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madwx

Spring/Summer 2021 Banter/Complaint Thread

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Seasons are changing and so are our complaints.   First up some good news though, more proof that the GFSv16 is performing much better than the old GFS and has even been doing better than the Euro.

 

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It's sunny but not warm enough yet, there hasn't been nor is there the slightest hint of a severe weather threat anywhere in the nation in the near term; next week's system(s) look to be moisture-starved because somehow cold fronts are still scouring the Gulf even though we got rid of the abominable cold air over a week ago.

There's my complaint.

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On 3/5/2021 at 10:49 AM, CheeselandSkies said:

It's sunny but not warm enough yet, there hasn't been nor is there the slightest hint of a severe weather threat anywhere in the nation in the near term; next week's system(s) look to be moisture-starved because somehow cold fronts are still scouring the Gulf even though we got rid of the abominable cold air over a week ago.

There's my complaint.

Split-stream patterns scour the gulf this time of year.

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It’s smoking season boys, hot off the traeger. 
4AF1685B-BF16-4834-83C9-67203B203D88.thumb.jpeg.8bbdd20a2363bebfdef52ccd7f00676b.jpeg
Just pulled off a pork butt after a 19 hour cook. My butt and the pork's are now resting.

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Ready 2 b buried... If I can get there.

Flight scheduled Friday morning from ORD into DEN. Supposed to be staying and skiing in Winter Park and nearby for a week, my first time skiing in 6 years.

This insanity from the 06z GFS is probably overdone, but there is precedent for insane totals in slow moving upslope events. March 17-20, 2003 produced 31.8" in Denver and up to 50 to almost 90" in the foothills out to around the continental divide. Winter Park ski resort had almost 80" lol. Would be cool to experience a historic event out there.

https://atoc.colorado.edu/~cassano/weather/march2003_snow/index.htm1e93c57316ec43753a2971e155780b4b.jpg3cc7c10af3f67d57ff3f2622c094a7cb.gif

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Was talking to a few of my snowmobile buddies about this. Thinking 10 feet in spots could be on the table.

Next winter I'm going to start mountain riding. Getting tired of the hit or miss winters out this way.

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RC is starting the celebration early this year. :beer::D

Sunday (St. Patrick`s Day) also has an increasing chance to end up
dry and seasonable, especially if the bowling ball over the High
Plains continues to slow. Official forecast has some low PoPs due
to some operational and ensemble members still slightly faster.
While it`s several days out, think that trend will be toward
consensus of slower ECMWF suite, which would hold rain off until
Sunday night at the earliest, and possibly not until Monday.
Temperatures will be in the 40s on Sunday for most, though again
upper 30s lakeside. Chance PoPs on Monday appear quite reasonable
and if this ends up being the day with more widespread light to
moderate rain as it appears it could be, temperatures would
probably also end up lower than in official forecast. Pattern
looks to remain on the active side beyond day 7, with typically
low confidence in the details. The current CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day
outlooks favor temperatures to average out below normal.

Castro
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RC is starting the celebration early this year. 
Sunday (St. Patrick`s Day) also has an increasing chance to end updry and seasonable, especially if the bowling ball over the HighPlains continues to slow. Official forecast has some low PoPs dueto some operational and ensemble members still slightly faster.While it`s several days out, think that trend will be towardconsensus of slower ECMWF suite, which would hold rain off untilSunday night at the earliest, and possibly not until Monday.Temperatures will be in the 40s on Sunday for most, though againupper 30s lakeside. Chance PoPs on Monday appear quite reasonableand if this ends up being the day with more widespread light tomoderate rain as it appears it could be, temperatures wouldprobably also end up lower than in official forecast. Patternlooks to remain on the active side beyond day 7, with typicallylow confidence in the details. The current CPC 6-10 and 8-14 dayoutlooks favor temperatures to average out below normal.Castro

Definitely got my dates screwed up lol. Case of the midnights The weekend before a weekday St Pat's is traditionally St. Pat's weekend though

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On 3/8/2021 at 10:23 AM, RCNYILWX said:

Ready 2 b buried... If I can get there.

Flight scheduled Friday morning from ORD into DEN. Supposed to be staying and skiing in Winter Park and nearby for a week, my first time skiing in 6 years.

This insanity from the 06z GFS is probably overdone, but there is precedent for insane totals in slow moving upslope events. March 17-20, 2003 produced 31.8" in Denver and up to 50 to almost 90" in the foothills out to around the continental divide. Winter Park ski resort had almost 80" lol. Would be cool to experience a historic event out there.

https://atoc.colorado.edu/~cassano/weather/march2003_snow/index.htm1e93c57316ec43753a2971e155780b4b.jpg3cc7c10af3f67d57ff3f2622c094a7cb.gif

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They need all the moisture they can get now if another hot dry summer is on the way.  Sadly the beetles have already done so much damage.  So much dead fire fuel.  Elevated dead logs dry out like crazy in the heat no matter how much snow there was in the spring.

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So is the NWS just going to stick with the unusable garbage radar they've switched to?  Why can't they just go back to the perfectly-adequate old radar, but simply switch from Flash to something else?

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Guys, I saw a quasi-dust devil today while on a run. I was deep in this forest preserve, with a friend, when we noticed leaves whipping around us. We turned to our right and there was a legitimate cone of dust maybe half a foot wide and a foot tall zipping around the prairie next to us, a mere 20' away. No clouds overhead, and the whole area was still smoldering for a controlled burn, maybe the heat caused it. It was really cool but short lived, it cross the path and died out in less than a minute. 

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"I'm really excited about the cold, blustery, overrunning heavy rain on Wednesday night/Thursday" he emotes with sarcastic disdain.

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4 hours ago, IWXwx said:

"I'm really excited about the cold, blustery, overrunning heavy rain on Wednesday night/Thursday" he emotes with sarcastic disdain.

Good news, the NAM changes it to snow.

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My complaint is that it is boring as **** right now. No precip other than the trace last night for 15 days.

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1 hour ago, Stebo said:

My complaint is that it is boring as **** right now. No precip other than the trace last night for 15 days.

I like that because it should allow for a better chance of a warmer spring. The ground is drying out fast, a few brush fires around here already.

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1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

April will be rockin :D

At some point we need moisture else April will be mixing out shallow moisture for busts.

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6 hours ago, Stebo said:

My complaint is that it is boring as **** right now. No precip other than the trace last night for 15 days.

Yea.  What really stinks is getting cloudy skies and brisk easterly winds with temps in the mid-upper 30s... yet zero beneficial precip.  If it's going to be boring I prefer sunny skies at least.  Though we did have a pretty sunny stretch earlier in the month.  It's just annoying being stuck on the northern fringe of the southern stream track... and then not even getting any precip.  Chilly easterly winds and clouds are so depressing this time of year.

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Not in our subforum, but it could get very interesting in the South and especially Mississippi later today. I will be virtual chasing.

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On 3/16/2021 at 7:23 PM, Stebo said:

My complaint is that it is boring as **** right now. No precip other than the trace last night for 15 days.

One month ago it looked like this, and now everyone's worried about drought. Crazy how quickly things change.

Resized_20210216_100934.jpeg

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The models are kinda all over the place with the next wave train after this dry stretch.  The first low is occluding way northwest, but the southern stream stuff after that is just unpredictable.  Waiting for the GFS to give me a snowstorm.  lol.

Does anyone think the warmup in the long range is real?  Early April torch signals have been persistent despite the last week of March having a lot of spread.

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