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wdrag

Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event

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Couple more weeks and it will that time of year again when a 9 SD block sits on top of us until Memorial day. 

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12KM NAM coming in more S-E with later changeover...definite move towards Euro idea albeit it was a just a nudge...at same time the 12km NAM delayed the sleet change by an hour or so...the 3km isnt in far enough yet 

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WWA for 3-7 here:

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM
EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7
  inches.

* WHERE...In Pennsylvania, Pike and Wayne counties. In New York,
  Sullivan county.

* WHEN...From 3 AM Thursday to 7 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact commutes starting with Thursday
  morning.

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11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

12KM NAM coming in more S-E with later changeover...definite move towards Euro idea albeit it was a just a nudge...at same time the 12km NAM delayed the sleet change by an hour or so...the 3km isnt in far enough yet 

Soundings still show places like EWR going above freezing around 700mb by 20z.

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Subtle changes on the 18z NAM vs the 12z NAM. The warm air comes in a bit faster but it's also very close with 700mb temps maxing out at perhaps +1C. That could probably be overcome by heavier precipiptation.

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Subtle changes on the 18z NAM vs the 12z NAM. The warm air comes in a bit faster but it's also very close with 700mb temps maxing out at perhaps +1C. That could probably be overcome by heavier precipiptation.

I think that'll be the case. If the precip is heavier it'll be snow, lighter & more sleet though the first 4-5 hours should be all snow.

I do think the heaviest snows will be a bit north of where models show as is nearly always the case.

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10 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

WWA for 3-7 here:

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM
EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7
  inches.

* WHERE...In Pennsylvania, Pike and Wayne counties. In New York,
  Sullivan county.

* WHEN...From 3 AM Thursday to 7 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact commutes starting with Thursday
  morning.

Why not WSW ? Because of the long duration threshold vs inches fallen?

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Just now, Northof78 said:

NAM now has long duration storm though...not ending till Fri night...

It's still pretty much over by Friday morning except for light snow. Same deal as what happened with the last big storm. Accumulating snows should be over with by sunrise except for far Eastern areas.

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Just now, sferic said:

Why not WSW ? Because of the long duration threshold vs inches fallen?

correct. generally speaking only 1-2" will be falling for every 6 hours of this storm's residence.

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Just now, sferic said:

Why not WSW ? Because of the long duration threshold vs inches fallen?

The criteria is 7" for a warning up in that area but confidence of reaching that usually has to be at least 60%.

As I have always said, doesn't matter if you have a watch/warning/advisory ect. What matters is what actually falls.

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Just now, crossbowftw3 said:

correct. generally speaking only 1-2" will be falling for every 6 hours of this storm's residence.

No, the high end is 7" so more than likely warning criteria will not be met.

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7 hours ago, EpicHECS said:

Hmmm. That's an awfully unusual setup. Why would there be more snow where all of the mixing is supposed to occur? lol

Think your map might be upside down lol. 

because that historically has happened several times, the mixing only happens after most of the snow has already fallen and that area has the highest precip totals which matters more than like 20% mixing (if that).

It's not that unusual, that's why coastal Central NJ jackpots so often.

 

 

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1 hour ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Is the one that dropped 18" on Atlantic City and 12" on Montauk but missed NYC metro?  I always remember it being later in the season.

It may have been Feb, it was a long time ago...my first year teaching, and school was canceled. Never saw a flake.

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1 hour ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

On the flip side, I wonder if anyone here remembers the nearly "reverse bust" that occurred one morning in either 1998 or 1999 (but I think 1998.)  A threat that no one was really talking about at all materialized way offshore, but was enough to give Montauk a 14" blizzard (at least that's what the news was calling it)  while there was literally nothing but cloudiness at the Nassau/Suffolk border.  I still remember watching the radar over my dialup, amazed (and really aggravated) at how how well defined the cutoff was.

 

http://www.northshorewx.com/19990225SnowTotals.html

Sat-990225-16z.jpg

 

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1 hour ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Is the one that dropped 18" on Atlantic City and 12" on Montauk but missed NYC metro?  I always remember it being later in the season.

Feb 1989 predicted to be 6-8 but it was all virga, 20 inches ACY, 10 inches PHL and 2-5" on the eastern end of LI, nothing west of ISP.

Dec 1989 also predicted to be a 6-8 event in a historically cold month but it warmed up during the storm and we got 90% rain lol

 

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1 hour ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

On the flip side, I wonder if anyone here remembers the nearly "reverse bust" that occurred one morning in either 1998 or 1999 (but I think 1998.)  A threat that no one was really talking about at all materialized way offshore, but was enough to give Montauk a 14" blizzard (at least that's what the news was calling it)  while there was literally nothing but cloudiness at the Nassau/Suffolk border.  I still remember watching the radar over my dialup, amazed (and really aggravated) at how how well defined the cutoff was.

 

Me...I went to a public meeting in Southold for four hours and came out to like 8" of snow on my little Sentra. Ride home was harrowing until I got to William Floyd Parkway...almost nothing west of there.

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Just now, weathermedic said:

Upton going with wwa for the area

Cautious based on the evolutions suggested, but I get it with the modeling currently - can always upgrade tonight/early tomorrow AM.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Feb 1989 predicted to be 6-8 but it was all virga, 20 inches ACY, 10 inches PHL and 2-5" on the eastern end of LI, nothing west of ISP.

Dec 1989 also predicted to be a 6-8 event in a historically cold month but it warmed up during the storm and we got 90% rain lol

 

I don't think Phlly got anything from Feb 1989.  I lived about 15 miles N and W of the city at the time and it was bone dry. Woke up to sun shining dimly through the overcast-knew it was over right away....

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Just now, L.I.Pete said:

Me...I went to a public meeting in Southold for four hours and came out to like 8" of snow on my little Sentra. Ride home was harrowing until I got to William Floyd Parkway...almost nothing west of there.

that must have been 1999 in 1998 we had less than one inch for the entire winter until 5" a surprise snowfall on the first day of spring.

 

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6 minutes ago, Brett said:

The local stations are saying all accumulating snow is over by daybreak on Friday

probably true-won't accumulate much if it's lighter rates with temps near freezing during the day time

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

I don't think Phlly got anything from Feb 1989.  I lived about 15 miles N and W of the city at the time and it was bone dry.

it sounds like you experienced the same cut off we did.  The airport itself had some snow, it might have been 8 or 10.  But the cut off really was that extreme

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