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 77.1 0 2 2016 76.5 0 3 2015 76.0 0 4 2011 75.8 0 5 2020 75.7 0 6 1983 75.6 0 7 1984 75.4 0 8 2012 75.3 0 - 1991 75.3 0 9 1971 75.2 0 - 1949 75.2 0 10 2005 75.1 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 32 0 2 1983 26 0 3 2002 21 0 4 1971 18 0 - 1949 18 0 5 2005 17 0 - 1991 17 0 6 2012 16 0 - 1959 16 3 - 1955 16 2 7 2016 15 0 - 1995 15 0 - 1961 15 0 8 1999 14 0 - 1988 14 0 - 1966 14 0 - 1952 14 0 9 2011 13 0 - 1993 13 0 - 1984 13 0 - 1977 13 0 - 1970 13 0 - 1969 13 0 - 1963 13 0 10 2020 12 0 - 2015 12 0 - 2006 12 0 - 2003 12 0 - 1978 12 0 - 1968 12 0 - 1953 12 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Missing Count 1 2016 55 0 2 2015 53 0 3 2010 51 0 4 2020 49 0 - 2018 49 0 5 2012 48 0 - 1983 48 0 6 1980 47 0 - 1971 47 0 7 1984 46 0 8 2013 44 0 - 1999 44 0 - 1955 44 2 9 1959 41 3 10 2005 40 0 - 1995 40 0 - 1981 40 0 - 1970 40 0 - 1949 40 0 Maximum 30-Day Mean Avg Temperature for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Missing Days 1 81.3 2010-07-25 0 2 80.4 2011-08-02 0 3 80.3 1983-08-10 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1966 104 0 2 2011 103 0 3 1999 102 0 - 1963 102 0 4 2010 101 0 - 1993 101 0 - 1957 101 1 - 1948 101 198 5 2013 100 0 - 1983 100 0 - 1972 100 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2016 82 0 - 1999 82 0 2 1983 81 0 - 1980 81 0 - 1959 81 3 3 2019 80 0 - 2013 80 0 - 2010 80 0 - 2006 80 0 - 2002 80 0 - 2001 80 0 - 1993 80 0 - 1981 80 0 4 2020 79 0 - 2017 79 0 - 2015 79 0 - 2012 79 0 - 2011 79 0 - 1995 79 0 - 1978 79 0 Maximum 7-Day Mean Avg Temperature for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Missing Days 1 86.4 2013-07-21 0 2 86.4 2013-07-20 0 3 85.4 2013-07-22 0 4 85.1 2013-07-19 0 - 85.1 2006-08-04 0 - 85.1 1993-07-13 0 5 85.1 1983-07-19 0 6 84.9 1983-07-18 0 7 84.9 2006-08-05 0 8 84.8 1993-07-14 0 9 84.7 1981-07-13 0 10 84.4 2013-07-23 0 - 84.4 2011-07-24 0 Thanks this is more like it! A lot of my favorite summers are in the high temp list. 2010 is still lapping the field though like Secretariat at the Belmont lol. I wonder if those 90 and 95 and 100 day numbers from 2010 will ever be exceeded? Look at how 2010 and 1983 are both miles ahead of the rest of the field for 90 degree highs, but 2010 puts some distance between it and 1983 even so..... Do you also have a list of most 95+ and 100+ days for JFK too, Chris? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 Heavy rain here in Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 Yeah more heavy showers popped up overhead here with 0.51" now on the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 First measurable precip of the day here falling now. Sky is really lighting up to the south over the ocean. Makes no sense why the Atlantic and the LI Sound do so much better with storms than LI itself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIWeatherGuy29 Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 Had mostly light rain here with some steady rain for a short period. The Majority of rain missed me to the west and east. The storms fell apart before making it to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 Picked up 0.60" of rain for the day. Current temp 68 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 75degs.(65/84), or about +2.0. Month to date is 73.0[+3.5]. Should be about 73.8[+2.9] by the 23rd. Last week of June should have some +10 to +15 days. 67*(96%RH) here at 6am, scattered clouds. 78* by 3pm. 82* by 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 Only .06 inch of rain in this last event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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