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2/6/-2/7 Snow Threat


wncsnow
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2 minutes ago, oconeexman said:

Well im almost ready to buy in! Def have been great for getting the higher rates and more precip than whats been modeled for the last couple of months here. I think that will benefit us in NW SC for once. Early onset with precip and a quick xhange over looks very likely to me.

Yea and even the dumpster fire nam shows that our thermal profiles  are fine even with that solution to score a front end thump. The problem with the nam is there’s no appreciable precip with the initial waa. Have to hope that’s wrong.(it’s on an island with that idea for now).

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2 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Huge impact in the low in the TN valley getting amped up. 06z was our peak run for snow in NGA and the Western Carolinas and the QPF looked like this:CFACDFED-FDA6-45FD-A7A4-56AF848E82A3.thumb.png.61862d61a084db38342a4d6a43314bf6.png

Now it's this:BA940052-DD4F-41BF-B486-809F266BC19A.thumb.png.c973acb9a16884d0ff768110df58ede7.png

This trend keeps up its turning into a true Miller B Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic/NE storm.

Yep, that is screwing up everything and the hi res models are trending stronger and stronger with it

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8 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

I don't know much about the ICON, but that sucker has been rock stead on its output, it's either really right or really wrong!

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_fh36_trend.gif

I still wouldn’t overthink the NAM for those who are going to pound an adult drink back in frustration. It has a known problem with overdoing convective processes, specifically 3k. Tends to have too much of a convective nature to it, which obv could affect temp profiles, etc (latent heat release from convective elements etc..) I wouldn’t fully discount it but more or less use it as a tool. Seems to be the most amped model at this juncture as well. Icon has been absolutely rock solid and to my knowledge (someone can correct me if I’m wrong) but has verification scores that would be acceptable to the likes of GFS and CMC

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6 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

I still wouldn’t overthink the NAM for those who are going to pound an adult drink back in frustration. It has a known problem with overdoing convective processes, specifically 3k. Tends to have too much of a convective nature to it, which obv could affect temp profiles, etc (latent heat release from convective elements etc..) I wouldn’t fully discount it but more or less use it as a tool. Seems to be the most amped model at this juncture as well. Icon has been absolutely rock solid and to my knowledge (someone can correct me if I’m wrong) but has verification scores that would be acceptable to the likes of GFS and CMC

I always like NAM thermals in CAD , but it’s about worthless imo with anything else 

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3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

GFS trending NW1551365400_snku_acc.us_ma(16).thumb.png.d0d2f003cde395bebf0a2aa15540c98d.png

The main problem here is you. Why did you title the thread the way you did?  Snow THREAT?  On Christmas Eve everyone says Santa is coming tonight. Sure enough he shows.  We don’t say there is a Santa Threat. If we did the old SOB wouldn’t show up either.

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1 minute ago, jburns said:

The main problem here is you. Why did you title the thread the way you did?  Snow THREAT?  On Christmas Eve everyone says Santa is coming tonight. Sure enough he shows.  We don’t say there is a Santa Threat. If we did the old SOB wouldn’t show up either.

I will take the blame lol 

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33 minutes ago, jburns said:

The main problem here is you. Why did you title the thread the way you did?  Snow THREAT?  On Christmas Eve everyone says Santa is coming tonight. Sure enough he shows.  We don’t say there is a Santa Threat. If we did the old SOB wouldn’t show up either.

Now that is funny . Lmao

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