PantherJustin Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, Iceagewhereartthou said: My biggest concern about this one is the time of day. We need it come in at night but this is the worst time of day. I know we can get accums in the daytime but its much harder. Add that to warm surface temps and it will be hard to get much. I am clouded over now and temp is 43, way too warm. Yea, even 100-150 to your North up 85 I’m hoping we get cloud cover Tomm and don’t shoot up to mid 50s like last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 How did the HRRR do on the upper level storm that went down east a week or so ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, WXNewton said: How did the HRRR do on the upper level storm that went down east a week or so ago? It wasn't terrible but totals were generally overdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Hrrr drops 1/2 inch liquid on Anderson county, sc from 8pm to 9pm with a snow sounding. I believe rates like that would overcome a shallow boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Significant improvement from 18z in my book. Really need the NAM to look better to feel comfortable with it though. I really feel like a lot of folks are putting way too much weight on the Nam runs. Go with the general consensus of globals and blend the short range models. The storm is not cutting to Cincinnati snd the SREF’s are out of date these days. I’m equally as excited for the 00z runs but logics and sound reasoning always win. Not calling you out by any means but just in general highlighting using models but also using physics and general knowledge of our areas is the key! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: So we’ve got the Mighty team of ICON/RAP/HRRR in our corner lmao “Superteam” You forgot the 18z Euro. It is in our camp as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 During the height of the precip it's colder too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: My biggest concern about this one is the time of day. We need it come in at night but this is the worst time of day. I know we can get accums in the daytime but its much harder. Add that to warm surface temps and it will be hard to get much. I am clouded over now and temp is 43, way too warm. It’s not coming in during the day. Heavy rates look to be here by 5:30-6:00pm at the earliest. Solar radiation is pretty much gone by then. Models show clearing skies later tonight. Just have to hope clouds roll in tomorrow morning at the perfect time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 NAM is running a bit warmer than 18Z already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Nam looks better to me through 17hrs. Shortwave over Oklahoma isn’t as amped. really shows on sim radar out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 So far Nam at 22 is less amped compared to 18z ninja’d by burrel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, wncsnow said: NAM is running a bit warmer than 18Z already hr 21 that low over Arkansas is 3 mb weaker than 18z maybe that will help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 Less heavy precip in WNC at 27 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Low back over gulf this run, but man that thing looks ragged! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Looking at 5h confluence over northern New England is stronger for sure but in general our s/w is flatter. Curious to see where it goes from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 850s are colder but there's less precip for areas that are cold enough so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 Warm nose shaping up at 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 improvements with precip but looks warm, it's a delicate balance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Little bit better run this time for the NW Triangle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Another red flag for me as of recent is the nams precip output. Tends to get drier prior to game time then tries to readjust at the last moment. That is clearly evident with the precip shield. Waiting to compare 3k to 12k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Warm nose shaping up at 30 Lol...850's are below freezing and 925 above. It's not freezing rain here! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 Whole lot of meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, franklin NCwx said: Lol...850's are below freezing and 925 above. It's not freezing rain here! Something about that map just looks off, kind of looks like my 2 year old started coloring on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 This run would get me to the previous 30 year mean so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Hr 28-33 redeemed itself up here anyway. @BornAgain13 you are literally either puking fatties or on the rain/snow line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 I'm a little confused at this run too. I have .7 qpf and only 2.5 snow and 850s and 925s are good here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWeenie87 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 The NAM features a cold front coming from the gulf LOL Think this may be a outlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, WeatherWeenie87 said: The NAM features a cold front coming from the gulf LOL Think this may be a outlier. The NAM is really good at showing every possible solution over the course of a couple days regardless of how based in reality they may or may not be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 Hi Res NAM sucks unless you have elevation or in VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 More interaction with the northern stream this run as well. Really trying to dig down from central IL. That may be something to keep an eye on next run or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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