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February 14-16 Winter Storm


Hoosier
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Just now, LansingWeather said:

Wow, I just got in the loop with this storm a bit. I don't think I have ever seen the entire state of texas under a WAW before. What a massive storm, too bad it seems to want to avoid the great lakes region.wow.PNG.818475dc2f94f9b2c360bb2727a6f621.PNG

That is impressive. I don’t think I’ve ever seen that either. The entire state. Mind boggling. 

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1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

12z Euro with a bump back SE from 6z run.

what is the official snow depth at ORD?

Fridays end of the day climate report had 13

they had an obs yesterday showing 15 (and 1 inch that hour) and they got more after that

This morning climate report for Saturday has them back down to 13?????

the record I believe is 29 back in 1979

with luck with the LES parking over them they may have 22-24 inches going into midweek

I assume the correct current number is higher then 13??

 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Going to be some wicked variation across Cook Co

 

image.thumb.png.bb2613797cfb5022fa7793014cbc2c6b.png

Wow, those totals are higher than Ive seen. I havent been following this storm though,  but GRR has only 2-3 inches in the lansing area. Hope it bodes better than that for you guys! The map above is such a nice spread the wealth storm

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6 minutes ago, LansingWeather said:

Wow, those totals are higher than Ive seen. I havent been following this storm though,  but GRR has only 2-3 inches in the lansing area. Hope it bodes better than that for you guys! The map above is such a nice spread the wealth storm

That it's a long-duration event with two periods of light snow might pump up the numbers.  If they clear the snowboard after every inch you might end up with a sum of 4", even though it's only 3" additional on the ground at the end.

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8 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

That is impressive. I don’t think I’ve ever seen that either. The entire state. Mind boggling. 

whats also crazy is that almost all of Louisiana and Mississippi under winter storm warnings as well. Add it all together with Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana, Mississippi and parts of Alabama this is a storm that will go down in the record books for them as I dont know the last time they've all been under warnings at the same time. 

Crazy thing is once this departs down there Monday evening, a lot of those same areas go right back to winter storm watch for Wednesday and Thursday 

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10 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Going to be some wicked variation across Cook Co

 

image.thumb.png.bb2613797cfb5022fa7793014cbc2c6b.png

Interesting to see the lack of a better lake enhanced signal on the Chicago side of the lake.  I think you probably discount it at this point as almost all signs point to the Illinois side getting pounded.

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Breaking the waves down for Toledo Metro, I'm thinking 2-3 for wave #1 and 7-9 for wave #2 for a total of 9-12. I came to this conclusion by taking the average qpf of all models minus the highest (NAM3k) and lowest (GEM) which ended up being 0.62" and a ratio of 15-18:1 overall. 

Looking at trends there should be a WWA for wave #1 and a WSW for wave #2. 

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11 minutes ago, ohiocat5908 said:

Breaking the waves down for Toledo Metro, I'm thinking 2-3 for wave #1 and 7-9 for wave #2 for a total of 9-12. I came to this conclusion by taking the average qpf of all models minus the highest (NAM3k) and lowest (GEM) which ended up being 0.62" and a ratio of 15-18:1 overall. 

Looking at trends there should be a WWA for wave #1 and a WSW for wave #2. 

Good thinking but just go with a WSW for the sake of simplicity.  

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1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

low-ball still.

Not sure if it's being mentioned much, but that's a hell of a DGZ to work with. Ratios are going to be sky-high on a broad swath of N/NW flank of the storm. DGZs are between 200-400mb in depth and wind shear is low, which would cut down on shattering/breaking aggregates. Saturation isn't great, but it's not bad, either. Pretty telling when the pos-snow depth change products on the models are significantly higher than the classic 10:1 maps. You don't often see that kind of delta.

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4 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Not sure if it's being mentioned much, but that's a hell of a DGZ to work with. Ratios are going to be sky-high on a broad swath of N/NW flank of the storm. DGZs are between 200-400mb in depth and wind shear is low, which would cut down on shattering/breaking aggregates. Saturation isn't great, but it's not bad, either. Pretty telling when the pos-snow depth change products on the models are significantly higher than the classic 10:1 maps. You don't often see that kind of delta.

One of the best in the game 

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