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2021 Drought Thread


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That Chicago to Grand Rapids line has been a dry patch for sure.  Even the State of Michigan, you can almost draw a line at the Indiana boundary.  Nearly 80% of Michigan is in D0 or greater.  Not a good look for summer.  Hopefully we can score something soon.

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Time for record watch...

Obviously still have 11 days to go in the month, but given how things have been and will continue to be for the near future, it’s worth watching. As of end of day today, ORD will sit at 2.43” of precip for spring 2021.

Driest springs on record for Chicago:
1. 2.73” - 1887
2. 3.20” - 1934
3. 3.87” - 1994
4. 4.08” - 1886
5. 4.17” - 1885


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1 hour ago, WestMichigan said:

That Chicago to Grand Rapids line has been a dry patch for sure.  Even the State of Michigan, you can almost draw a line at the Indiana boundary.  Nearly 80% of Michigan is in D0 or greater.  Not a good look for summer.  Hopefully we can score something soon.

Lake shadow garbage that always occurs this time of year will make West Michigan worse.

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10 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Who would have thought the same region with 1-2 feet of snow on the ground 3 months ago would be talking legit drought.

 

I picked a bad year to plant some new grass seed in a few spots (patch work). I am ALREADY sick of watering the lawn and no end in sight.

 I wasn't here but I think most of the snow that was on the ground in February was High ratio/low qpf water content. Add that it all melted with no additional rain. I didn't see my 1st rain drop until 29 days after I got home March 1st, so it's not all that hard to believe that this area is in a drought. Days like today are my favorite. Mid 80's, low humidity.

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2 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

 I wasn't here but I think most of the snow that was on the ground in February was High ratio/low qpf water content. Add that it all melted with no additional rain. I didn't see my 1st rain drop until 29 days after I got home March 1st, so it's not all that hard to believe that this area is in a drought. Days like today are my favorite. Mid 80's, low humidity.

Each snow itself was higher ratio as it fell but there was still 1.5"-2" water content in the pack at peak.  It melted at the end of February with aid of no rain and as you mentioned, March was like a desert.  This weather would be great in July but again, not a fan of the daily watering. As usual, from frost to heat in the blink of an eye in May.

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Not bashing, but just saying that drought prediction still has some work to do.  Look at these 2 maps.

Released April 30, showing drought removal likely during May in IL/southern MI:

month_drought.thumb.png.dcada9d37fdc49116b5a2e747961eca4.png

 

Released May 20, now drought removal not likely in those areas... through August! 

season_drought.thumb.png.cf2fb74bbe209419e9071bd8919e24ca.png

It did end up being a good forecast on the southern fringes, as there are no longer drought conditions around the I-80 corridor in IN/OH.

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3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

mid week got that dry frontal passage feel

Late week looks like a better shot at some rain.  Hopefully the impressive sub 0.5" streak holds... would be a shame to lose it on a squeaker.

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10 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Late week looks like a better shot at some rain.  Hopefully the impressive sub 0.5" streak holds... would be a shame to lose it on a squeaker.

Watch Mother Nature pencil you in for 0.60".

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4 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

miss south 

Tough times

LOT yesterday

The main target of concern in the long term period is the
potential for a soaking rainfall Thursday night into early Friday
morning as an upper-level wave and associated surface low swing
through the Great Lakes. While still several days away, WPC-based
ensemble clustering shows that ~50% of all ECMWF/GFS/CMC ensemble
members drop a swath of 0.5"+ of rain across northern Illinois
and northwest Indiana. The ECMWF ensemble itself demonstrates a
50-70% chance that 24-hour rainfall will exceed 0.5", as well,
though within across a broad swath indicative of ensemble variance
of the rainfall footprint. Over the coming days, we expect the
spatial extent of rainfall in ensemble forecast guidance to
narrow. Even so, confidence is cautiously growing in a much-needed
round of rainfall across parts if not most of the area.

 

LOT today

Forecast deterministic and ensemble model guidance is in fair
agreement that a surface low will track roughly along the warm
front from central Iowa through central Illinois Thursday evening
into Friday while modestly deepening beneath a decidedly
positively- tilted trough. Compared to 24 hours ago, there is a
growing trend that an episode of active convection will occur
along and south of the warm front Thursday night into Friday. A
quick glimpse at forecast shear, instability, and PWATs certainly
lends support to a threat for severe weather and soaking rain
rates along/south of the front. Pinpointing where the front will
stall will be a great target for future forecast packages, with
the current iteration favoring the boundary a county or two south
of our forecast area.

At any rate, Friday still looks miserable with increasingly gusty
northeast winds off Lake Michigan, mostly cloudy skies, on- and-
off showers, and highs only in the 50s. Lakeshore locations will
face the worst conditions with 30-35 mph gusts off the lake and
highs only in the lower 50s... Not a great day to be out on a
boat. With the trend toward a round active convection to our
south, overall precipitation amounts locally may not be as high as
originally thought especially as one heads toward the IL/WI state
line. However, our forecast still favors at least some rain for
everyone.
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“some rain for everyone” Hedging it.  Need more than 0.25 to put a dent.  Will get the miserable cold rain feel no matter what.  Can easily get 4x that amount in 30 minutes with a  warm sunny afternoon and a well placed t-storm, but probably not since this year is cursed.

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16 minutes ago, frostfern said:

“some rain for everyone” Hedging it.  Need more than 0.25 to put a dent.  Will get the miserable cold rain feel no matter what.  Can easily get 4x that amount in 30 minutes with a  warm sunny afternoon and a well placed t-storm, but probably not since this year is cursed.

I'd argue well over 0.25"... and the rains must be more frequent.  Most of this sub averages about 0.10-0.15" of precip per day at this time of year.  If you get a quarter inch and then go just a few days without rain, you are right back where you started. 

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1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

yup need widespread 2"+

If its going to be a day of cold rain, I’ll take the 2”.  Any less than 0.5” is just insult to injury.  If the weather is going to suck anyways, why can’t we at least put a dent in the drought before the heat comes back.

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On 5/20/2021 at 12:01 PM, Chicago Storm said:

Time for record watch...

Obviously still have 11 days to go in the month, but given how things have been and will continue to be for the near future, it’s worth watching. As of end of day today, ORD will sit at 2.43” of precip for spring 2021.

Driest springs on record for Chicago:
1. 2.73” - 1887
2. 3.20” - 1934
3. 3.87” - 1994
4. 4.08” - 1886
5. 4.17” - 1885


.

As of this writing, ORD is at 2.45" for met Spring.  A top 3 driest finish looks like a virtual lock, with a pretty decent chance to finish at #2.  #1 would take a minor miracle.

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As of this writing, ORD is at 2.45" for met Spring.  A top 3 driest finish looks like a virtual lock, with a pretty decent chance to finish at #2.  #1 would take a minor miracle.

I wouldn’t be so sure yet.

Tonight and Thursday could still throw a wrench into things.


.
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11 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


I wouldn’t be so sure yet.

Tonight and Thursday could still throw a wrench into things.


.

Anything is possible.  I guess I could hit a halfcourt shot with a moving basket.

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