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NorthHillsWx

February 18-19 MAJOR Ice Storm Threat

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We've got maybe .25 of accrual here in Gibsonville all the way down to the ground level bushes, no roads or crunchy grass though.  Power holding steady.  Complete lack of wind so far is a blessing on that front.

Honestly, thusfar I'll take it!  Pretty but not messing up people's lives.

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I understand what everybody is saying, but Raleigh is still saying a second wave is coming later today and could be .15-.25 additional accumulation. I still think it’s to early to call a bust for the border counties. They posted the latest graphics on Facebook. I hope it’s a bust, but still should proceed with caution in some areas. 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, hickory said:

I understand what everybody is saying, but Raleigh is still saying a second wave is coming later today and could be .15-.25 additional accumulation. I still think it’s to early to call a bust for the border counties. They posted the latest graphics on Facebook. I hope it’s a bust, but still should proceed with caution in some areas.

I’m at 32.2 with no obvious melting...yet.  Tim Buckley thinks that if minimal melting occurs and we get a slight additional glazing tonight, it could mean outage trouble.  There’s no way I’m getting much more than I already have, but I think you’re right.  Duke isn’t sending linemen home anytime soon.

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6 minutes ago, hickory said:

I understand what everybody is saying, but Raleigh is still saying a second wave is coming later today and could be .15-.25 additional accumulation. I still think it’s to early to call a bust for the border counties. They posted the latest graphics on Facebook. I hope it’s a bust, but still should proceed with caution in some areas. 

 

 

I've been saying this all morning.  The advisory for Wake always went until 7AM friday unless it is shortened...  Same goes for rest.  

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I’m curious about lapse rates right near the surface... It’s clearly right above freezing at 0-10ft above ground level (33.1), but the tops of the trees don’t seem to be melting off any ice. Is there any ballon data or other obs. available that has enough resolution to accurately depict temp at 50-100 ft off the ground?

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We are up to 33.1 and the ice is melting but the trees are still weighted down a bit. Our power just went off and on twice a few minutes ago.

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37 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

As @jburns taught me when I used "threat" in the thread title for the last storm, I think @NorthHillsWx learned we should never put MAJOR (especially in capital letters) in the title. It was certainly a MAJOR disappointment..

It was a major threat! Haha. Inches of digital ice

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35 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Not a lot of talk about tonight when high res models show freezing rain returning, particularly north of 85.

I don’t know how things are everywhere but here in west central Guilford it’s melting at the point that there will be very little left by sunset. That would almost certainly make the overnight icing inconsequential.

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WX station shows 33.2, driveway surface w/ laser thermometer shows 32.8. When I point the thermometer at the trees, about 30-50 feet AGL, the thermometer shows 27-29F.

There's visibly more ice now on top of the high pines and oaks than there was this morning. 0.65" in the bucket.

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1 minute ago, Dunkman said:

I don’t know how things are everywhere but here in west central Guilford it’s melting at the point that there will be very little left by sunset. That would almost certainly make the overnight icing inconsequential.

There is more precipitation coming.  I'm not talking about residual moisture from today.  

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Just now, PackGrad05 said:

There is more precipitation coming.  I'm not talking about residual moisture from today.  

HRRR is the most aggressive but to your point that would be significant icing if true

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6 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

RAH downgraded everyone except the VA border counties to an advisory.

Yep.  And they mentioned my thinking.  Temperatures on the southern edge will teeter between 32-33 all night....risks of some slick spots in the morning will remain, particularly for northern wake.

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8 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Yep.  And they mentioned my thinking.  Temperatures on the southern edge will teeter between 32-33 all night....risks of some slick spots in the morning will remain, particularly for northern wake.

My trees are still ice coated at the top but the melt line has risen about halfway up. Interesting to watch 

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Still 31.5 here. Pretty decent accrual of ice up this way but what everyone has been alluding to throughout the morning here about half of what I expected. In all honesty probably pretty lucky because double this I don’t think we’d have power. Easily 1/3” of ice eyeballing it. 

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1400 report for mby in Eden, NC:
33.9/33.4 and mist with 0.59 in the bucket
KSIF reporting 32/32 mist OVC 400
KMTV reporting 32/33 mist OVC 500

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I am truly happy with this bust. Had quite a bit of ice on the trees this morning. There was light freezing rain occurring with a temperature of 31.1º on my weather station. My temperature has been very slowly rising all day and now reads 33.4º. That’s all it took. For the past two hours ice has been melting from the trees to the point where the earlier noticeably drooping of the branches has almost returned to normal. Pavement was never an issue as it remained only wet throughout. A good day but I still want snow, damnit.

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1 hour ago, hickory said:

I understand what everybody is saying, but Raleigh is still saying a second wave is coming later today and could be .15-.25 additional accumulation. I still think it’s to early to call a bust for the border counties. They posted the latest graphics on Facebook. I hope it’s a bust, but still should proceed with caution in some areas. 

 

 

Was just talking to him about this. Def something to watch tonight 

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I will say, at least we busted with an ice storm. Some in the Mid Atlantic were expecting 5-8+ from this and got nothing but a coating of sleet and glaze. This forum would be in an absolute meltdown 

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1 minute ago, kc4wsd said:

1400 report for mby in Eden, NC:
33.9/33.4 and mist with 0.59 in the bucket
KSIF reporting 32/32 mist OVC 400
KMTV reporting 32/33 mist OVC 500

Just a stones throw from your location outside the city limits I'm currently sitting at 32.4/32.4 with a light drizzle.  I also measured .59" in the rain gauge. 

There's been a lot of melting taking place, but there's still plenty of ice around. The pictures below were taken less than 5 minutes ago. I think the wind may be gusting higher than the 4 to 6mph I reported earlier since the air flow to my Tempest station has about a 50% blockage. My Davis station hasn't shown any wind readings for hours for obvious reasons. 

785161438_218212pm1.jpg.079006a7035eb945095139627e36bae2.jpg

1061657494_218212pm2.jpg.5a5473ece5353119ff21c4a53eaef569.jpg

848703471_218212pm3.jpg.438450b463f34e6b535ac1a955d12428.jpg

 

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Just a stones throw from your location outside the city limits I'm currently sitting at 32.4/32.4 with a light drizzle.  I also measured .59" in the rain gauge. 
There's been a lot of melting taking place, but there's still plenty of ice around. The pictures below were taken less than 5 minutes ago. I think the wind may be gusting higher than the 4 to 6mph I reported earlier since the air flow to my Tempest station has about a 50% blockage. My Davis station hasn't shown any wind readings for hours for obvious reasons. 
 

How does the tempest handle the ice build up? Get any errors or weird readings for haptic rain sensor or wind readings?

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