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Feb 18/19 Disco/Obs


nj2va
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29 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

I disagree. First of all, very pedantic scrutiny of the word area. By area, I meant our area. Not sure how you derived otherwise, or how that's relevant.

Secondly, the 0z NAM last night was by far the most accurate solution. The pros specifically singled it out. If you took the snow maps verbatim that's on you. But the mix line and soundings were damn near right. 

I love that you clarified your diction by not contributing any new information whatsoever. Very helpful. In case it helps you, when I said area, I meant our geographic area of VA, MD, WV. If that's not what you meant, then I can't help you. If, on the other hand, you meant the geographic area like I did, then I'd hope you'd agree that a model's performance in our area is vastly more relevant than other areas where you might be able to point to relative success. 

I will direct you to the disco this morning which pointed out that although the NAM was close with the warm nose, it too underestimated it. Also, I'd like to point out that the NAMs busted in large part due to QPF overestimation, not because of the mix line. You can see that in the 00Z run which you previously called cherry-picked before you specifically lauded it. 

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30 minutes ago, mattie g said:

But which areas received 1" of QPF? Also, I don't see that this area has widespread 0.6"-1.00" of QPF, but I'm happy to be proven wrong.

The northern tier likely came the closest. The Winchester to Manchester area saw very heavy banding for about 8 hours under those bands. My guess is that we are above 0.8” QPF going off of 10:1 ratios. If ratios were lower, then we saw even more than that. 

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The weirdness of the roads helped make this event not fun or memorable.. but at least interesting. Even after repeated plowing/treatments even the main roads remind me of the Midwest. Persistent ice and compacted snow (in this case sleet) to drive on. A bit of a throwback for me in that regard... while at the same time seeing significant accumulating sleet for the first time.

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2 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

I am so glad I don't do this to myself anymore. Not going to lie though I had a moment. Just a short one right now.

 

But really you can't make it up. Just unbelievable bad luck we've had. At some point this bad luck has to end, right? Please PSU, make it stop?

 

 

IMG_6830.jpg

doubt it ends this year...maybe next!

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Still in awe at the power of that +1c warm layer between 800-825. With a surface look like this….temps in the low 20s at onset….heavy precip… we still managed to mainly be ice/sleet for the metros. That damn trough (lack thereof) killed us as far as getting an appreciable area wide snowfall. 

A83077BE-365D-4F53-AB8C-2C61E5CF69DC.jpeg

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1 minute ago, Amped said:

People have to know how to use the NAM

It sucks at precip amounts.  It is pretty good with the sleet snow line. 

It was actually dry here. Local weather station reporting 0.86 which is actually more than the NAM forecast

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this was a pretty unusual storm.  i think most forecasters busted because, let's face it, most storms start as snow and then switch to sleet.  having sleet essentially from the onset with ideal surface temps even during quality rates goes against the "precip cooling the column" science.  i haven't read every post and haven't really dived into the soundings, but there was obviously a pronounced warm layer that was either thin/warm or marginal/thick.  not sure...maybe others know.  either way, i don't think the atlantic has helped...it seems to have either caused the trough to be too far west too often or is just a response to other variables.  this one was absolutely a bust, but it was pretty understandable why any forecaster would have gone against sleet from start to finish.

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44 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Possibly. But we could also just keep model discussion in model discussion threads and then start a storm relative thread a day before they actually start. There’s never just one way of doing things. Doing things because that’s always the way they have been done is probably the worst rationale ever.

That works when we have one threat to track....but it gets really confusing when we have multiple threats being discusses all in one thread.  But I am ok whatever we do.  It never bothered me having multiple discussions in a thread....but it seemed to drive others crazy.  

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2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

You know I just looked out the window and it's flurrying tiny flakes lightly falling. I think this counts as cruel and unusual punishment. Though why can we get flurries now when I got a half inch of sleet earlier? What caused the atmosphere to cool down? 

I would assume the fact that the storm is departing and so is the upper level low, therefore the flow shifts more northly rather than southerly...in some cases the warm nose goes away.

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