March 2021

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, doncat said:

Yeah 1998 saw local stations surpassing 80° for 5 straight days to end March.

I thought the heat in March 1990 was superior and more memorable though, we approached 90 in mid March!

 

[CIK62]

The last 5 days of March are averaging 54degs.(46/62), or +7.0.

Month to date is  44.1[+2.5].         March should end  near  45.7[+3.2].

GFS still with some snow on April 01.      A -15C 850mb T is likely near this time.      After the 4th.,  model spread too great to be useful.

51*(61%RH) here at 6am.  (was 57* at midnight)    50* at 7am.     52* by 9am.      56* by 11am.     Down to 54* at 11:30am.       55* by Noon.      57* by 1pm.   58* by 2pm, but down to 56* at 2:30pm.      53* at 5pm.

[bluewave]

This was a top 3 or 4 warmest March temperature for all our stations.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Mar
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	1945	89	0
2	1998	86	0
-	1990	86	0
3	2021	84	5

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Mar
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	1998	86	0
-	1945	86	0
2	1990	85	0
3	1921	84	0
4	2021	82	5

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Mar
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	1945	86	0
2	1998	83	0
-	1990	83	0
3	2021	82	5

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Mar
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	1990	85	0
2	1998	82	0
3	2021	81	5

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Mar
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	1990	82	0
2	1998	81	0
3	1991	79	0
4	2021	78	5

 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of Mar
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	1990	84	0
2	1998	80	0
3	2021	79	5

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Mar
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	1998	82	1
-	1990	82	1
2	2021	80	5

 

[SnoSki14]

We'll likely see 20s later this week so another rollercoaster temperature ride.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

In the wake of yesterday’s record-breaking warmth, today will be partly sunny and continued warm. However, it will be quite a bit cooler than yesterday. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 66°

Newark: 67°

Philadelphia: 69°

Clouds and rain will return for Sunday. A strong cold shot is likely at the start of April.

[donsutherland1]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

wow when was the last time that all three New York City locations hit 80 in March?

 

The last time that happened was March 29, 1998. JFK: 82°; LGA: 81°; and, NYC: 81°

[Rtd208]

High for the day yesterday was 83 here.

It looks like a nice day shaping up today.

Current temp 58

[Rjay]

Mid 60s.  Feels great outside. 

[Rtd208]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

 

[Rtd208]

Current temp is 70 here.

[donsutherland1]

Under partly to mostly sunny conditions, the temperature rose to 69° in Central Park. At the New York Botanical Garden, even more flowers have burst into bloom over the past week.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow mostly cloudy with some showers and possibly thundershowers. It will remain mild for the season. The remainder of March will continue to see generally warmer than normal readings.

As March concludes and April commences, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is forecast to plunge more than 3 sigma from its current value. As recently as 2018, the AO fell from +1.743 to -2.188 during the March 26-April 3 period. There was a strong cold shot and even a snowstorm. A cold shot is more likely than a snowstorm this time around.

Overall, April could start out on the cold side. Historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April.
 
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses.

The SOI was +9.62 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.927 today.

On March 25 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.068 (RMM). The March 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.391 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.4° (2.9° above normal).

 

[forkyfork]

if tomorrow's setup happened slightly later in the season we'd get crushed

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow mostly cloudy with some showers and possibly thundershowers. It will remain mild for the season. The remainder of March will continue to see generally warmer than normal readings.

As March concludes and April commences, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is forecast to plunge more than 3 sigma from its current value. As recently as 2018, the AO fell from +1.743 to -2.188 during the March 26-April 3 period. There was a strong cold shot and even a snowstorm. A cold shot is more likely than a snowstorm this time around.

Overall, April could start out on the cold side. Historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April.
 
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses.

The SOI was +9.62 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.927 today.

On March 25 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.068 (RMM). The March 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.391 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.4° (2.9° above normal).

 

2018 had so many late season storms, April's was the capper.

What's stopping it from happening this time around?

 

[Rtd208]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

 

[CIK62]

The last 4 days of March are averaging 54degs.(46/63).

Month to date is  44.7[+2.9].     March should end at  45.9[+3.4].

First 10 days of April are averaging 48degs.(40/57), or about -1.0.      This has been  going downward.

EURO has a Trace of Snow----but now it is on the 4th.       Models have been useless with this aspect of forecasting.

50*(90%RH) here at 6am.      52* at 7am.       Been up and down in the low 50's for hours, now at 1pm   51* and FOG <0.2mi.           Was near 57* for most of evening.

[the_other_guy]

46F

Everyone loves the beautiful weather

 

However, let’s not mask the fact that this is yet another relentless +10 period.

 

It is way too early for this, with no extended normal weather in sight. 
 

Very alarming...again

 

 

 

 

[SnoSki14]

7 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

46F

Everyone loves the beautiful weather

 

However, let’s not mask the fact that this is yet another relentless +10 period.

 

It is way too early for this, with no extended normal weather in sight. 
 

Very alarming...again

 

 

 

 

Well there's a strong cold shot to start April and we've seen much warmer Marches before so things have been much worse. 

Still it's alarming that it doesn't take much to score another record high. Even a benign ridge could get it done nowadays.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

A storm will pass to the west of the region. Periods of rain, including some thunderstorms, are likely. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 64°

Newark: 66°

Philadelphia: 71°

Tomorrow will be fair and cooler. A strong cold shot is likely at the start of April.

[donsutherland1]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

2018 had so many late season storms, April's was the capper.

What's stopping it from happening this time around?

 

The position of the block (east-based) will be a key difference. Snow in upstate New York, central and southern New England is far more likely with such a setup.

[bluewave]

The lower dewpoints for a good portion of the month finally allowed the maximum  temperature departures to exceed the minimums. High temperatures were able to beat expectations. The drier conditions at night allowed the lows to get closer to normal.

NYC...max...+4.1....min...+1.6

HPN...max...+3.9....min..+2.0

LGA....max...+3.2....min...+2.3

EWR....max..+4.1....min...+1.8

JFK.....max...+3.6....min...+0.5

ISP......max...+4.4.....min...+1.4

BDR....max....+3.5.....min...+1.3

[psv88]

Heavy rain and thunder 

[Rtd208]

Interesting Mt. Holly discussion for the mid/late week system.

An impactful system is expected to move through the region on 
  Wednesday and Thursday, with much colder and breezy conditions 
  expected to close the week. 
   
  Deterministic model solutions have noticeably converged 
  regarding the Wednesday/Thursday system evolution. However, 
  critical differences remain, particularly with the track of the 
  developing wave of low pressure along the advancing front in the 
  southeastern U.S. Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The 00z ECMWF 
  and CMC remain noticeably slower with the advancing trough and 
  continue to be preferred owing to the developing high-amplitude 
  ridging downstream. The 00z GFS has trended closer to the tracks 
  of the ECMWF/CMC with tonight`s output, increasing confidence 
  somewhat. Nevertheless, the GFS continues to be more  
  progressive and drier with the precipitation from the system  
  during this period, an important caveat to the discussion below. 
   
  As the low approaches the CWA Wednesday afternoon and evening, 
  considerable large-scale lift will be in place via right- 
  entrance region upper divergence from a favorably positioned 
  250-mb jet streak, strong differential cyclonic vorticity  
  advection downstream of the advancing, more neutrally-tilted  
  trough, and substantial warm/moist advection on the northern  
  periphery of a poleward-advancing warm sector. Models indicate  
  widespread precipitation developing in this regime, convectively 
  enhanced near the approaching front and in vicinity of the  
  intensifying surface low. Model soundings do indicate some  
  instability in the pre-frontal warm sector, especially if the  
  surface low tracks farther west. Have added thunder to the  
  forecast for much of the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. 
  Heavy rainfall is quite possible with this setup, especially  
  since upper-level flow will become oriented mostly parallel to  
  the approaching front (thanks in large part to the high-  
  amplitude ridging downstream). QPF of 1-2+ inches is depicted  
  with the CMC/ECMWF (50+ percent less in the GFS/ICON). Given the 
  potential convective enhancement of the precipitation and a  
  couple of antecedent soaking rain events, this seems like a  
  setup that favors some flooding potential. Will monitor this  
  closely as the event approaches. 
   
  In addition, very strong cold advection will occur on the 
  upstream side of the cold front, with temperatures dropping 
  10-20 degrees in a matter of a few hours after frontal passage. 
  The cold conveyor belt of the intensifying surface low, along  
  with favorable frontogenetical forcing/deformation, may produce  
  a band of precipitation on the west/northwest side of the low  
  that lingers for several hours. Thermal profiles would favor a  
  switchover to snow for the southern Poconos and far northwest  
  New Jersey, perhaps resulting in some accumulations Thursday  
  morning. (Much heavier snow may occur to our north/northwest,  
  notably.) Will be monitoring this potential as well in the  
  coming days. 

[gravitylover]

Heavy enough rain that some of the gutters are overflowing. Nice day...

That storm for midweek sounds an awful lot like the April Fools storm in 97. Warm the day before, trees were leafing out quickly, some rain and rind then snow overnight as the storm moves through. Hopefully it's not 17" like that was because the trees are leafing out again. 

[SACRUS]

5 hours ago, CIK62 said:

 

First 10 days of April are averaging 48degs.(40/57), or about -1.0.      This has been  going downward.

 

It looks like any moderation by Easter (4/4) is short lived and cut off / ULL backs down into New England, it wont be nearly as cold as 4/1 - 4/2 but onshore flow looks likely NE o ENE persistent flow in the 4/5 - 4/8 period keeping daytime highs cool to chilly..  Would have been an otherwise warmer pattern with a deep trouh into the WC and strong ridge into the GL but the ULL is forced down under the ridge.  Thats' why some models had the stronger warmup once passed the 4/3 but its looking more like ULL disturbs the warmup through the 8th or so. Id be surprised if the warmer scenario comes to fruition.  I think April is back end warm to hot.

[rclab]

25 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

lazy day today

Friday was very nice and i made a new friend.  iPhone 12 camera--bretty good 

Good morning, Will. Many of the species in our area are harmless and beneficial. It’s a shame that their institutional bad reputation is promoted more often by myth than by fact. As always ....

[crossbowftw3]

34 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Heavy enough rain that some of the gutters are overflowing. Nice day...

That storm for midweek sounds an awful lot like the April Fools storm in 97. Warm the day before, trees were leafing out quickly, some rain and rind then snow overnight as the storm moves through. Hopefully it's not 17" like that was because the trees are leafing out again. 

Probably won’t come even close but certainly can count on some snow inland 

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.27" of rain so far today.

Current temp 54

[psv88]

59 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

It looks like any moderation by Easter (4/4) is short lived and cut off / ULL backs down into New England, it wont be nearly as cold as 4/1 - 4/2 but onshore flow looks likely NE o ENE persistent flow in the 4/5 - 4/8 period keeping daytime highs cool to chilly..  Would have been an otherwise warmer pattern with a deep trouh into the WC and strong ridge into the GL but the ULL is forced down under the ridge.  Thats' why some models had the stronger warmup once passed the 4/3 but its looking more like ULL disturbs the warmup through the 8th or so. Id be surprised if the warmer scenario comes to fruition.  I think April is back end warm to hot.

Same story last several springs. Miserable Aprils and even Mays

[Brian5671]

33 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Same story last several springs. Miserable Aprils and even Mays

We did luck in with some warmth in March-hoping the models bust with the -NAO