mimillman

Feb 21-23 Why Not

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Omaha also down to 1/8 mile now.  4-5" reports coming out of that area already.

Models generally have 0.2-0.3" of precip for here/QC.  I think the kuchera ratios area actually too pessimistic along the I-80 corridor where in some cases they have it <10:1.  Think there's a good chance at 12-14:1 if we get into some good banding, so 3-4" looks possible.

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Sounds good over there! Looking for that here as well. Either way it is shaping up to be another great day on the sleds.

What a hell of a stretch. Other than the brutal cold, I have no reason to complain. In some ways we probably needed that to avoid any true threats to the snow pack. I'd be just fine to keep it going.

I ran about 85 miles outside in January. Mostly out on local park trails in/on the snow. February started a bit slower/more indoors, but man what a great run it has been.

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snippet from Milwaukee

Satellite imagery was indicating a few convective elements just on the north
side of the low, which is forecast to track through the area later
this afternoon and evening. The fgen forcing along the front is a
bit stronger than forecast and seeing some higher snowfall rates
occurring over IA this morning but whether those rates translate
east into our area is questionable. Bufkit profiles do show an
overlap of this better forcing from the fgen band the dendrite
zone, so certainly could support a few higher rates

 

AND

The dry slot based on guidance should stay just south of
the region but if it does meander north a tad could see more
limited snow across the WI/IL border.

 

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Should glacier the top of the snowpack if it actually changes to rain for a time and then refreezes.  Even if it doesn't change to rain, the snow ratio could trend so low that it essentially has the same effect.

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for those watching:

 

 WE'RE KEEPING AN EYE ON FOR   
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SHIELD OF   
PRECIPITATION COVERING MOST OF THE STATE OF IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO   
SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAT'S   
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE. SNOWFALL RATES   
HAVE BEEN PRETTY IMPRESSIVE OUT OVER WESTERN IOWA AND EASTERN   
NEBRASKA WITH AROUND 6-7+" OF SNOW REPORTED IN THE OMAHA AREA OVER A   
SIX HOUR PERIOD! WE WON'T QUITE REALIZE THOSE SNOW TOTALS OR   
SNOWFALL RATES, BUT THE LAPSE RATES OVER THIS REGION (GENERALLY 7-8   
C/KM THROUGH AND ABOVE THE DGZ) WILL SHIFT INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS   
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL   
FOR AT LEAST BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW RATES NORTH OF I-80, ESPECIALLY   
ACROSS FAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.  
  
THE MAIN ITEM OF CONCERN FOR THE GOING FORECAST IS A MID-LEVEL DRY   
SLOT
PIERCING THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHEASTERN IOWA.   
MODELS HAVEN'T HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON ITS PLACEMENT AND EVOLUTION   
WITH MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THERE SHOULD HAVE BEEN   
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI BY NOW WHICH IS NOT QUITE THE  
CASE. IF THE DRY SLOT CAN HOLD ITS OWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL   
HOURS, THEN THAT COULD CUT INTO OUR SNOW TOTALS A BIT, BUT   
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE DRY SLOT IS   
CONTRACTING AND WON'T HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON SNOW TOTALS BY THE   
TIME IT WOULD CROSS INTO OUR AREA.

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I have no idea if this is going to be wet snow, rain, or a bit of both here. I still see similarities to February 4th but no way is it going to be that whiteout type of fun lol.  As hoosier mentioned itll just add water to the snowpack. Our depth is down to about 12" on average and the water content I would say is about 1.3 to 1.4".  Doesn't seem like it's really going to freeze hard for a few days afterward but it's not like the snowpack is going away without a torch lol.

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9-10" has fallen from Omaha north/northeastward.  Unfortunately, it appears this will come at the expense of my area.  The good snow is lifting northeast toward Waterloo while I've been stuck with just graupel so far.  The HRRR continues to dwindle the event over here.

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I don't even know what to call the stuff that's coming down right now.  It's too small to even call pixie dust.  I guess frozen microbes would be a better term.  Man this thing sure turned into a pos.  Funny to think that I was thinking there may even be a chance at T-snow earlier lol.  If we end up getting 1/3" out of this I'd consider it a win at this point.

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1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Looking more And more like a dry slot nonevent for LOT. 

The freakish run had to end at some point. Back to standard LOT events

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The 18z NAMs indicate 2"+ amounts still possible in the CWA, but that's looking to be optimistic at this point. Would really have to rip under that next round out west of the MS River. I guess we'll see.

 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

The 18z NAMs indicate 2"+ amounts still possible in the CWA, but that's looking to be optimistic at this point. Would really have to rip under that next round out west of the MS River. I guess we'll see.

 

 

 

 

We've had an unbelievable run so a clunker not unexpected 

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Snowing at a good clip under this lead band. If there wasn't a gap behind this, this earlier start than it was looking like yesterday might have been a reason for optimism.

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7 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Snowing at a good clip under this lead band. If there wasn't a gap behind this, this earlier start than it was looking like yesterday might have been a reason for optimism.

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Snowing here now also 

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