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February 18/19th Storm Potential


stormtracker
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Unfortunately no time for me to participate until late afternoon. Imho- 12z meso thermals are important and should be weighted higher than globals now as long as there is no sig divergence with h5 progression. Also, about the right time for globals to start giving some back with heights/confluence. Hope not for sure but typically hard to avoid close in this year

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2 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Not sure, the QPF is lower and this smells like the inevitable drying trend as the storm nears in.   

There’s no doubt there is more snow in the initial thump in dc at least than 00z... check the soundings..Held steady with qpf in the dc metro.

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Just now, Baltimorewx said:

May not be puking fatties but HRRR at end of run has snow for everybody at 11z...earlier start for folks west

Yep, sleet line is way down in southern VA. I think in previous storms this year, the HRRR has been a little generous with snow vs. sleet compared to verification, though.

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3 minutes ago, GEOS5ftw said:

Yep, sleet line is way down in southern VA. I think in previous storms this year, the HRRR has been a little generous with snow vs. sleet compared to verification, though.

Yep...29-30 degree temps for most...hopefully that would drop a couple degrees once the steady stuff cools the column

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1 minute ago, Warm Nose said:

You said you weren't falling for it again and that we could take the snow split to the bank. So why does QPF matter to you?

The whole "drying trend" is nothing more than guidance adjusting the overdone juicy mid range solutions. Practically every storm does it and is more obvious/pronounced with storms that arent blocked from gaining latitude. Imo- 6z was still very impressive qpf given the precip timeframe. Heavies. 

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I don't necessarily agree with the "Drying trend".  Yes, the euro is no longer spitting out 1.4" of QPF but its, IMO, within normal run to run variance.  As we near events, models will always trim the NW extent, but ill be there will be some meso band in the usual places.  12z yesterday through 6z today.

12z Euro 1.png

12z euro.png

0z Euro.png

6z Euro.png

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