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February 14-16 Winter Storm Part 2

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Interesting line in the metar.  I'm guessing present weather drifting snow?

Someone made a mistake.

ORD issues rubbing off on MDW.


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Someone made a mistake.

ORD issues rubbing off on MDW.


.
Is DRSN supposed to be in a different portion of the METAR? I've seen it put there in the MDW METARs this winter.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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How do we read this?  1 inch last hour, 16 snow depth? 

For SNINCR to be attained, snow depth had to increase by at least 0.5” over the past hour.

The rounding used skews things.


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8 minutes ago, Chambana said:

Heavy band incoming. Shits the real deal boys, this storm is so fun. Grabbing my AirPods and walking again. 
 

Giddy doesn’t begin to explain my excitement. I’m on a high right now. 

You've also had 5 IPA's already. Lol, just kidding. Enjoy the walk. Happy to see you taking this all in. :D

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21z RAP still bringing the goods with an additional 14 inches for eastern lake and northern cook county image.png.9a82837ff478ff76ac239b17ee06894a.png

 

 

For reference, here's the liquid equivalent for the 21z RAP. Even if you assume lower than Kuchera ratios, that's still a lot of snow to come. 

 

23219262748d426fea1606156d7f7555.jpg

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Is DRSN supposed to be in a different portion of the METAR? I've seen it put there in the MDW METARs this winter.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk


It was placed in remarks as it should be and coded correctly, but “Present Wx” was not supposed to be in there ahead of it.


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Definitely ~1/4 mile vis here. Ripping hard with sustained winds around 15mph and higher gusts. Thought I had a secure measuring place but it has been well drifted over by now. Very impressive storm with much more to come. 

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Latest IND mesoscale update:

Quote
.NEAR TERM /619 PM EST MESOSCALE UPDATE/...

Expansive area of moderate to heavy snowfall continues across central
Indiana early this evening. Winds have steadily increased across the region
with a progressively tighter surface pressure gradient as low pressure tracks
into eastern Tennessee and the presence of stronger boundary layer winds
aloft. Beginning to see gusts routinely exceed 30mph since about
21Z and expect that to persist into the evening.

Forecast remains on point going into the evening and while snowfall has been
very heavy already late this afternoon...several factors point to the most
intense rates still set to come...likely in the 00-04Z timeframe.

May see a very brief lull through about 00Z in some areas where snow rates
relax ever so slightly. However...another surge of lift and a progressively
deeper plume of moisture advecting into the region will match up with
excellent mid and upper level diffluence over the Ohio Valley to enable
heavier snowfall rates to reestablish across the forecast area for a good
portion of the evening. Hints of a TROWAL feature lifting northeast across
the southeast half of the region over the next 3-4 hours will aid in an
intense burst of low level lift to run in tandem with the deformation axis
which is set to align just northwest of the path of the 850mb low. At this
point...that is likely to set up in a SW to NE direction bisecting the
forecast area in the vicinity of a Bloomington-Indy Metro-Muncie line.
This is where the most intense snowfall this evening should set up with
1-2 inch/hour rates easily being met for about a 3-4 hour window through 03-
04Z. Sweetening the pot is a piece of the low level jet getting pulled up
and around the top of the 850mb low...and aligning directly back into the
forecast area from the northeast for a couple hours this evening. This will
only enhance snowfall rates further.

There remains a component focused on conditional instability as well with
higher PWAT air advecting into the southeast half of the region over the
next few hours and interacting with the strong low level lift. Satellite
imagery earlier in the afternoon was hinting at cloud congestion and weak but
notable instability in play. Would not rule out a couple rumbles
of thunder and lightning strikes in the vicinity of the most
intense bands into the evening. The DGZ remains robust through the
evening which also supports the continued threat for big
dendrites within the heaviest bands and potential for accentuation
of snow ratios above the 12 to 15-1 we have been seeing up to
this point. At the same time...the colder air will be drawn in
from the northwest as the surface wave passes through the eastern
Tennessee Valley and should naturally bump up snow ratios through
the evening in addition to the boost from any intense lift in the
vicinity of the deformation axis. At a minimum...expect these
higher ratio potential to coincide with the heavier snow fall for
at least a few hours.

So taking all of the above into account...several hours of accumulating snow
remain for central Indiana. It appears that the 00-04Z timeframe will be
the storm sweet spot for the forecast area for the heaviest and most
efficient snowfall. An additional 4-8 inches above and beyond what has
already fallen looks likely considering above thoughts with
potential for locally higher amounts where mesoscale banding sets
up in the vicinity of the deformation axis. Wind gusts routinely
around 30mph will maintain significant blowing and drifting of
snow through the evening and even well through the overnight once
snow has diminished.

 

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18 minutes ago, Chambana said:

Heavy band incoming. Shits the real deal boys, this storm is so fun. Grabbing my AirPods and walking again. 
 

Giddy doesn’t begin to explain my excitement. I’m on a high right now. 

Lol, havent left my driveway, beginning to debate my decision to take one more ride lol.

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Just getting started here in NW OH/SE MI.  Looking like a solid foot+ in most areas.  Jealous of the folks out west that got to see a little day time snow.  But very fortunate we won't get visited by the infamous dry slot, as we usually do. 

To the METS out there.  Do you think our predicted numbers are legit??  

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huge west push of the lake bands..(main band and weaker band to the south)really booking it west...in fact may "overshoot" where it was expected to stall 

edit: same thing with the bands off of the WI shore per MKE radar

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4 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

huge west push of the lake bands..(main band and weaker band to the south)really booking it west...in fact may "overshoot" where it was expected to stall 

edit: same thing with the bands off of the WI shore per MKE radar

I like the radar returns in Lake County IL starting to fill in. 

It's a dream for that Lake Band in NE IL to come in 40 miles but at least a little enhancement would be great!

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8 minutes ago, TheRegionRat said:

Absolutely nuts here with snow and wind.  Are blizzard thresholds within reach?

Likely not, but it really has the look and feel of one.  I think the snow that was already on the ground and rooftops is adding to the conditions.

We could be snowing another 15-18 hours if we can at least keep some lake scraps going prior to the main band shifting east.

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6 minutes ago, TheRegionRat said:

Absolutely nuts here with snow and wind.  Are blizzard thresholds within reach?

Been wondering same, gonna head out for a walk soon but looking legit

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We have a fairly sizable excavation open at work so I anticipate that our day tomorrow will be reminiscent of like, the experience of the navvies who built the trans-canada railroad circa 1884, but with less whiskey and racial violence

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10 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

I've been quiet here, mostly just lurking, but I am getting buried! Rates are incredible.

 

Great to hear, as that is heading this way.

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10 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

I've been quiet here, mostly just lurking, but I am getting buried! Rates are incredible.

 

Flakes big, or small but efficient??  Still waiting for it to pick up here.  

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KMDW 152353Z 35016KT 1/4SM R31C/2800V4000FT +SN BLSN VV005 M11/M14 A3006
     RMK AO2 SLP204 PRESENT WX DRSN SNINCR 2/17 4/017 P0001 60002 T11111139
     11078 21128 58034 $

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2 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Great to hear, as that is heading this way.

Stebo!  What do you make of that doughnut hole in SW Ohio.  1.  What is that?  2.  Is it a dry slot.  3.  Will it affect us in NW OH and SE MI??

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