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March 2021 General Discussion


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On 3/21/2021 at 8:18 PM, michsnowfreak said:

Diurnal swings last 2 days

Detroit:

Mar 20 high/low 54/22

Mar 21 high/low 63/27

 

Better radiating spot...Ann Arbor

Mar 20 high/low 56/15

Mar 21 high/low 65/19

What the hell...add one more day.

Diurnal swings last 3 days

Detroit:

Mar 20 high/low 54/22

Mar 21 high/low 63/27

Mar 22 high/low 71/34

 

Ann Arbor

Mar 20 high/low 56/15

Mar 21 high/low 65/19

Mar 22 high/low 70/25

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My temp is skyrocketing the last 90 minutes from 12C-18C (65F) :). I'm now expected to reach the almighty 20C mark this afternoon first of the year and if confirmed first since 2012 for March. Filtered sunlight but getting brighter the last few mins. Every day my high is bumped another 1-2C as originally today was 15C.

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21 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

What the hell...add one more day.

Diurnal swings last 3 days

Detroit:

Mar 20 high/low 54/22

Mar 21 high/low 63/27

Mar 22 high/low 71/34

 

Ann Arbor

Mar 20 high/low 56/15

Mar 21 high/low 65/19

Mar 22 high/low 70/25

Ann Arbor is the aberration here, it is in a bowl and radiates more than anywhere else.

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6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 I know, But still the numbers just look insane. I have said for years that Ann arbor radiates unrealistically. Just as Ypsilanti is the aberration for high temps.

Interestingly, these two cities border one another.

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I picked up 0.36" of rain this morning from the light to moderate band and then another 0.39" this evening from the moderate to heavy band, so my total is 0.75".  It's nice to see and hear it pour rain again.  There was no lightning, so my first lightning/thunder will likely have to wait til mid April.

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Quote
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
351 AM EDT Wed Mar 24 2021

INZ030-031-037>042-046>049-054>057-241600-
/O.NEW.KIND.HW.A.0001.210326T0300Z-210326T1200Z/
Clinton-Howard-Boone-Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-Rush-
Including the cities of Frankfort, Kokomo, Lebanon, Zionsville, 
Tipton, Fishers, Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, 
Winchester, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville, Indianapolis, 
Greenfield, Cumberland, New Castle, Martinsville, Mooresville, 
Greenwood, Franklin, Shelbyville, and Rushville
351 AM EDT Wed Mar 24 2021

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central and east central Indiana.

* WHEN...From Thursday evening through Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this
situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe
location prior to the onset of winds.

 

gusts.gif

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On 3/17/2021 at 11:56 AM, Powerball said:

I know it's a different region, but in addition to the already rare high risk area for today, the SPC has issued a 45% tornado risk area for W. Central AL

Apparently, the SPC has only issued this 5 other times in its history.

And it increasingly appears another high risk area may be issued by the SPC for parts of the same areas tomorrow that were hit last week.

It's not often you see 2 high risk days in a season, let alone virtually back-to-back in the same areas.

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On 3/21/2021 at 10:19 AM, michsnowfreak said:

The clear skies and dry atmosphere are really causing impressive diurnal swings in temps quite unusual for this region without aid of a strong front. forecast today 65.

Even at the heat island.....

Detroit:

Mar 20 high/low 54/22

Mar 21 high/low ??/27

 

Better radiating spot...Ann Arbor

Mar 20 high/low 56/15

Mar 21 high/low ??/19

How's the green up progressing there (if at all)?

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55 minutes ago, Powerball said:

And it increasingly appears another high risk area may be issued by the SPC for parts of the same areas tomorrow that were hit last week.

It's not often you see 2 high risk days in a season, let alone virtually back-to-back in the same areas.

Was fairly common before 2015 or so. May 4-10, 2003 had four, so did May 22-30, 2004 and three between May 22 and June 5, 2008. In fact, 4-6 per year was the general expectation from the 1990s through the early 2010s (2010 had six including one in October, 2011 had five including back-to-back on April 26-27); except in real dud years like 2000 and 2009. Then dud years started becoming the rule rather than the exception.

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Just under an inch of rain here since yesterday. Pretty steady light rain with the occasional mod/hvy band working in. Winds running 15-30 mph, so nothing unusual. It has been snowing some today, inland across the Arrowhead region, but no reports as of yet. Haven't seen any flakes in town, but radar showing heavier snow out over the lake now as the colder air moves in.

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2 hours ago, ILSNOW said:

Euro gets it down to 982

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

Euro has quite an impressive wind event.  But it is deeper with the surface low and thus has stronger wind fields than other models, so not sure we will see something of the magnitude that the Euro is suggesting (which would be widespread 60-70 mph gust potential).

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If you want a laugh, pull up the Euro gust maps.  There are pockets of 70-80 mph on there.  But the gust products are to be used with caution given what I mentioned above, in addition to them tending to be overdone in shallower/more questionable mixing regimes.

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