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February 14-16 Winter Storm


Hoosier
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30 minutes ago, Snownado said:

Good grief a better system on Thursday ? So they must be thinking at least 10" for Thurs ?

GFS v16 shows us cashing in on 12 inches with this first system and then ramps the total up to 18 by 00z Sat. So roughly 6 inches for the Thursday deal but still a long way out. It almost seems to follow the same track, snow amounts increase pretty linearly compared to the Monday system.

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CLE morning discussion:

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A pair of snow events are targeting the area for the short term
forecast period, bringing widespread, significant snow
accumulations from early Monday morning to Tuesday afternoon.
A surface trough will enter the region from the southeast on
Sunday night and nudge north into the Ohio Valley by Monday
morning. This trough will be supported by the right entrance
region of an upper level jet, isentropic lift, and moisture
advecting north from the Gulf of Mexico. This feature will
bring the first round of snow to the forecast area beginning
early Monday morning and extending through early afternoon.
Trends with this portion of the snow event are up and have 1 to
3 inches of snow west and 2 to 4 inches of snow east, all of
which will have an impact on the Monday morning commute. Now
that we are entering the window for some higher resolution data,
there are signals that this total could be bumped up a bit
higher, especially west over NW Ohio. This will need to be
something to watch for in future forecasts.

In previous forecast editions, it was advertised that there
would be a break in the snow on Monday afternoon and evening
before the next round and trend this morning show that the
timing of this break is shrinking as the first trough seems to
linger. At this point, still expecting light snow during this
break period with new accumulations up to an inch. The main show
will be on Monday night into Tuesday as a shortwave trough over
the south central CONUS will support the development of low
pressure over the northern Gulf coast. This low will move
northeast along the East Coast states through Tuesday.
Meanwhile, the forecast area will be on the back side of this
system and cold, so all snow is expected. As the low passes by,
a TROWAL (trough of warm air aloft) will set up across the area,
centered at roughly 700 mb, and lower level frontogenesis will
occur over the area, further forcing snow development. Meanwhile,
a new upper level jet enters from the southwest and the area
will be squarely in the left exit region on Monday night,
giving even more support for snowfall development. So what does
this mean? Widespread heavy snowfall is expected to develop
over portions of northern Ohio and NW PA with 4 to 8 inches of
additional snow expected by Tuesday morning. However, with all
of these features aligning, there is the potential for some
mesobanding across the area and snowfall amounts may be higher
than currently forecasted. This will need to be monitored going
forward. In addition, some recent short term guidance members,
most notably the NAM, have this heavier swath of snow further
west than the current forecast and this trend will also need to
be monitored.

This morning, we have decided to hoist a Winter Storm Warning
for most of our forecast area with a Winter Weather Advisory
for portions of Northwest Ohio. This event is tricky with the
exact messaging with multiple rounds of snow in a short window with
a snowfall duration of 27-30 hours in most areas. With snow
totals of 8 or more inches in that time span, the impacts of
snow will be felt across the region and merits issuing a warning
headline. In addition, there is potential for totals in
isolated areas to be higher (a foot for some), whereas the floor
of snow potential is still 5 to 6 inches in warning area, which
isn`t nothing. In addition to snow impacts, temperatures will
be cold through the event and with even a 10 mph wind, wind
chills in the single digits to near zero are possible.

The system departs to the east on Tuesday and while the heavy
snow will be quick to leave, residual moisture will linger
across the area and light snow showers are possible through
Tuesday with light accumulations. Tuesday night should be mostly
dry. Temperatures on Tuesday appear to be the coldest in
sometime with widespread single digits with breaks in the clouds
and a fresh snow pack to allow for temperatures to plummet.
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26 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

 

Yeah I have no clue what ILX is looking at. Not only should there be an advisory area wide but they could honestly about bring warnings up to the IL River. ILX loves to do everything last second but this is pretty ridiculous based on current model trends. Looks like this system could give me a bigger snow than the 2nd system now. 

Hourly grid has me at 3" off of .16" QPF

 

Screenshot_20210214-114801_Chrome.thumb.jpg.a7c278dfe922a034775703f37931f973.jpg

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Just now, LansingWeather said:

Wow, I just got in the loop with this storm a bit. I don't think I have ever seen the entire state of texas under a WAW before. What a massive storm, too bad it seems to want to avoid the great lakes region.wow.PNG.818475dc2f94f9b2c360bb2727a6f621.PNG

That is impressive. I don’t think I’ve ever seen that either. The entire state. Mind boggling. 

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I'm calling 3" here total in GRR on 0.2" liquid.  Hope I bust low.  I just don't buy that it will be super high ratio.  Will probably be mostly small flake dust as fringe synoptic events tend to be under cold conditions.  Lake influence areas will get better flake size and fluff.

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1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

12z Euro with a bump back SE from 6z run.

what is the official snow depth at ORD?

Fridays end of the day climate report had 13

they had an obs yesterday showing 15 (and 1 inch that hour) and they got more after that

This morning climate report for Saturday has them back down to 13?????

the record I believe is 29 back in 1979

with luck with the LES parking over them they may have 22-24 inches going into midweek

I assume the correct current number is higher then 13??

 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Going to be some wicked variation across Cook Co

 

image.thumb.png.bb2613797cfb5022fa7793014cbc2c6b.png

Wow, those totals are higher than Ive seen. I havent been following this storm though,  but GRR has only 2-3 inches in the lansing area. Hope it bodes better than that for you guys! The map above is such a nice spread the wealth storm

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6 minutes ago, LansingWeather said:

Wow, those totals are higher than Ive seen. I havent been following this storm though,  but GRR has only 2-3 inches in the lansing area. Hope it bodes better than that for you guys! The map above is such a nice spread the wealth storm

That it's a long-duration event with two periods of light snow might pump up the numbers.  If they clear the snowboard after every inch you might end up with a sum of 4", even though it's only 3" additional on the ground at the end.

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8 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

That is impressive. I don’t think I’ve ever seen that either. The entire state. Mind boggling. 

whats also crazy is that almost all of Louisiana and Mississippi under winter storm warnings as well. Add it all together with Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana, Mississippi and parts of Alabama this is a storm that will go down in the record books for them as I dont know the last time they've all been under warnings at the same time. 

Crazy thing is once this departs down there Monday evening, a lot of those same areas go right back to winter storm watch for Wednesday and Thursday 

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10 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Going to be some wicked variation across Cook Co

 

image.thumb.png.bb2613797cfb5022fa7793014cbc2c6b.png

Interesting to see the lack of a better lake enhanced signal on the Chicago side of the lake.  I think you probably discount it at this point as almost all signs point to the Illinois side getting pounded.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Interesting to see the lack of a better lake enhanced signal on the Chicago side of the lake.  I think you probably discount it at this point as almost all signs point to the Illinois side getting pounded.

No soup for you..

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Breaking the waves down for Toledo Metro, I'm thinking 2-3 for wave #1 and 7-9 for wave #2 for a total of 9-12. I came to this conclusion by taking the average qpf of all models minus the highest (NAM3k) and lowest (GEM) which ended up being 0.62" and a ratio of 15-18:1 overall. 

Looking at trends there should be a WWA for wave #1 and a WSW for wave #2. 

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