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Monday Morning 2/22 Snow Event


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46 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'm not expecting concrete accumulations but I'm game for some old sleet refreshing. The grass looks like one of Ellenwoods old maps with that translucent gray...I mean i don't live in Fairfax County for gosh sakes

Don’t be angry that you’re uncultured and afraid of the big time.

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Good  rates and morning start on Cold ground = accumulating snow :snowing:

 

 

 

Unless its rain :yikes:

After certainly a cold morning, it’s already 30 here in Baltimore with the sun blasting. So ground may not be as cold here as even I thought come tomorrow. N of the fall line I’m sure a lot better though 

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5 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

After certainly a cold morning, it’s already 30 here in Baltimore with the sun blasting. So ground may not be as cold here as even I thought come tomorrow. N of the fall line I’m sure a lot better though 

Should only hit mid upper 30s even in Bmore today and 20s tonight.  What was your overnight low ?

 

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

Should only hit mid upper 30s even in Bmore today and 20s tonight.  What was your overnight low ?

 

It was down around 19. I know but the sun is scorching out there too lol. We’ll see how low it gets tonight that might be key

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3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Its pretty much snowed or had a chance to snow every week for awhile now...if just one of these mf'ers had hit flush this winter would have a whole different feeling 

Yeah that’s what’s most disappointing. We’ve had the chances. I understand NW folks are pretty happy with the results for the most part but us metro guys, it’s just been disappointment after disappointment. All the chances and not one verified warning event. Snow wise anyway 

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I have had a snow pack for the entire month but somehow I feel I missed out.  Or ‘we’ missed out since other members of the forum have seen even less. So weird after zippo the past few years. I’ll be happy to get another inch. Not getting my hopes up per the seasonal trend for things to dry up as soon as they pass the mountain.  

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34 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

After certainly a cold morning, it’s already 30 here in Baltimore with the sun blasting. So ground may not be as cold here as even I thought come tomorrow. N of the fall line I’m sure a lot better though 

Cold ground isn't the issue. It's the rapidly warming low and mid level temps with the southerly flow. Might be a little better if we could invert the Low and High position. B)

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36 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Yeah that’s what’s most disappointing. We’ve had the chances. I understand NW folks are pretty happy with the results for the most part but us metro guys, it’s just been disappointment after disappointment. All the chances and not one verified warning event. Snow wise anyway 

You could see a coating to an inch in your hood if everything times out right, but this is clearly a northern tier deal. My temp will probably be 36 before the precip even arrives, so maybe some mangled flakes for a few mins.

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@CAPE there is a wave developing on the front as it passes us and there is a lot of very dry air in front of it that will cool as it saturates.  I agree it’s a long shot 95 SE but the only reason it’s not a straight up line of rain showers is it’s not a typical simple cold front passage. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

@CAPE there is a wave developing on the front as it passes us and there is a lot of very dry air in front of it that will cool as it saturates.  I agree it’s a long shot 95 SE but the only reason it’s not a straight up line of rain showers is it’s not a typical simple cold front passage. 

Yeah I get that, but it's still tough to overcome the southerly flow ahead of it on the coastal plain. It is possible the GEM/RGEM have the right idea, and that would work out pretty well for Baltimore proper even, and maybe get a little snow here.

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1 hour ago, Baltimorewx said:

After certainly a cold morning, it’s already 30 here in Baltimore with the sun blasting. So ground may not be as cold here as even I thought come tomorrow. N of the fall line I’m sure a lot better though 

Certainly a cold morning here but I wonder how much colder it would have been if the ground were white and not brown.  Friday's relative warmth and Saturday's sun were enough to melt the (almost) 1" I received - at least in non-shady areas.  Quite the contrast with the few of you to the north who have had full snow cover for several weeks 

Likely comes down to rates - an inch or two of snow is only a few tenths of precipitation  - it could happen

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1 hour ago, Clueless said:

I have had a snow pack for the entire month but somehow I feel I missed out.  Or ‘we’ missed out since other members of the forum have seen even less. So weird after zippo the past few years. I’ll be happy to get another inch. Not getting my hopes up per the seasonal trend for things to dry up as soon as they pass the mountain.  

I can relate. Even up here despite the fact I’ve done great objectively it feels somewhat hollow because all the events underperformed to a degree. Had the 3 “big” storms this year looked like a 3-6” storm from 72 hours out and ended up 10/12/8”  I’d probably feel a LOT different then the fact they looked like 20/20/12” storms from 72 hours and all trended down. I know that makes no logical sense but I feel more excited when I get a 6” snow that was only supposed to be 1-3” then a 10” snow that was supposed to be 15-20”.  
 

Don’t get me wrong I would grade this winter a solid B+ even now but had one of the big storms been a flush hit instead of a bit of a letdown it would be a A with the exact same results. I also think my perception is affected by results in the DC area since I spend so much time focused on forecasting for a s getting that area snow! 

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34 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah I get that, but it's still tough to overcome the southerly flow ahead of it on the coastal plain. It is possible the GEM/RGEM have the right idea, and that would work out pretty well for Baltimore proper even, and maybe get a little snow here.

I agree this is likely a forum divider (again) but it wouldn’t shock me if some decent snow sneaks in closer to Baltimore then normal given the low track. There are some pretty rare ancillary circumstances.  I’ve never seen a snowfall gradient like this year across our area before. I was looking at a snowfall % of normal map yesterday and across our area goes from much below normal right through the urban core to solidly above normal in the Catoctin area and along the PA line.  

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This product from the NAM nest (based off what the model microphysics thinks about how "pure" the snow is as it reaches the surface) has worked really well in some recent events, and it looks pretty reasonable to me for tomorrow (1-2 inches in northern MD).    IF the NAM nest is too slow with the arrival of the precip (a common bias, but a lot of the other guidance doesn't look *too* much faster), then we can potentially take more advantage of the colder profiles in place at the start of the morning.

945819419_ScreenShot2021-02-21at11_40_55AM.thumb.png.bec61b6c409cc5056af453de477e8c0e.png

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