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2021 Drought Thread


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I figure we are at the point where a drought thread could be useful. Most of the forum has had a very dry last 2.5 months and drought is really starting to spread over much of the region. For instance, Madison has only had .01 inch and a few traces of rain since April 11th. If we do not get a wet week out of this upcoming pattern here we are going to be in serious trouble for this summer. 1915, 1934, 1958, 1976, and 1989 are all years that have had similarly dry springs and with the exception of 1915 all ended up well below average for precipitation. We will see how this plays out, but right now it is looking to be a drought filled summer for the Midwest.

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:devilsmiley:

Certainly been a dry run.  Not sure how it's going to play out.  It's possible that it reverses itself soon and it ends up not being a big deal, but longer term predictability with these things isn't always the greatest.  Looking back on 2012 (which I am not saying we are heading to something like that), we had the obnoxiously warm March but I don't think anybody really thought such an intense drought was going to follow that summer.  It developed quickly and ended up being a once or twice in a lifetime type of drought for some areas.

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it's here, would probably look so much worse if we hadn't had a long slow steady early spring snow melt or two

just took a day of sun with warm temps and wind to really get things crackin'

i actually watered the courtyard garden yesterday which i can never remember having to do this early

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Through 5/2, ORD has gone 124 consecutive days without a calendar day precip of 0.50" or greater.  This is the 5th longest streak on record for Chicago.  

If the streak can make it through today, which looks like a possibility, then it would become a virtual lock to get into 3rd place given the upcoming forecast.

The top streak is really in a league of its own.

 

#of days, ending date

253, 4/16/1963

173, 3/27/1977

127, 2/10/1956

126, 2/6/1881

124, 5/2/2021 (still ongoing)

122, 6/19/1887

116, 3/10/1927

112, 3/20/1992

107, 2/25/1899

106, 2/20/1913

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Precip is on an overall weakening trend and ORD will come in well under 1/2".  So today will be day 125 since the last calendar day 0.50"+.

Even if you go by 2 day precip amounts, the last 0.50"+ event was 1/30-1/31. 

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6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Precip is on an overall weakening trend and ORD will come in well under 1/2".  So today will be day 125 since the last calendar day 0.50"+.

Even if you go by 2 day precip amounts, the last 0.50"+ event was 1/30-1/31. 

Speaking of droughts at ORD... Still have not officially had a TS since last November.

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2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Speaking of droughts at ORD... Still have not officially had a TS since last November.

That's crazy.

I do remember having a day or two with thunder imby this year.

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3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Through 5/2, ORD has gone 124 consecutive days without a calendar day precip of 0.50" or greater.  This is the 5th longest streak on record for Chicago.  

If the streak can make it through today, which looks like a possibility, then it would become a virtual lock to get into 3rd place given the upcoming forecast.

The top streak is really in a league of its own.

 

#of days, ending date

253, 4/16/1963

173, 3/27/1977

127, 2/10/1956

126, 2/6/1881

124, 5/2/2021 (still ongoing)

122, 6/19/1887

116, 3/10/1927

112, 3/20/1992

107, 2/25/1899

106, 2/20/1913

Looking at this more closely, almost all of these were more of a fall/winter thing.  Impressive to keep it going this long in Spring.

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8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Looking at this more closely, almost all of these were more of a fall/winter thing.  Impressive to keep it going this long in Spring.

That’s what I noticed. The current streak and the 1887 one are the only ones that have survived April.

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The good news for this month vs what happened in 2012 is it'll be cool for the next week and pattern overall is forecast to be on the active side into the medium-long range. If this month doesn't come in at or above normal and the ridge starts to build in June, that would become more problematic. The rain we've gotten here in the southwest suburbs over the past week, while not a lot, has helped keep things pretty green.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

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18 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

gfs with the best heavy rain look in a while for metro this weekend

Euro has been relatively steady with holding the better rains south.  We shall see what the 12z run does.

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Today will be 128 days since the last 0.50"+ calendar day rainfall at ORD, thus making it the 3rd longest streak without one.  

This streak would have to go through June 20 to get to 2nd place. 

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On 5/6/2021 at 9:33 PM, Stebo said:

dangerous game betting on the GFS these days.

You called that one right. Northern extent of precip. shown on GFS and NAM didn't materialize. Euro,CMC, and Ukie much better with this system

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You called that one right. Northern extent of precip. shown on GFS and NAM didn't materialize. Euro,CMC, and Ukie much better with this system

Euro was well south at the start, so really neither did well in the end.

 

NAM was bad with handling the snow potential.

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From March 1 through May 15, it is the 2nd driest meteorological Spring for Chicago...

1887:  1.60"

2021:  2.32"

1958:  2.47"

1934:  2.55"

1989:  3.42"

1994:  3.56"

2005:  3.62"

1986:  3.78"

1895:  3.93"

1886:  4.02"

 

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21 minutes ago, dmc76 said:

Major drought setting up in lower Michigan. We avoid any real rains. 

Sometimes Augusts bring heavy rains to our area. I seem to remember some of our biggest floods occurring that month.Or hope you set up under a ring of fire pattern but this is setting up like a long watering season

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