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April 2021

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1 hour ago, crossbowftw3 said:

6z came back west

 

also I doubt you get 6” of snow when considering this is happening in the morning. Gotta account for sun angle killing ratios.

Even if you get moderate snow for 4 hours or so. You need some impressive rates for this time of year to make it stick 

He’s got some elevation so that helps allot this time of year. Mt. Pocono at over 2,000’ will do real well.

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11 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

He’s got some elevation so that helps allot this time of year. Mt. Pocono at over 2,000’ will do real well.

Of course, comparatively speaking I only have 750-800’ whereas Liberty is 1500’. 1-3” for the far NW people still works with him probably winning the jackpot at 4” or so 

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18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro was meh if you love warm weather 

Expected us to deal with the ULL cut off near New England 4/4 - 4/9 so with that came the onshore flow and potential cloudiness.  It may windup near normal but temps may stay capped in the upper 50s / low 60s max and perhaps a 40s day or two depending on the influnce of the onshore /NE flow.  April should see a migration to a much warmer second half and feature a warm or hot period later or to close in the month. 

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These cool downs and blockier intervals following an early 80°+ day have become common in recent years. So the early April freeze coming up following the 80s last week isn’t a surprise. The first 80° at Newark has moved up nearly one month since the 1970s. The average back then was 4-23 and 3-30 since 2011. But the last freeze date has only moved up 4 days over the same period from 4-7 in the 70s to 4-3 since 2010.

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
First
Value
Last
Value
Difference
Minimum 03-29 (1977) 09-16 (1971) 127
Mean 04-23 10-05 165
Maximum 05-19 (1975) 11-01 (1974) 204
1970 05-02 (1970) 80 10-08 (1970) 80 158
1971 05-11 (1971) 82 09-16 (1971) 85 127
1972 04-19 (1972) 87 09-27 (1972) 85 160
1973 04-19 (1973) 80 10-05 (1973) 82 168
1974 04-22 (1974) 81 11-01 (1974) 81 192
1975 05-19 (1975) 81 10-15 (1975) 84 148
1976 04-16 (1976) 82 09-20 (1976) 82 156
1977 03-29 (1977) 80 09-19 (1977) 84 173
1978 04-01 (1978) 82 10-23 (1978) 82 204
1979 04-23 (1979) 80 10-23 (1979) 80 182
1980 05-03 (1980) 83 09-23 (1980) 85 142


 

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
First
Value
Last
Value
Difference
Minimum 02-21 (2018) 09-28 (2014) 167
Mean 03-29 10-08 192
Maximum 04-18 (2015) 10-21 (2017) 231
2011 03-18 (2011) 80 10-10 (2011) 85 205
2012 04-15 (2012) 80 10-05 (2012) 81 172
2013 04-09 (2013) 85 10-07 (2013) 80 180
2014 04-13 (2014) 83 09-28 (2014) 87 167
2015 04-18 (2015) 82 10-09 (2015) 81 173
2016 03-09 (2016) 82 10-19 (2016) 87 223
2017 04-10 (2017) 82 10-21 (2017) 81 193
2018 02-21 (2018) 80 10-11 (2018) 81 231
2019 04-08 (2019) 80 10-07 (2019) 80 181
2020 03-20 (2020) 80 09-28 (2020) 81 191
2021 03-26 (2021) 84 - - -
Frost/Freeze Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Season Length
Minimum 03-21 (1973) 10-19 (1976) 189
Mean 04-07 11-06 213
Maximum 04-17 (1980) 11-29 (1979) 235
1970 04-11 (1970) 32 11-23 (1970) 26 225
1971 03-26 (1971) 31 11-08 (1971) 32 226
1972 04-09 (1972) 29 10-20 (1972) 31 193
1973 03-21 (1973) 32 11-10 (1973) 31 233
1974 04-10 (1974) 31 10-19 (1974) 31 191
1975 04-13 (1975) 32 10-30 (1975) 32 199
1976 04-12 (1976) 27 10-19 (1976) 30 189
1977 04-09 (1977) 26 11-12 (1977) 32 216
1978 04-03 (1978) 31 11-25 (1978) 32 235
1979 04-08 (1979) 31 11-29 (1979) 32 234
1980 04-17 (1980) 30 11-03 (1980) 30 199


 

Frost/Freeze Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Season Length
Minimum 03-24 (2017) 10-19 (2015) 196
Mean 04-03 11-08 217
Maximum 04-17 (2020) 11-28 (2016) 244
2010 03-27 (2010) 28 11-27 (2010) 32 244
2011 03-29 (2011) 32 10-31 (2011) 32 215
2012 03-27 (2012) 30 11-06 (2012) 27 223
2013 04-04 (2013) 31 11-04 (2013) 32 213
2014 04-16 (2014) 31 11-08 (2014) 32 205
2015 03-29 (2015) 25 10-19 (2015) 31 203
2016 04-10 (2016) 31 11-28 (2016) 32 231
2017 03-24 (2017) 31 11-10 (2017) 25 230
2018 04-11 (2018) 32 11-10 (2018) 32 212
2019 04-01 (2019) 32 11-08 (2019) 29 220
2020 04-17 (2020) 32 10-31 (2020) 32 196
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17 hours ago, bluewave said:

These cool downs and blockier intervals following an early 80°+ day have become common in recent years. So the early April freeze coming up following the 80s last week isn’t a surprise. The first 80° at Newark has moved up nearly one month since the 1970s. The average back then was 4-23 and 3-30 since 2011. But the last freeze date has only moved up 4 days over the same period from 4-7 in the 70s to 4-3 since 2010.

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
First
Value
Last
Value
Difference
Minimum 03-29 (1977) 09-16 (1971) 127
Mean 04-23 10-05 165
Maximum 05-19 (1975) 11-01 (1974) 204
1970 05-02 (1970) 80 10-08 (1970) 80 158
1971 05-11 (1971) 82 09-16 (1971) 85 127
1972 04-19 (1972) 87 09-27 (1972) 85 160
1973 04-19 (1973) 80 10-05 (1973) 82 168
1974 04-22 (1974) 81 11-01 (1974) 81 192
1975 05-19 (1975) 81 10-15 (1975) 84 148
1976 04-16 (1976) 82 09-20 (1976) 82 156
1977 03-29 (1977) 80 09-19 (1977) 84 173
1978 04-01 (1978) 82 10-23 (1978) 82 204
1979 04-23 (1979) 80 10-23 (1979) 80 182
1980 05-03 (1980) 83 09-23 (1980) 85 142


 

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
First
Value
Last
Value
Difference
Minimum 02-21 (2018) 09-28 (2014) 167
Mean 03-29 10-08 192
Maximum 04-18 (2015) 10-21 (2017) 231
2011 03-18 (2011) 80 10-10 (2011) 85 205
2012 04-15 (2012) 80 10-05 (2012) 81 172
2013 04-09 (2013) 85 10-07 (2013) 80 180
2014 04-13 (2014) 83 09-28 (2014) 87 167
2015 04-18 (2015) 82 10-09 (2015) 81 173
2016 03-09 (2016) 82 10-19 (2016) 87 223
2017 04-10 (2017) 82 10-21 (2017) 81 193
2018 02-21 (2018) 80 10-11 (2018) 81 231
2019 04-08 (2019) 80 10-07 (2019) 80 181
2020 03-20 (2020) 80 09-28 (2020) 81 191
2021 03-26 (2021) 84 - - -
Frost/Freeze Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Season Length
Minimum 03-21 (1973) 10-19 (1976) 189
Mean 04-07 11-06 213
Maximum 04-17 (1980) 11-29 (1979) 235
1970 04-11 (1970) 32 11-23 (1970) 26 225
1971 03-26 (1971) 31 11-08 (1971) 32 226
1972 04-09 (1972) 29 10-20 (1972) 31 193
1973 03-21 (1973) 32 11-10 (1973) 31 233
1974 04-10 (1974) 31 10-19 (1974) 31 191
1975 04-13 (1975) 32 10-30 (1975) 32 199
1976 04-12 (1976) 27 10-19 (1976) 30 189
1977 04-09 (1977) 26 11-12 (1977) 32 216
1978 04-03 (1978) 31 11-25 (1978) 32 235
1979 04-08 (1979) 31 11-29 (1979) 32 234
1980 04-17 (1980) 30 11-03 (1980) 30 199


 

Frost/Freeze Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Season Length
Minimum 03-24 (2017) 10-19 (2015) 196
Mean 04-03 11-08 217
Maximum 04-17 (2020) 11-28 (2016) 244
2010 03-27 (2010) 28 11-27 (2010) 32 244
2011 03-29 (2011) 32 10-31 (2011) 32 215
2012 03-27 (2012) 30 11-06 (2012) 27 223
2013 04-04 (2013) 31 11-04 (2013) 32 213
2014 04-16 (2014) 31 11-08 (2014) 32 205
2015 03-29 (2015) 25 10-19 (2015) 31 203
2016 04-10 (2016) 31 11-28 (2016) 32 231
2017 03-24 (2017) 31 11-10 (2017) 25 230
2018 04-11 (2018) 32 11-10 (2018) 32 212
2019 04-01 (2019) 32 11-08 (2019) 29 220
2020 04-17 (2020) 32 10-31 (2020) 32 196

In the not too distant past our last freezes used to be after April 10th

Our last freezes are actually moving more quickly to earlier than our first freezes are moving to later.

 

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18 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

He’s got some elevation so that helps allot this time of year. Mt. Pocono at over 2,000’ will do real well.

I wonder how well my Poconos location will do at 2200 ft I am halfway between Mt Pocono and Allentown.

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March ended at 45.8[+3.3].

The first 8 days of April are averaging 48degs.(40/56), or about -1.0.

Looks like a boring two weeks coming up with little rain or T breakouts either way.          The first 15 days are averaging 49degs.(42/55), about -2.0----lower than indicated in late March for this period.  ***

44%(84%RH) here at 6am.    (was 56* at 2am)     42* at 11am.      45* by 1pm.       47* at 2pm.       51* near 5pm.        48* at 6pm.

***Monthly Forecast in trouble here?      Does show a progressive se. cooling  as March headed for the finish.

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.202104.gif

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4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

In the not too distant past our last freezes used to be after April 10th

Our last freezes are actually moving more quickly to earlier than our first freezes are moving to later.

 

The surprise for me with this data is how commonplace it was even going back to the 1970s, to hit 80 in April, with a mean of April 23rd.  Would never have guessed that.  Always thought that hitting 80 before May was a fluke.  Edit:  Same for 80s in October.  Always thought that was unusual too, but apparently that was commonplace in the 70s too.  The range between them has expanded for sure tho, as shown by bluewave.

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16 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

The surprise for me with this data is how commonplace it was even going back to the 1970s, to hit 80 in April, with a mean of April 23rd.  Would never have guessed that.  Always thought that hitting 80 before May was a fluke.  Edit:  Same for 80s in October.  Always thought that was unusual too, but apparently that was commonplace in the 70s too.  The range between them has expanded for sure tho, as shown by bluewave.

That's what I was alluding to in a post a week or so ago. Spring seemed like it used to be warmer and drier earlier in the season, like it was more pleasant for more days than it has been for the last decade or so. I don't remember so many days affected by back door cold fronts and I (think I) remember planting the garden earlier. 

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Morning thoughts...

Light rain will end this morning. The clouds will gradually give break during the afternoon. It will become breezy. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 40s and lower 50s across much of the region this afternoon before falling toward evening. Likely high temperatures include:

New York City (Central Park): 50°
Newark: 52°
Philadelphia: 52°

Tomorrow will be partly sunny, blustery and unseasonably cold.

30-Day Verification:

New York City (Central Park):
Average daily forecast: 53.7°
Average temperature: 54.2°
Average error: 2.1°

Newark:
Average daily forecast: 55.0°
Average temperature: 55.3°
Average error: 2.3°

Philadelphia:
Average daily forecast: 57.3°
Average temperature: 57.2°
Average error: 1.9°

 

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I believe this is the fastest NYC freeze chance after a spring (MAM) 80°day since 1978.
 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Min Temperature 
2021-03-26 82 52
2021-03-27 69 50
2021-03-28 60 48
2021-03-29 55 45
2021-03-30 61 42
2021-03-31 67 50
2021-04-01 M M

 

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Min Temperature 
1978-04-01 82 47
1978-04-02 61 37
1978-04-03 40 31


 

DBE99D66-4D4B-48ED-B982-19C37270DDB0.thumb.gif.b5469dc108db27b1c3e4714e6d7fc25d.gif

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As a strong cold front moved eastward, Binghamton picked up 2.7" snow. That broke the daily record of 1.4", which was set in 1991. It also raised that city's seasonal snowfall to 102.9", which ranks as 17th highest.

At 8 pm, readings in and around Newark and New York City were in the lower and middle 40s. Colder air continued to press into the region.

Overnight, New York City's Central Park will likely see its first April freeze since April 9, 2018. Both the MOS and NBM are in good agreement about such a freeze. In an area extending from the Gulf States to the Southeast, some near record and record low temperatures are possible tomorrow morning.

Tomorrow will be partly to mostly cloudy and unseasonably cold. The temperature will struggle to reach the lower 40s.

Moderation will occur during the weekend. Temperatures will likely return to the 60s in the northern Middle Atlantic region by Sunday or Monday.

Historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April. That warmer scenario remains the base case.
 
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around March 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses.

The SOI was -4.83 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.015 today.

On March 31 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.301 (RMM). The March 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.434 (RMM).

 

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I have a question about backdoor fronts. Why they do usually not have a problem with staying north of Southern New Jersey but almost all the time they have a big problem staying north of NYC and Long island. Would like it if it could actually stay north of NYC and Long Island this time. I'm so tired of these misrable overcast drizzly cold raw days every Spring and I would love nothing more than to see a warm sunny week into next weekend this time around. hate that I have to leave my local area and head to southern New Jersey to enjoy the warmth and sun. Would like that front to really stay up in northern new england this time or at least north of NYC and Long Island

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18 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

The surprise for me with this data is how commonplace it was even going back to the 1970s, to hit 80 in April, with a mean of April 23rd.  Would never have guessed that.  Always thought that hitting 80 before May was a fluke.  Edit:  Same for 80s in October.  Always thought that was unusual too, but apparently that was commonplace in the 70s too.  The range between them has expanded for sure tho, as shown by bluewave.

 

18 hours ago, gravitylover said:

That's what I was alluding to in a post a week or so ago. Spring seemed like it used to be warmer and drier earlier in the season, like it was more pleasant for more days than it has been for the last decade or so. I don't remember so many days affected by back door cold fronts and I (think I) remember planting the garden earlier. 

Yeah I feel that March and April both used to be warmer, that's also a product of having better weather and less rain.  That's average temps though, as for extremes, it seems that cold lows happened later and warm highs happened earlier.

 

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6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

As a strong cold front moved eastward, Binghamton picked up 2.7" snow. That broke the daily record of 1.4", which was set in 1991. It also raised that city's seasonal snowfall to 102.9", which ranks as 17th highest.

At 8 pm, readings in and around Newark and New York City were in the lower and middle 40s. Colder air continued to press into the region.

Overnight, New York City's Central Park will likely see its first April freeze since April 9, 2018. Both the MOS and NBM are in good agreement about such a freeze. In an area extending from the Gulf States to the Southeast, some near record and record low temperatures are possible tomorrow morning.

Tomorrow will be partly to mostly cloudy and unseasonably cold. The temperature will struggle to reach the lower 40s.

Moderation will occur during the weekend. Temperatures will likely return to the 60s in the northern Middle Atlantic region by Sunday or Monday.

Historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April. That warmer scenario remains the base case.
 
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around March 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses.

The SOI was -4.83 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.015 today.

On March 31 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.301 (RMM). The March 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.434 (RMM).

 

Don why is it that Atlanta will make it down to freezing and we cant get down to at least the mid 20s?

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 47degs.(40/54), or about -2.0.

31*(47%RH) here at 6am.  (was 39* at midnight)      29* at 7am.      28* at 7:30am.         Just got back to 32* at exactly 11am.        35* by 3pm.        Reached 39* near 6pm.

Still  looking dry for at least a week.       850mb T's are going to be  near normal 4/04-11, say +1C.

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