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February 18/19th Storm Potential


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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

lol ok I see now...problem is the pivoltal maps are a LOT more conservative then those wxbell ones so its not a fair comp.  The 12z Pivotal only had you at 6.5" and its about 4.5 on 19z.  So yea a trend down...but not as extreme as it seems comparing a liberal 12z map to a conservative 18z one.  lol

None of these maps are ever good lol. Just looking at the thermals I know what I need here. Precip needs to come in fast and fall hard, and even then 2-4" is probably the best outcome before mixing. That has seemed like a reasonable expectation, but with these latest solutions implying an initial dry area, that wont work. Now we are seeing some potential on the backside on some guidance, but I don't trust that a bit given how the coastal looks to evolve. That will end up being little to nothing at this latitude.

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12 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Our good snowstorms have the high positioned just north of Lake Ontario.  Both 3Km NAM and the 18Z euro don't show that.  KU 101

Ok... umm... so...AAAAHHHHHHH

Deep breaths, calm calm calm....count to 10....ok ready

1. The high is north of Ontario...it stretches across all of Ontario into southern Quebec and New England.  The exact to the fraction of a MB center of the high is irrelevant.  

2. Yes there are duel centers and one is a little east of where we might see the avg of all our HECS storms but... not all setups are the same.  This is NOT a HECS scenario.  We do not currently have any blocking.  Yes the extreme blocking we had kicked off the progression that got us to this point so I am not denying blocking had a lot to do with this threat...but at this moment there is none and without a high located in front of it, it would cut.  The high is kinda perfect for THIS setup...directly in the way of the axis of where the low wants to track.  Creating the resistance to the screaming SW to NE jet and forcing the storm to track further east then it would otherwise given the upper level flow.  


Not all setups are the same and you cannot apply generic rules to every snow scenario.  There are even some rare setups where we don't need a high at all...like in the case of a boundary wave along an arctic front or an inverted trough setup.  You have to analyze the physics of each specific synoptic setup individually.  

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3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

These things always seem to go from something simple and workable to convoluted. The good front end thump is perfect for this set up with the legit cold/dry air in place initially. That idea seems all but gone. The regular GFS still has it though. I will probably have to kick it out of bed in a couple hours.

I was noting earlier that the low track this go around is more of a hybrid Miller A/B, so at least this time we shouldn't have to worry (as much) about transfer issues or a rapidly impinging dry slot. Hoping this time we'll see a prolonged period of fatty flakes before the flip. While during the prolonged snow/sleet/freezing rain/back to snow event the other week I ended up with 4.0" of storm total snow, for the winter thus far I still have yet to see more than 2.5" before ending or mixing. So 3-4" is my bar. If we can get more than that from DC and areas along 50 east to the Cape, and add on a little glaciation with some sleet and freezing rain, I'll be happy. 

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1 minute ago, WxMan1 said:

I was noting earlier that the low track this go around is more of a hybrid Miller A/B, so at least this time we shouldn't have to worry (as much) about transfer issues or a rapidly impinging dry slot. Hoping this time we'll see a prolonged period of fatty flakes before the flip. While during the prolonged snow/sleet/freezing rain/back to snow event the other week I ended up with 4.0" of storm total snow, for the winter thus far I still have yet to see more than 2.5" before ending or mixing. So 3-4" is my bar. If we can get more than that from DC and areas along 50 east to the Cape, and add on a little glaciation with some sleet and freezing rain, I'll be happy. 

Yeah it has been clear since this first began trending back from what looked a rain event, that the best possible outcome would include quite a bit of non-snow p-types for the coastal plain. But now that we are here, the way to maximize the snow part is to get it to come in hot and heavy on the front end. Maybe the precip 'fork' look will morph into something different in the next few runs.

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33 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

KU 101 also suggests that our KUs storms don't come from a +AO, +EPO, +NAO, and -PNA regime in a mod Nina. The fact that there's even an outside chance of getting close to warning level snows within a vicinity of the metros is pretty impressive here. 

KU no but we often do get decent snow events AFTER a blocking episode breaks down due to the course of events that was already set in motion.  

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8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Previous runs of the HRRR has outright precip hole after the initial round of moisture. The 00z run appears to have that pretty much gone. Things lighten up, but it's not a nasty dry slot or anything.

Here's a fun comparison! I know it's the HRRR at range, but most guidance has wave 2 impacting our area.

hrrr-ma-instant_ptype_1hr-3685600.thumb.png.087fa1458cf541874cc9800a3f5267c6.png

HRRR at hr 46

ecmwf-deterministic-ma-instant_ptype_1hr-3685600.thumb.png.e2a64d594a0d1514e3dcd20ed0796f94.png

Aaaand Euro at the same time. Just a tiny difference. 

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