40/70 Benchmark Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I just saw the NAM... It's a needle threader incarnate! caution on being optimistic or readily favoring that scenario because the NAM when it comes into the 60 to 84 hour ranges has a tendency to be NW ... owing to a tendency to be slightly too amplified - it's almost like what the global numerical ( Euro/GFS/GGEM) do at D7-10 , where they first scope these system in their distance frames like the moon coming over the eastern horizon - magnified and scary huge... lol. The NAM seems to do something similar then damps a bit coming into 48 < -- so forth. That is a narrow latitude there to begin with, so a 50 mile S correction of axis' and that rt 2 ends up down in CT... etc.. Yea, it will be the same crap we have seen all season.....congrats, Will. I just want a 1/2" here, and a couple in Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 Course, the ICON ...lol, it either has NW bias, or is going to coup this to a warm scenario that ends as fake blue QPF that isn't verifying below 900 mb at all with that look. Actually has PF to Phinn' snowing ... It tries to flash to snow south but that is definitely fake in that set up.. I wonder if that's icing even for SW NH. Mm... haven't been personally impressed with this ICON model though so don't really use it much. Not sure how it does in this sort of look/set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 39 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Mt Snow for Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Fozz said: Mt Snow for Friday? Berkshire East 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 A foot in Boston, nothing here? Sell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: A foot in Boston, nothing here? Sell Yea, your area will get nailed, and I'll get scraps as a segue into another summer of Scooter telling me how much I am due to regress. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 I bet the ICON is too far NW... It's sort of bass-ackward way of looking at it, but it hasn't liked the Sunday balm either ...or the scale and degree of warm up at a continental scope for Sunday through next week all along. I noticed/suspected earlier in the season that it's BL handling on whole was questionable. It seems not do feedbacks .. introducing a host of secondary errors if those d(BLs) are not necessarily created and propagating along. Especially in spring that would be a problem with sun modulation of lower troposphere ... Which that Sunday onward is going to be a lesson in watching the models be like, '...oh, okay ..we have all these new therms to deal with now ...better expand...' ...It's not just MOS that tends to be too cool - synoptic warm ups tend to mature right up until go time from March onward - Anyway, I bet the ICON is not seeing the BL resistance with that high pressing S... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 RGEM is an impressive flash freeze widespread advisory snowfall event. Temps in the 20s during Friday as the snow lingers. Seems to get a lot of the forum eventually. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: RGEM is an impressive flash freeze widespread advisory snowfall event. Temps in the 20s during Friday as the snow lingers. Seems to get a lot of the forum eventually. Yea thats impressive. Soaka too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Yea thats impressive. Soaka too That would help Stein sleep at night, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That would help Stein sleep at night, Yea no one asked me but, I could not care any less - at a personal level - whether it snows a speck of dandruff at this point. The rain on the other hand? It won't shut up the stein heads that can't find any other doomscrolling to focus on so will blow the drought horn instead... no, but any rain at all helps stuff that much more sock in their pie-holes. At a personal level, I guess knowing with > 50% ... even > 70 ( I'd say ..) confidence that we are going substantively above normal Sunday until further notice ( hopefully until next November 15 in the latter sense), makes tolerating any cold spring regression event between now and then that much easier. But if it rains ...we need it. If snows, that's just Farmer's Gold - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That would help Stein sleep at night, Can we just graduate drought in New England to the top of the fraud five and be done with this nonsense? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 Wow, GFS is pretty impressive for Friday morning too. Further SE than the NAM, but it hits most of MA hard....Scooter jack? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Can we just graduate drought in New England to the top of the fraud five and be done with this nonsense? ...tell that to the people that had wells go dry last summer and fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 Gfs flashes to pretty heavy snow in eastern ma Friday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Can we just graduate drought in New England to the top of the fraud five and be done with this nonsense? Especially with Hartford reservoir at 98% capacity meaning there is enough water if it doesn't rain for the next 2 years 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 Just now, Great Snow 1717 said: ...tell that to the people that had wells go dry last summer and fall. 25 foot wells go dry often. Talk to me when deep wells and reservoirs dry up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yea no one asked me but, I could not care any less - at a personal level - whether it snows a speck of dandruff at this point. The rain on the other hand? It won't shut up the stein heads that can't find any other doomscrolling to focus on so will blow the drought horn instead... no, but any rain at all helps stuff that much more sock in their pie-holes. lol love that "the drought horn"... seems to be an annual event for some to be extremely concerned about next to nothing when it doesn't rain 1" QPF every 4 days all warm season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 22 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: ...tell that to the people that had wells go dry last summer and fall. Which people? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 My SIL is flying to MIA at 8:30am Friday. I texted her the NAM output. She wasn’t happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 29 minutes ago, powderfreak said: lol love that "the drought horn"... seems to be an annual event for some to be extremely concerned about next to nothing when it doesn't rain 1" QPF every 4 days all warm season. Lol, ...it's frolicking trollism there a little..sure, but oh my god with this - I mean, as far as wells running dry - uh, no. There are a ton of circumstantially mitigating factors. The geology where the well was dug, and the permeability of rock strata/ .. making accessing of aquifer supplies 'slow rate' or... low rate in general, because the surveyors either screwed up, or warned of a low yield return in that particular region, or both...and the builders went ahead with plans anyway. There's all that, and the amount of rain and whether the USGS D. survey has us in a regional folic color of desicating doom or not ... isn't really automatically meaningful and point to point circumstance. Plus, aquifer water is a longer term strata source ...deep and usually relates to decades, as well as abuses of use, combined. It's complex 'why' well runs dry... We hear of this happening to people even in comparatively wetter antecedent years, anyway. It's really just that - the lust and entertainment cycle of of a doomscrolling for entertainment culture that's come about from having accesses to 'too much information' that is by and large, interestingly ... nosed into by people sitting in the comfortability of their homes with provisions as they need while they warn. You know... kind a like the raging holier-than-thou Environmentalist blogger pounding away on his/her keyboard, impugning everything humanity does and stands for ... utilizing a total media-neurology that is essentially entirely made possible by exploiting the environment in order to bloviate. Heh...I guess in order to reach people we gotta be a hypocrite - I suppose it's a necessary evil in that sense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 Yeah...that GFS run is DEFINITELY a heftier signal than an ANA profile... lol.. I don't know, the 00z Euro is inside of 4 days - despite any populous derision of it's skill it is still the best model out there in that range. I'd like to see the 12z because the 00z run was nuisance by comparison to the GFS for frozen. Actually, if it comes in as robust as the GFS ...it would be unusual for it to correct like that as it is ... Let's see what it does - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Warmth Yep that’s what I’m seeing too on the models for the end of the month. Well above average temps with an 80 degree day not out of the question. After this next storm threat Friday we are likely done with snow threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 Nice door next Friday on the gfs too. Borderline SWFE frozen precip up here into ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah...that GFS run is DEFINITELY a heftier signal than an ANA profile... lol.. I don't know, the 00z Euro is inside of 4 days - despite any populous derision of it's skill it is still the best model out there in that range. I'd like to see the 12z because the 00z run was nuisance by comparison to the GFS for frozen. Actually, if it comes in as robust as the GFS ...it would be unusual for it to correct like that as it is ... Let's see what it does - That is like 8-10" of paste n and west of town.....yikes. Sell for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 59 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Wow, GFS is pretty impressive for Friday morning too. Further SE than the NAM, but it hits most of MA hard....Scooter jack? More like a Holliston to ORH jack 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 Off tobic, but...anybody catch that warm-core system near Bermuda end of next week? Way too early to talk TCs but still... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 14 minutes ago, dendrite said: Nice door next Friday on the gfs too. Borderline SWFE frozen precip up here into ME. I honestly - and I'm not merely saying this because of personal druthers to sans winter at this time of year, either - don't trust anything that particular model does with it's stalking obsessive behavior with the N/stream and bias low heights anywhere on the N side of jet streams. It's coherently biased in that aspect - particularly egregious in spring... That model has done this, as far as I can tell, every spring season since it became 'G' 'F' and 'S' , where by the time it is out to the mid range+ it has slipped the thermal input that the season forces into the initialization and collapses back to January at least excuse imagined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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