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February 18/19th Storm Potential

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Just now, jayyy said:

One is the euro. One is the 3K man….

Ugh.  You’re right and I’m an idiot. Point remains lol.

1C35826C-AA96-45F4-8B1C-7F8CD52DF5A0.png

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Just now, Baltimorewx said:

Ok but I bet even the weatherbell 10:1 map wasn’t like that storm vista one. Something was up with that map

Yeah dude. The SV map counts sleet/ice as snow. QPF is higher down that way and it counts sleet/ZR as snow - hence the higher totals depicted. Those SV maps are useless. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

What on gods green Earth are you smoking. 
C12B388E-DB80-4FED-BED0-79FC944BE862.thumb.png.517b116de6d3ebf478c7964b595f7a9b.png

It’s the only reason we have any chance at all lol.  The high position is not the reason we are flipping and not all snow.  It’s practically ideal.

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Two more model suites before I think anyone can even begin to accurately predict amounts given how the winter has gone. Not saying anything that I’m sure everyone on here doesn’t already know but this is far from set in stone. I would think bust potential is fairly high.

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Oh, hell yes. Definitely fear it’s a bit overdone with its somewhat cold bias in the mid levels (not as good at catching warming at 700 as mesos like the NAM are) but a solid overall look. Thinking 4-6” for Baltimore before a sloppy mess  

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Just now, LP08 said:

It’s the only reason we have any chance at all lol.  The high position is not the reason we are flipping and not all snow.  It’s practically ideal.

And its not like its a 1022 high thats weak AF.

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@CAPE It has the double max thing some guidance shows...the 6" plus area south of DC is from the lead wave Tuesday morning that DC is on the northern fringes of the heavy stuff with...then it runs a second heavy band of precip up in the afternoon and evening but 95 SE is mixy so the heavy snow with that is NW of 95...creating that kinda dead space of 4-6" in between the 6" plus zones.  Luckily this time the "dead zone" looks like a local minimum but not the total screw job some recent storms had.  

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Jackpot is near 81 and along the md line on every model. Pretty good agreement actually.

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21 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said:

I gotchu

ice.png

Jeez Louise... we already got enough ice this year in the metro RIC area, especially south of town. Still many without power. Give me the 18z GFS, or just rain, over this. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

@CAPE It has the double max thing some guidance shows...the 6" plus area south of DC is from the lead wave Tuesday morning that DC is on the northern fringes of the heavy stuff with...then it runs a second heavy band of precip up in the afternoon and evening but 95 SE is mixy so the heavy snow with that is NW of 95...creating that kinda dead space of 4-6" in between the 6" plus zones.  Luckily this time the "dead zone" looks like a local minimum but not the total screw job some recent storms had.  

This is what it looked like at 12z lol.

1613822400-2Yy3uCVuK30.png

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8 minutes ago, LP08 said:

It’s the only reason we have any chance at all lol.  The high position is not the reason we are flipping and not all snow.  It’s practically ideal.

Our good snowstorms have the high positioned just north of Lake Ontario.  Both 3Km NAM and the 18Z euro don't show that.  KU 101

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1 minute ago, AceDoc said:

Jeez Louise... we already got enough ice this year in the metro RIC area, especially south of town. Still many without power. Give me the 18z GFS, or just rain, over this. 

Yeah. I really do feel for you all down in Southern VA. This looks catastrophic for a lot of the area down there. 

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Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Our good snowstorms have the high positioned just north of Lake Ontario.  Both 3Km NAm and the 18Z euro don't show that.  KU 101

KU 101 also suggests that our KUs storms don't come from a +AO, +EPO, +NAO, and -PNA regime in a mod Nina. The fact that there's even an outside chance of getting close to warning level snows within a vicinity of the metros is pretty impressive here. 

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2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Geese might get a concussion

They would honk HAIL NO! :P

It's quite chilly and there's a nice NW breeze gusting to 20 here.  Supposed to bottom out in upper teens.

 

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8 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Ugh.  You’re right and I’m an idiot. Point remains lol.

Naw on closer inspection he is right.  The center of the high looks to be around the Mt Royal district of Montreal, just west of McGill University.  Ideally, using a composite of all snowstorms, we would rather that be in the Old Montreal district along the river...maybe a block southeast of Notre-Dame Basilica.  

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Naw on closer inspection he is right.  The center of the high looks to be around the Mt Royal district of Montreal, just west of McGill University.  Ideally, using a composite of all snowstorms, we would rather that be in the Old Montreal district along the river...maybe a block southeast of Notre-Dame Basilica.  

I laughed pretty good and also exactly what @Cobalt said.

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6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yep that is a hell of a betrayal. Matches everything else though.

It took your specific location from 6.5" to 4.5" on the Kuchera so not exactly a HUGE difference...and you are a local minimum between two meso bands which is not likely to be portrayed exactly accurate on a global at 48 hours out.  That said yea it was worse and put you in the split zone which given this season I totally get not wanting to see that.  

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151500392_3741745532539344_7278019865464607731_o.thumb.jpg.d196d2ef42c794d4112e5504d4b5b7a9.jpg

No Short Pump jackpot on DT's first guess.. not sure if that's something to be concerned about or not :ph34r:

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1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

151500392_3741745532539344_7278019865464607731_o.thumb.jpg.d196d2ef42c794d4112e5504d4b5b7a9.jpg

No Short Pump jackpot on DT's first guess.. not sure if that's something to be concerned about or not :ph34r:

That’s actually fairly reasonable I think unlike his last couple from what I remember 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It took your specific location from 6.5" to 4.5" on the Kuchera so not exactly a HUGE difference...and you are a local minimum between two meso bands which is not likely to be portrayed exactly accurate on a global at 48 hours out.  That said yea it was worse and put you in the split zone which given this season I totally get not wanting to see that.  

These things always seem to go from something simple and workable to convoluted. The good front end thump is perfect for this set up with the legit cold/dry air in place initially. That idea seems all but gone. The regular GFS still has it though. I will probably have to kick it out of bed in a couple hours.

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11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This is what it looked like at 12z lol.

1613822400-2Yy3uCVuK30.png

lol ok I see now...problem is the pivoltal maps are a LOT more conservative then those wxbell ones so its not a fair comp.  The 12z Pivotal only had you at 6.5" and its about 4.5 on 19z.  So yea a trend down...but not as extreme as it seems comparing a liberal 12z map to a conservative 18z one.  lol

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Just now, Baltimorewx said:

That’s actually fairly reasonable I think unlike his last couple from what I remember 

Was gonna say the same thing. Leaves room for movement either up or down. Where DT fails is he goes all in with big numbers and when that doesnt happen he loses once again. Nice map here though IMO. 

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