Allsnow Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 1 hour ago, JerseyWx said: I think 17-18 was better tbh. This year was really saved by 3 weeks in February. No snow in March is disappointing too. I personally hate March snow so us getting skunked isn’t a big let down to me. I rather get all our snow in DJF to maximize snow cover etc. 17-18 I can’t rank higher because of a few reasons.... 1. The cold pattern from December into January that year was mainly dry. The costal storm in early January mainly effected the jersey shore and LI. 2. February was a torch! Winter shut off after that early January storm until March. 3. Horrible winter for snow pack 4. The March climo hurt in different ways for all of those costal storms. The best event here was the last storm of that Month and it melted in two days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 KPHL with record rainfall today 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 It was nice to see things trend wetter as we moved closer. Picked up 1.30" of rain so far today. Current temp 49 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Pouring rain here, approaching 1 inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 0.42” here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Picked up 1.31" of rain for the day. Current temp 52 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Gfs has temps in the 70s for NYC with near 80 for SNJ on Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 20 hours ago, Cfa said: That’d honestly be amazing. I've always wanted to experience the air conditioned beaches of Dubai lol. I'm sure we could heat up the part of the ocean that's close to our beaches, that's pretty shallow water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 4 hours ago, MJO812 said: Gfs has temps in the 70s for NYC with near 80 for SNJ on Friday. 80 up to Toms River and windy too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 8 hours ago, Allsnow said: I personally hate March snow so us getting skunked isn’t a big let down to me. I rather get all our snow in DJF to maximize snow cover etc. 17-18 I can’t rank higher because of a few reasons.... 1. The cold pattern from December into January that year was mainly dry. The costal storm in early January mainly effected the jersey shore and LI. 2. February was a torch! Winter shut off after that early January storm until March. 3. Horrible winter for snow pack 4. The March climo hurt in different ways for all of those costal storms. The best event here was the last storm of that Month and it melted in two days March snowfall aint all that great. I actually like April snow better. 2002-03 was one of my favorite winters because we had snow in December, February and April. It's important to have either a very good January or a very good February to make the winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 8 hours ago, Allsnow said: I personally hate March snow so us getting skunked isn’t a big let down to me. I rather get all our snow in DJF to maximize snow cover etc. 17-18 I can’t rank higher because of a few reasons.... 1. The cold pattern from December into January that year was mainly dry. The costal storm in early January mainly effected the jersey shore and LI. 2. February was a torch! Winter shut off after that early January storm until March. 3. Horrible winter for snow pack 4. The March climo hurt in different ways for all of those costal storms. The best event here was the last storm of that Month and it melted in two days I liked the April 2018 storm better than any of those March ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 8 hours ago, bluewave said: Our coming period of very windy cutters will produce another wave break in early April. It will be interesting to see how long that period of blocking lasts. These wave breaks that pop up in the 6-10 range make the day 11-15 forecasts very uncertain. New run Old run chances for early April snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 9 hours ago, uncle W said: I liked the storms when I was younger better...40" snow seasons are the new norm...from 1969-70 to 1992-93 there was only one winter with 40" or more and that year was 1977-78...we have exceeded. that winter six times since 1995...my favorite snowstorm as a kid is a toss up of March 1960 and Dec 1960...as a middle aged man Jan 1996 is a favorite and maybe alltime favorite depending on what side of the bed I woke up that day...recent favorite storm is the Dec 2010... January 2016! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Interesting discussion from Mt. Holly for both Friday and Sunday. Model soundings suggest winds will be increasing in this regime, readily gusting to 35+ mph by afternoon. As winds begin to veer, diurnal mixing peaks, and a reinforcing cold front approaches the area, speeds will likely exceed advisory criteria in much of the area. Winds at 850 mb will be approaching 50 kt, and mixing has the potential to reach or even exceed this level. Seems likely we will need a wind advisory for Friday afternoon and evening, and if mixing ends up being more efficient than currently advertised, a rogue severe-caliber gust may occur. Held off on issuing wind headlines early this morning given ongoing/near-term weather, but expect wind products to be issued for the afternoon package. Winds should decrease fairly rapidly Friday night as the migratory surface low takes the strong pressure gradient with it to our northeast. Strong cold advection will be occurring in the post-frontal regime, but winds will not entirely decouple. Thus, kept Friday night lows fairly warm, generally in the 40s to around 50. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A fairly strong system will affect the region on Sunday, though the surface cyclone should lift well north of the region. Nevertheless, upper dynamics look fairly impressive as an initially positively-tilted trough begins to pivot to a more neutral tilt as it approaches the East Coast during the day. A 100+ kt speed max at 500 mb will nose into the Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon, collocated with a surging cold front to the south of the aforementioned surface low. As warm advection races north in the developing warm sector, convection should readily develop along the attendant warm/cold fronts. Widespread precipitation should occur in New England and the Mid-Atlantic in this setup, with areal QPF likely exceeding a half inch across the CWA (locally much higher amounts possible). Will need to watch this system closely, as both severe and hydro issues may be present depending on the usual timing/track issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Morning thoughts... The storm responsible for yesterday’s significant rainfall has now moved away from the region. Yesterday’s precipitation totals included: New York City: 1.27” (highest figure since 1.85”, February 1, 2021); Newark: 1.35” (highest figure since 1.44”, February 1, 2021); and, Philadelphia 1.56” (highest figure since 1.59”, October 29, 2020 and new daily record for March 24). Some of the warmest weather so far this year is now likely. The unseasonable warmth will climax tomorrow. Today will be partly cloudy and noticeably warmer than yesterday. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 68° Newark: 70° Philadelphia: 71° Some daily record high temperatures are possible across upstate New York, parts of northern New England, and Quebec. That region could also see some locally strong thunderstorms. Tomorrow will be windy and very warm. Temperatures could challenge or break daily record highs in parts of the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. There could also be some showers and thundershowers. Daily records for March 16 include: Allentown: 74°, 1963 Bridgeport: 70°, 1954 Islip: 65°, 1976 New York City-JFK: 67°, 1954 New York City-LGA: 72°, 1943 New York City-NYC: 76°, 1922 Newark: 73°, 1943 and 1986 Philadelphia: 80°, 1921 Poughkeepsie: 75°, 1949 and 1963 A cooler weekend will follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 The last 7 days of March are averaging 54degs.(46/63), about +7.0. Month to date is 42.6[+1.2]. March should end at 45.2[+2.7]. The first week of April looks cold at 42degs.(35/49), or about -6.0. This represents a failure to communicate with EURO Weeklies, the 8-14 and the GEFS. 51*(98%RH) here at 6am, FOG <0.2. 53* FOG now <0.5 at 8am. 54* at 9am and back to FOG <0.2. 56* at 11am and FOG as dense as ever. Fog lifted Noon to 12:30pm, at 58*/59*. 62* by 1pm. 63* at 1:30pm. As predicted, T down to 58* by 2:30pm and some fog back in. HRRR says coast gets to 60* by 2pm, then may fall back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 57 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Morning thoughts... The storm responsible for yesterday’s significant rainfall has now moved away from the region. Yesterday’s precipitation totals included: New York City: 1.27” (highest figure since 1.85”, February 1, 2021); Newark: 1.35” (highest figure since 1.44”, February 1, 2021); and, Philadelphia 1.56” (highest figure since 1.59”, October 29, 2020 and new daily record for March 24). Some of the warmest weather so far this year is now likely. The unseasonable warmth will climax tomorrow. Today will be partly cloudy and noticeably warmer than yesterday. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 68° Newark: 70° Philadelphia: 71° Some daily record high temperatures are possible across upstate New York, parts of northern New England, and Quebec. That region could also see some locally strong thunderstorms. Tomorrow will be windy and very warm. Temperatures could challenge or break daily record highs in parts of the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. There could also be some showers and thundershowers. Daily records for March 16 include: Allentown: 74°, 1963 Bridgeport: 70°, 1954 Islip: 65°, 1976 New York City-JFK: 67°, 1954 New York City-LGA: 72°, 1943 New York City-NYC: 76°, 1922 Newark: 73°, 1943 and 1986 Philadelphia: 80°, 1921 Poughkeepsie: 75°, 1949 and 1963 A cooler weekend will follow. Didnt get much here near JFK, maybe half an inch of rain? JFK should easily break Friday's record, dont you think, Don? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 13 hours ago, bluewave said: These winter ratings are really subjective and can vary quite a bit from location to location. Northern NJ back to NE PA had a great snowfall outcome. Long Island snowfall was good but not great by recent standards. All the epic snowstorms since 03 have really raised the bar on what is considered a good or great winter. As for the 79-92 period, I enjoyed 81-82 and 82-83 more than this winter. Getting close to the jackpot of an historic storm is more important to me like February 83 and April 82. My 3 favorite snowfall seasons since 09-10 were 10-11, 15-16, and 17-18. I mean it depends, western LI was pretty good, a solid B winter. Suffolk County sticks out too far into the Ocean and we're returning to the old storm track now. You left out 13-14 and 14-15 lol. 14-15 was particularly amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 22 hours ago, MJO812 said: If it wasn't for the snow event in December and the big snowstorm in early February , this winter would have been terrible. No snow at all in January and March. sounds a lot like 2009-10 huh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: chances for early April snow? Areas that are near 80° on Friday could be in the 20s with the strong blocking to start April. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Just now, bluewave said: Areas that are near 80° on Friday could be in the 20s with the strong blocking to start April. Huge turnaround. Even if we get an inch or two of snow that would be quite an achievement. Anthony may get his 40" yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: All the cold comes in behind one of the cutters leading to the wave break and blocking. We would probably need a stray lake effect streamer or weak upper disturbance. So maybe one last T or perhaps .01 for somebody? Hard to tell this far out in time. But this will continue the ridiculous AO swings pattern. Remember April 2006, Chris? Is that what happened? NYC got its 0.1 to get to 40.0 and JFK had 1-2 inches of snow, that was quite heavy early in the morning of that day. The other one I distinctly remember was in early April 1990 after it had already gotten into the mid 80s in the middle of March. Were both of these that type of event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Remember April 2006, Chris? Is that what happened? NYC got its 0.1 to get to 40.0 and JFK had 1-2 inches of snow, that was quite heavy early in the morning of that day. The other one I distinctly remember was in early April 1990 after it had already gotten into the mid 80s in the middle of March. Were both of these that type of event? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Didnt get much here near JFK, maybe half an inch of rain? JFK should easily break Friday's record, dont you think, Don? 0.69” rain yesterday at JFK. It should break the record tomorrow. The temperature will probably surpass 70 there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Didnt get much here near JFK, maybe half an inch of rain? JFK should easily break Friday's record, dont you think, Don? Just go to the 3 day weather history on the noaa point and click and it gives you all the rain totals for each site. Looks like most of the heavy rain stayed to our west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 April 2 - April 5 looks like the peak of the chill, then moderation beyond there. Could be backdoor/onshore city for a period though so the warmup may not be that warm during the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html check out this wording. An intense outbreak probably set to occur today across the south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 ^^Eek. .47 for the event here. Between that and this mornings fog things are wet but thankfully not soggy like last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: April 2 - April 5 looks like the peak of the chill, then moderation beyond there. Could be backdoor/onshore city for a period though so the warmup may not be that warm during the day. The only thing that could ruin a warm, sunny spring day is an easterly fetch off those cold Atlantic waters. We've seen a lot of that lately and we'll have too see if the -NAO is transient it longer lasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 1.20 yesterday. Looks like when I get back from Florida on Easter weekend it might be quite chilly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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