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Typhoon Tip

February 18th ?19th?

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I said "worse", which it was. I did not quantify it, you did. Small changes are significant when someone is on the edge. 

Learn some things.

God forbid an Ens mean gives you a tenth less. I mean just measure on a garbage can next to your roof and you will gain it back

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It's hard to imagine more than an advisory level  2-4 /3-5 Inch snowfall for much of the  interior.   Far southern interior / south coastal areas could benefit more from the initial waa thump and eastern /southeastern areas could benefit a little bit more if the follow-up wave trends a little bit closer. Perhaps we could see some low-end warning amounts in some of those areas with S and SW Connecticut seeming like the best chance as of now.  

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

What a snowhole and who lives in SECT?

Moosup is almost the bisection point between north and south CT, looking at the eastern part of the state (maybe a hair north of that line).  Definitely not southeast.  

I thought we had a Stonington poster here. 

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22 minutes ago, das said:

This has nothing to do with model performance. It’s not called modelology. If your forecast is based on model read outs rather than an understanding of cloud physics, fluid dynamics and numerical weather prediction comprehension, it’s not a forecast at all. 

I agree with this, models are a tool not meant to be taken as gospel. This is why I ignore those 10:1 ratio maps. I am trying to analyze the dynamics and temp profiles in the upper levels of the atmosphere to make my forecasts, which I wasn’t doing last month, and it did lead to some improvement but I clearly still have a long way to go before becoming a competent forecaster. However there is no excuse for a model to shift 50 miles east in one run this close to the event, especially with the atmospheric drivers in place.

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3 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

For the most part that is the way it is.  People who have less of a vested interest in a storm tend to pull an Irish exit out of the forum, or at least post less when the trend is not their friend.  With the exception of a few, most of us are guilty of this. 

Hopefully those not invested post less and pull an exit. It makes for better discussion when those who aren't invested or out of it don’t post. Exceptions being people like Brian and Will who always add science in their reasoning 

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1 minute ago, Cold Miser said:

Moosup is almost the bisection point between north and south CT, looking at the eastern part of the state (maybe a hair north of that line).  Definitely not southeast.  

I thought we had a Stonington poster here. 

Closer to Mass by 3 miles than LI sound if it matters at all

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Can't wait for when you heal up and we can see more pics of you and TB skiing together in thongs....NB

I would give my right arm to do it alas it will never happen again unless I want to be paralyzed or bleed out from internal bleeding. 

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1 minute ago, George001 said:

I agree with this, models are a tool not meant to be taken as gospel. This is why I ignore those 10:1 ratio maps. I am trying to analyze the dynamics and temp profiles in the upper levels of the atmosphere to make my forecasts, which I wasn’t doing last month, and it did lead to some improvement but I clearly still have a long way to go before becoming a competent forecaster.

Tool is the key word here. 

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Back to the storm discussion..  I find there are more red flags than green ones  I think QPF output has been too generous.  Mechanics are just not there for widespread 6-8"+

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1 minute ago, Cold Miser said:

Moosup is almost the bisection point between north and south CT, looking at the eastern part of the state (maybe a hair north of that line).  Definitely not southeast.  

I thought we had a Stonington poster here. 

Yea. I consider Steve ECT never SECT. 

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3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Back to the storm discussion..  I find there are more red flags than green ones  I think QPF output has been too generous.  Mechanics are just not there for widespread 6-8"+

They were yesterday’s runs but those jet dynamics seem to have evaporated into thin air on the newer runs. My interpretation of the atmospheric drivers must have been way off, with other storms I was able to identify where I went wrong but this one I just can’t figure it out. 

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19 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

It's hard to imagine more than an advisory level  2-4 /3-5 Inch snowfall for much of the  interior.   Far southern interior / south coastal areas could benefit more from the initial waa thump and eastern /southeastern areas could benefit a little bit more if the follow-up wave trends a little bit closer. Perhaps we could see some low-end warning amounts in some of those areas with S and SW Connecticut seeming like the best chance as of now.  

Like we haven’t seen these things trend north all season? Recall yesterday for example. And the idea the more that wrapped up , the better this next one would be. There’s literally nothing to prevent this from bumping north . The SE ridge always wins 

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CMC/RGEM had been the most robust with the reinvigoration and CCB portion for eastern SNE... 12z old GFS now on its own.

Still can't completely rule it out, but the trend is not good and we need that well-timed infusion of shortwave energy to reappear.

Otherwise, mechanics are just not there for more than 2-4" north of pike / 3-6" south, spots 7-8" along southcoast, and maybe a little enhancement east.

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hopefully Ryan posts less and pulls an exit :lol:

Some of us have already picked up on the lack of comments by certain posters today.

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15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Could be worse, but that sucks...at least you're alive.

More time to hallucinate high ratios into existence.

Can we get the new GFS run please. Holy heck not for this thread but explosion in the ocean

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I’m not as confident as I was 12 hours ago but there is still the possibility that these are just off runs. I’m still going to stick to my guns because we haven’t lost the euro yet and I haven’t seen any huge red flags indicating this south trend isn’t BS in regards to the atmospheric drivers in place. However, I would be lying if I said that this storm isn’t making me question everything I thought I knew about meteorology and forecasting.

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