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March 2021


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1 hour ago, JerseyWx said:

I think 17-18 was better tbh.  This year was really saved by 3 weeks in February.  No snow in March is disappointing too.

I personally hate March snow so us getting skunked isn’t a big let down to me. I rather get all our snow in DJF to maximize snow cover etc. 

 

17-18 I can’t rank higher because of a few reasons....

1. The cold pattern from December into January that year was mainly dry. The costal storm in early January mainly effected the jersey shore and LI.

2. February was a torch! Winter shut off after that early January storm until March. 
 

3. Horrible winter for snow pack 

4. The March climo hurt in different ways for all of those costal storms. The best event here was the last storm of that Month and it melted in two days 

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8 hours ago, Allsnow said:

I personally hate March snow so us getting skunked isn’t a big let down to me. I rather get all our snow in DJF to maximize snow cover etc. 

 

17-18 I can’t rank higher because of a few reasons....

1. The cold pattern from December into January that year was mainly dry. The costal storm in early January mainly effected the jersey shore and LI.

2. February was a torch! Winter shut off after that early January storm until March. 
 

3. Horrible winter for snow pack 

4. The March climo hurt in different ways for all of those costal storms. The best event here was the last storm of that Month and it melted in two days 

March snowfall aint all that great.  I actually like April snow better.  2002-03 was one of my favorite winters because we had snow in December, February and April.  It's important to have either a very good January or a very good February to make the winter.

 

 

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8 hours ago, Allsnow said:

I personally hate March snow so us getting skunked isn’t a big let down to me. I rather get all our snow in DJF to maximize snow cover etc. 

 

17-18 I can’t rank higher because of a few reasons....

1. The cold pattern from December into January that year was mainly dry. The costal storm in early January mainly effected the jersey shore and LI.

2. February was a torch! Winter shut off after that early January storm until March. 
 

3. Horrible winter for snow pack 

4. The March climo hurt in different ways for all of those costal storms. The best event here was the last storm of that Month and it melted in two days 

I liked the April 2018 storm better than any of those March ones.

 

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8 hours ago, bluewave said:

Our coming period of very windy cutters will produce another wave break in early April. It will be interesting to see how long that period of blocking lasts. These wave breaks that pop up in the 6-10 range make the day 11-15 forecasts very uncertain.


New run

63CF6711-DF60-4BBD-9519-436A5BE4585A.thumb.png.ed052f9967dc2dc7da03b77d4ef1898d.png

Old run

F4155CC2-D3BC-4180-9C14-7B5E46526D19.thumb.png.b9c1a21108e917b3dc7e318753722017.png

 

chances for early April snow?

 

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9 hours ago, uncle W said:

I liked the storms when I was younger better...40" snow seasons are the new norm...from 1969-70 to 1992-93 there was only one winter with 40" or more and that year was 1977-78...we have exceeded. that winter six times since 1995...my favorite snowstorm as a kid is a toss up of March 1960 and Dec 1960...as a middle aged man Jan 1996 is a favorite and maybe alltime favorite depending on what side of the bed I woke up that day...recent favorite storm is the Dec 2010...

January 2016!

 

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Interesting discussion from Mt. Holly for both Friday and Sunday.

Model soundings suggest winds will be increasing in this regime, 
  readily gusting to 35+ mph by afternoon. As winds begin to veer, 
  diurnal mixing peaks, and a reinforcing cold front approaches 
  the area, speeds will likely exceed advisory criteria in much of 
  the area. Winds at 850 mb will be approaching 50 kt, and mixing 
  has the potential to reach or even exceed this level. Seems 
  likely we will need a wind advisory for Friday afternoon and 
  evening, and if mixing ends up being more efficient than 
  currently advertised, a rogue severe-caliber gust may occur. 
  Held off on issuing wind headlines early this morning given 
  ongoing/near-term weather, but expect wind products to be  
  issued for the afternoon package. 
   
  Winds should decrease fairly rapidly Friday night as the 
  migratory surface low takes the strong pressure gradient with it 
  to our northeast. Strong cold advection will be occurring in the 
  post-frontal regime, but winds will not entirely decouple. Thus, 
  kept Friday night lows fairly warm, generally in the 40s to 
  around 50. 
   
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 
  A fairly strong system will affect the region on Sunday, though 
  the surface cyclone should lift well north of the region. 
  Nevertheless, upper dynamics look fairly impressive as an  
  initially positively-tilted trough begins to pivot to a more  
  neutral tilt as it approaches the East Coast during the day. A  
  100+ kt speed max at 500 mb will nose into the Mid-Atlantic  
  during the afternoon, collocated with a surging cold front to  
  the south of the aforementioned surface low. As warm advection  
  races north in the developing warm sector, convection should  
  readily develop along the attendant warm/cold fronts. Widespread 
  precipitation should occur in New England and the Mid-Atlantic  
  in this setup, with areal QPF likely exceeding a half inch  
  across the CWA (locally much higher amounts possible). Will need 
  to watch this system closely, as both severe and hydro issues  
  may be present depending on the usual timing/track issues. 
   
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Morning thoughts...

The storm responsible for yesterday’s significant rainfall has now moved away from the region. Yesterday’s precipitation totals included: New York City: 1.27” (highest figure since 1.85”, February 1, 2021); Newark: 1.35” (highest figure since 1.44”, February 1, 2021); and, Philadelphia 1.56” (highest figure since 1.59”, October 29, 2020 and new daily record for March 24).

Some of the warmest weather so far this year is now likely. The unseasonable warmth will climax tomorrow.

Today will be partly cloudy and noticeably warmer than yesterday. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 68°

Newark: 70°

Philadelphia: 71°

Some daily record high temperatures are possible across upstate New York, parts of northern New England, and Quebec. That region could also see some locally strong thunderstorms.

Tomorrow will be windy and very warm. Temperatures could challenge or break daily record highs in parts of the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. There could also be some showers and thundershowers. 

Daily records for March 16 include: 

Allentown: 74°, 1963

Bridgeport: 70°, 1954

Islip: 65°, 1976

New York City-JFK: 67°, 1954

New York City-LGA: 72°, 1943

New York City-NYC: 76°, 1922

Newark: 73°, 1943 and 1986

Philadelphia: 80°, 1921

Poughkeepsie: 75°, 1949 and 1963

A cooler weekend will follow.

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The last 7 days of March are averaging 54degs.(46/63), about +7.0.

Month to date is 42.6[+1.2].        March should end at 45.2[+2.7].

The first week of April looks cold at 42degs.(35/49), or about -6.0.      This represents a failure to communicate with EURO Weeklies, the 8-14 and the GEFS.

51*(98%RH) here at 6am, FOG <0.2.       53* FOG now <0.5 at 8am.         54* at 9am and back to FOG <0.2.     56* at 11am and FOG as dense as ever.     Fog lifted Noon to 12:30pm, at 58*/59*.       62* by 1pm.      63* at 1:30pm.     As predicted, T down to 58* by 2:30pm and some fog back in.

HRRR says coast gets to 60* by 2pm, then may fall back.

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57 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts...

The storm responsible for yesterday’s significant rainfall has now moved away from the region. Yesterday’s precipitation totals included: New York City: 1.27” (highest figure since 1.85”, February 1, 2021); Newark: 1.35” (highest figure since 1.44”, February 1, 2021); and, Philadelphia 1.56” (highest figure since 1.59”, October 29, 2020 and new daily record for March 24).

Some of the warmest weather so far this year is now likely. The unseasonable warmth will climax tomorrow.

Today will be partly cloudy and noticeably warmer than yesterday. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 68°

Newark: 70°

Philadelphia: 71°

Some daily record high temperatures are possible across upstate New York, parts of northern New England, and Quebec. That region could also see some locally strong thunderstorms.

Tomorrow will be windy and very warm. Temperatures could challenge or break daily record highs in parts of the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. There could also be some showers and thundershowers. 

Daily records for March 16 include: 

Allentown: 74°, 1963

Bridgeport: 70°, 1954

Islip: 65°, 1976

New York City-JFK: 67°, 1954

New York City-LGA: 72°, 1943

New York City-NYC: 76°, 1922

Newark: 73°, 1943 and 1986

Philadelphia: 80°, 1921

Poughkeepsie: 75°, 1949 and 1963

A cooler weekend will follow.

Didnt get much here near JFK, maybe half an inch of rain?

 

JFK should easily break Friday's record, dont you think, Don?

 

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13 hours ago, bluewave said:

These winter ratings are really subjective and can vary quite a bit from location to location. Northern NJ back to NE PA had a great snowfall outcome. Long Island snowfall was good but not great by recent standards. All the epic snowstorms since 03 have really raised the bar on what is considered a good or great winter. As for the 79-92 period, I enjoyed 81-82 and 82-83 more than this winter. Getting close to the jackpot of an historic storm is more important to me like February 83 and April 82. My 3 favorite snowfall seasons since 09-10 were 10-11, 15-16, and 17-18. 

 

I mean it depends, western LI was pretty good, a solid B winter.

Suffolk County sticks out too far into the Ocean and we're returning to the old storm track now.

You left out 13-14 and 14-15 lol.

14-15 was particularly amazing.
 

 

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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

All the cold comes in behind one of the cutters leading to the wave break and blocking. We would probably need a stray lake effect streamer or weak upper disturbance. So maybe one last T or perhaps .01 for somebody? Hard to tell this far out in time. But this will continue the ridiculous AO swings  pattern.

Remember April 2006, Chris?  Is that what happened?  NYC got its 0.1 to get to 40.0 and JFK had 1-2 inches of snow, that was quite heavy early in the morning of that day.

The other one I distinctly remember was in early April 1990 after it had already gotten into the mid 80s in the middle of March.

Were both of these that type of event?

 

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14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Remember April 2006, Chris?  Is that what happened?  NYC got its 0.1 to get to 40.0 and JFK had 1-2 inches of snow, that was quite heavy early in the morning of that day.

The other one I distinctly remember was in early April 1990 after it had already gotten into the mid 80s in the middle of March.

Were both of these that type of event?

 

 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Didnt get much here near JFK, maybe half an inch of rain?

 

JFK should easily break Friday's record, dont you think, Don?

 

Just go to the 3 day weather history on the noaa point and click and it gives you all the rain totals for each site. Looks like most of the heavy rain stayed to our west. 

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1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

April 2 - April 5 looks like the peak of the chill, then moderation beyond there.  Could be backdoor/onshore city for a period though so the warmup may not be that warm during the day.   

The only thing that could ruin a warm, sunny spring day is an easterly fetch off those cold Atlantic waters. 

We've seen a lot of that lately and we'll have too see if the -NAO is transient it longer lasting.

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