Bob's Burgers

Severe Event March 25th 2021

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Not sure that matters with respect to Mississippi. This seems like an Alabama event again. 

I think the Plateau and ETn might be in a bad spot.


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3 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Not sure that matters with respect to Mississippi. This seems like an Alabama event again. 

AL and  N GA it looks like.  Linear or blob mode over MS and NW AL.

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1 minute ago, DanLarsen34 said:

Winds are finally starting to shift more south to southeasterly at the surface now according to the mesoanalysis surface map on SPC.

Definitely a noticeable difference in the last half hour or so, and pressure falls as well. Northeast MS is still primed if something discrete forms.

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11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The directional shear didn't seem as impressive to me as some of the bigger outbreaks. But this one has some steep mid level lapse rates and strong wind velocities to maybe offset the lack of directional shear.

Outbreaks are very difficult to predict in terms of how many SUP cells or intense tors. One or two ingredients can be altered slightly which is the difference between St Patty's Day 2021 and April 2011. 

It’s still a bit early, but I agree with this, especially for the western part of the risk area, closer to the MS River. Sure, we have large CAPE and near-record lapse rates, but the wind field there is just about unidirectional now. 

I think that getting big CAPE and large hodographs in the Southeast is exceedingly rare. The writing was on the wall when midday SRH maps looked relatively modest, west of the MS/AL border.

Farther east has been a different story. CAMs remain aggressive with the zone of messy storm modes breaking into semi-discrete storms. It could still happen, but we’ll see. The air mass is recovering over central MS, but low level shear would need to improve. Of course you had that one long track supercell go largely unimpeded on the SE fringe of convection.   

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I get the HRRR, etc. is still quite aggressive for later, but if I am being entirely honest most of this convection downstream of the main threat area is quite messy...

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Just now, jojo762 said:

I get the HRRR, etc. is still quite aggressive for later, but if I am being entirely honest most of this convection downstream of the main threat area is quite messy...

Agreed. Obviously could end up wrong when all is said and done but I don't remember when we've gone from a messy convective event to a high end outbreak.

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EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL  
220 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021  
  
ALC115-121-251945-  
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0048.000000T0000Z-210325T1945Z/  
TALLADEGA AL-ST. CLAIR AL-  
220 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CDT FOR NORTH  
CENTRAL TALLADEGA AND NORTHEASTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTIES...  
          
AT 220 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR RIVERSIDE, OR  
NEAR PELL CITY, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  

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3 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

Definitely a noticeable difference in the last half hour or so, and pressure falls as well. Northeast MS is still primed if something discrete forms.

Meh I'm not totally sold here. SRH is not what it should be for this

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2 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Meh I'm not totally sold here. SRH is not what it should be for this

That's fair for sure. 

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Just now, nwohweather said:

Meh I'm not totally sold here. SRH is not what it should be for this

This seems to be the biggest issue, effective SRH and SRH in general is displaced much more east than expected so far.

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6 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

I get the HRRR, etc. is still quite aggressive for later, but if I am being entirely honest most of this convection downstream of the main threat area is quite messy...

Yeah I'm getting busty vibes further west. This is evolving more like 0z hrrr showed. The deepening low was key today and it hasn't really done that much. Hard to say if something major will evolve later or if this will be it....

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While it's still in a crappy radar spot, it still looks like there might be a TOG heading towards Ragland. 

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2 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Meh I'm not totally sold here. SRH is not what it should be for this

Surface winds are more backed up here, but low level flow is rather weak. I’m actually in NE MS “chasing” now, near the AL border. More like making a decision soon if I’m going to bail back to Oklahoma. 

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Gonna refer back to SPC issuing a high risk as a guarantee of a bust. Especially since it was Broyles who made the outlook

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It’ll be interesting to see what the SPC does in 30 minutes. I assume they keep the high for continuity purposes, but I really don’t think it’s warranted. 

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Just now, cheese007 said:

Gonna refer back to SPC issuing a high risk as a guarantee of a bust. Especially since it was Broyles who made the outlook

That seems to be the trend lately. Is there a reason for this? Have they changed their parameters for issuing one or are they just more trigger happy than they once were?

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Just now, ALweather said:

That seems to be the trend lately. Is there a reason for this? Have they changed their parameters for issuing one or are they just more trigger happy than they once were?

I also wonder how closely they use HREF probabilities as a guideline. They usually don’t deviate far from that. That popped a small tornado driven high risk at 12z. 

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