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2021 Drought Thread


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Overlying month-to-date precip on the drought map as of June 17, the biggest screw zones are north central Iowa, most of Minnesota, NW part of Lower Michigan as well as the Thumb area.  At least the holes in Illinois and Indiana had rain earlier in the spring.

drought.png

precip.jpg

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There's at least the potential to really make some big progress on this in some areas in the coming days, instead of the more modest chipping away.  But I go back go my slave to convection phrase.  You have to see it play out in the right spots.  

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The nearly 1" of rain the other night seems to have done absolutely nothing for the grass... areas that were brown are as brown as before.  This surprised me because I expected to see at least some greening.  

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3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

The nearly 1" of rain the other night seems to have done absolutely nothing for the grass... areas that were brown are as brown as before.  This surprised me because I expected to see at least some greening.  

It takes a few days.  You probably see greening first happening in low areas where the water could pond.  Sloping areas where the water ran off quickly are likely to stay brown.  Same for places with little shade near hot pavement.  Those are always the last to come back.  That's the problem with downpours on top of dry soil.  A bunch of the water runs off high areas before it has a chance to get deep into the soil.  Gentle rains over several hours irrigate much more evenly.

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3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Euro has some enormous amounts in a stripe from east central IL to southern MI.  Heavy amounts farther north too.

Kalamazoo will probably have flooding if the current models play out, which is crazy considering how dry it was there only a little over a week ago.

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14 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

We should play a game.  What will the yearly precip deficit be (or if anyone is bold enough, what will the surplus be) at ORD at the end of Tuesday, June 29?  Current deficit for the year is -7.17"

Minor point, but if anyone is actually interested in taking a crack at this, don't forget to account for the fact that average weekly rain over the next week is right around 1".  So even though the current deficit is 7.17", you'd actually need slightly over 8" in the next week to overcome it entirely.

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26 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

We should play a game.  What will the yearly precip deficit be (or if anyone is bold enough, what will the surplus be) at ORD at the end of Tuesday, June 29?  Current deficit for the year is -7.17"

-2.50

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

We should play a game.  What will the yearly precip deficit be (or if anyone is bold enough, what will the surplus be) at ORD at the end of Tuesday, June 29?  Current deficit for the year is -7.17"

-4.36"

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On 6/22/2021 at 5:21 PM, Hoosier said:

We should play a game.  What will the yearly precip deficit be (or if anyone is bold enough, what will the surplus be) at ORD at the end of Tuesday, June 29?  Current deficit for the year is -7.17"

Answer:  yearly deficit of -5.19".   Alek wins.  Was extremely close with his guess of -5.1" 

Good rains fell, but ORD was not in one of the heavier swaths.  June is running a nice precip surplus now, and almost half of this year's precip at ORD has fallen in June.

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