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2021 Atlantic Hurricane season


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11 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Literally above average to well above average in every single relevant category. 

xgXCo48.jpg

Yet the impression is the season is slow. Both the  GOM and  east  coast  low are still trending weaker, hardly worthy of peak season when things were supposed to be so favorable. The Azores thing  no one  cares about. The  2 out  in the east atlantic will either dissipate  or  bebop north.

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4 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Yet the impression is the season is slow.

No it's not. Not sure why you have that feeling. We had a long tracking Elsa in early July, a typical lull in later July, and then pretty much non stop activity since early August including three majors and two landfalling majors. How much more could you ask for by the season midpoint?

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1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

Yet the impression is the season is slow. Both the  GOM and  east  coast  low are still trending weaker, hardly worthy of peak season when things were supposed to be so favorable. The Azores thing  no one  cares about. The  2 out  in the east atlantic will either dissipate  or  bebop north.

You are the worst poster I've ever seen on a forum 

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14 hours ago, ldub23 said:

I wouldnt call this active for  peak season, especially with a  la  nina. The east  coast  low and GOM  low both look very weak. The MDR hurricane looks for  now to follow  Larry.

Lol

Your prediction already failed. And it will continue to fail. 

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5 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Yet the impression is the season is slow. Both the  GOM and  east  coast  low are still trending weaker, hardly worthy of peak season when things were supposed to be so favorable. The Azores thing  no one  cares about. The  2 out  in the east atlantic will either dissipate  or  bebop north.

Just like clockwork a new storm was just named with U.S impacts expected. 

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29 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Just like clockwork a new storm was just named with U.S impacts expected. 

Not to mention with the usually bearish NHC forecasting 65mph which means we could easily see a hurricane landfall as long as the center stays east.

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Just a casual observer here - but constantly, and in group fashion, ripping on a guy whose opinion you disagree with isn’t a great look. Perhaps you don’t like the style in which he delivers his message, there is after all a lot to be said about form over substance, nonetheless the blowback is a little extreme for a discussion among people who are passionate about the same thing. 2 cents.

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13 minutes ago, Cholorob said:

Just a casual observer here - but constantly, and in group fashion, ripping on a guy whose opinion you disagree with isn’t a great look. Perhaps you don’t like the style in which he delivers his message, there is after all a lot to be said about form over substance, nonetheless the blowback is a little extreme for a discussion among people who are passionate about the same thing. 2 cents.

It's one thing if someone says they think a season may be inactive and then provide reasoning for it, which I don't have a problem with at all and it's great to discuss different indicators for how active a season may or may not be.

But continually trolling the forum with blatantly false statements is totally different and needs to be called out IMO

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53 minutes ago, Cholorob said:

Just a casual observer here - but constantly, and in group fashion, ripping on a guy whose opinion you disagree with isn’t a great look. Perhaps you don’t like the style in which he delivers his message, there is after all a lot to be said about form over substance, nonetheless the blowback is a little extreme for a discussion among people who are passionate about the same thing. 2 cents.

I’ve been lurking here since 2017 and I remember him doing this even then, 3 years before I even made an account…

He’s obviously a weather enthusiast because you wouldn’t be on this site otherwise, but it became pretty obvious he is a troll after a while and to be honest, I really don’t get why someone would troll a bunch of like minded people. Especially in smaller community like this one

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21 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

I’ve been lurking here since 2017 and I remember him doing this even then, 3 years before I even made an account…

He’s obviously a weather enthusiast because you wouldn’t be on this site otherwise, but it became pretty obvious he is a troll after a while and to be honest, I really don’t get why someone would troll a bunch of like minded people. Especially in smaller community like this one

Yeah go back and look at the 2017 thread. He said Harvey was a bust after it degenerated into an open wave and then said the rest of the season was going to be inactive...

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6 hours ago, cptcatz said:

Yeah go back and look at the 2017 thread. He said Harvey was a bust after it degenerated into an open wave and then said the rest of the season was going to be inactive...

Does anyone remember the infamous troll named Rainstorm (jxdama on a prior board (WWBB) going back nearly 20 years)? "She" was relentless with her downcasting, the same kind of troll. She always used to talk about a WNW steering flow on the east coast even if it weren't true. She even did this just before her supposed area on the VA coast got slammed in 2003 by Isabel! Truth is stranger than fiction!

Back on topic,here is the 12Z EPS 360 with a focus on the AEW due to emerge from Africa early this week: ~10% of the members threaten the US east coast:

ecmen_12_mslps_ta_h_0360.png.1a778e3f0dc0528522ddebb1d40c71f1.png

 

 

 

 

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18Z GEFS hour 276 has many active members from the wave that's soon to come off Africa (18Z GFS developed this for the first time but it weakened in the W Atlantic):

 

 gfsen_18_mslps_ta_h_0276.png.7178a837a8d1ff1ff341637aa205cfdd.png

Edit: 10% (3) of it members hit the SE US 9/25-6 with one of these skirting NC and then going further up the east coast. Then a 4th member hits NC from the SE at the end (9/28).

This may be one to watch closely for late month.

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2 hours ago, GaWx said:

18Z GEFS hour 276 has many active members from the wave that's soon to come off Africa (18Z GFS developed this for the first time but it weakened in the W Atlantic):

 

 gfsen_18_mslps_ta_h_0276.png.7178a837a8d1ff1ff341637aa205cfdd.png

Edit: 10% (3) of it members hit the SE US 9/25-6 with one of these skirting NC and then going further up the east coast. Then a 4th member hits NC from the SE at the end (9/28).

This may be one to watch closely for late month.

Steering pattern generally would support a close approach/threat if something could make it to the SW Atlantic in about ten days. Agree this is one to watch should it develop.

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3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nothing really interesting at all on the models going forward. We all know that can change in a heartbeat.

Yeah I wouldn't give up on 95L. The models showing a weak storm now may be bad in the long term. Instead of intensifying in the eastern Atlantic and turning out to sea, the weak wave may now move towards the Caribbean or Bahamas. The Bahamas/Florida Straits area has a long history of blowing up storms very quickly...

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48 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Well this season may not be playing out exactly like us weenies had anticipated, but just like last season, just about everything is making landfall, most of it in the CONUS.

It'll be interesting to see how the back half compares to last season.  Last season had FIVE major hurricanes form AFTER October 1, three of them making landfall as a major, and a fourth making landfall just shy of a major.  That would be crazy active for an entire season, let alone just October and November.

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