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wncsnow

2/6/-2/7 Snow Threat

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2 minutes ago, oconeexman said:

Well im almost ready to buy in! Def have been great for getting the higher rates and more precip than whats been modeled for the last couple of months here. I think that will benefit us in NW SC for once. Early onset with precip and a quick xhange over looks very likely to me.

Yea and even the dumpster fire nam shows that our thermal profiles  are fine even with that solution to score a front end thump. The problem with the nam is there’s no appreciable precip with the initial waa. Have to hope that’s wrong.(it’s on an island with that idea for now).

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3 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

Yeah, seems very severe. 

The drastic swings need to be ignored sure over a 3suite constant if it goes 25 miles or so each time sure...... but 100 miles NW in one swing.... nah I wouldn’t buy that even if it swung in my favor. Everyone RELAX lol

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Another thing with the latest NAM was it was super slow with the precip. 3-6 hours or so slower than the last run 

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@Disc or anyone for that matter. I would love to get a sounding when the fgen at 700 is over southern VA. That band will make up for borderline 850s mark my words. Don’t give up yet @BornAgain13 Nam notorious for doing this. 

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Huge impact in the low in the TN valley getting amped up. 06z was our peak run for snow in NGA and the Western Carolinas and the QPF looked like this:CFACDFED-FDA6-45FD-A7A4-56AF848E82A3.thumb.png.61862d61a084db38342a4d6a43314bf6.png

Now it's this:BA940052-DD4F-41BF-B486-809F266BC19A.thumb.png.c973acb9a16884d0ff768110df58ede7.png

This trend keeps up its turning into a true Miller B Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic/NE storm.

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2 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Huge impact in the low in the TN valley getting amped up. 06z was our peak run for snow in NGA and the Western Carolinas and the QPF looked like this:CFACDFED-FDA6-45FD-A7A4-56AF848E82A3.thumb.png.61862d61a084db38342a4d6a43314bf6.png

Now it's this:BA940052-DD4F-41BF-B486-809F266BC19A.thumb.png.c973acb9a16884d0ff768110df58ede7.png

This trend keeps up its turning into a true Miller B Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic/NE storm.

Yep, that is screwing up everything and the hi res models are trending stronger and stronger with it

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2 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

And the RGEM says hold up a minute!

Looks like the Euro, lighter precip, more in the TN valley yet again 

qpf_acc.us_ma (6).png

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3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Looks like the Euro, lighter precip, more in the TN valley yet again 

qpf_acc.us_ma (6).png

Actually trended a here further south and looked a little weaker.

trend-rdps-2021020518-f045.sn10_acc.conus.gif

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The High over the NE built in a touch further south this run compared to 12z. Just small details at this point not really much more to go off of. 

trend-rdps-2021020518-f039.prateptype.conus.gif

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I don't know much about the ICON, but that sucker has been rock stead on its output, it's either really right or really wrong!

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_fh36_trend.gif

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2 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

I don't know much about the ICON, but that sucker has been rock stead on its output, it's either really right or really wrong!

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_fh36_trend.gif

The ICON is a model A snow Weenie made in their moms basement apparentlY 

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8 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

I don't know much about the ICON, but that sucker has been rock stead on its output, it's either really right or really wrong!

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_fh36_trend.gif

I still wouldn’t overthink the NAM for those who are going to pound an adult drink back in frustration. It has a known problem with overdoing convective processes, specifically 3k. Tends to have too much of a convective nature to it, which obv could affect temp profiles, etc (latent heat release from convective elements etc..) I wouldn’t fully discount it but more or less use it as a tool. Seems to be the most amped model at this juncture as well. Icon has been absolutely rock solid and to my knowledge (someone can correct me if I’m wrong) but has verification scores that would be acceptable to the likes of GFS and CMC

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6 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

I still wouldn’t overthink the NAM for those who are going to pound an adult drink back in frustration. It has a known problem with overdoing convective processes, specifically 3k. Tends to have too much of a convective nature to it, which obv could affect temp profiles, etc (latent heat release from convective elements etc..) I wouldn’t fully discount it but more or less use it as a tool. Seems to be the most amped model at this juncture as well. Icon has been absolutely rock solid and to my knowledge (someone can correct me if I’m wrong) but has verification scores that would be acceptable to the likes of GFS and CMC

I always like NAM thermals in CAD , but it’s about worthless imo with anything else 

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3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

GFS trending NW1551365400_snku_acc.us_ma(16).thumb.png.d0d2f003cde395bebf0a2aa15540c98d.png

The main problem here is you. Why did you title the thread the way you did?  Snow THREAT?  On Christmas Eve everyone says Santa is coming tonight. Sure enough he shows.  We don’t say there is a Santa Threat. If we did the old SOB wouldn’t show up either.

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1 minute ago, jburns said:

The main problem here is you. Why did you title the thread the way you did?  Snow THREAT?  On Christmas Eve everyone says Santa is coming tonight. Sure enough he shows.  We don’t say there is a Santa Threat. If we did the old SOB wouldn’t show up either.

I will take the blame lol 

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Just now, WinstonSalemArlington said:

No more thread starting for you! Lol

Hey now lets wait and see what happens first. I thought changing my profile pic may change mojo but alas..

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33 minutes ago, jburns said:

The main problem here is you. Why did you title the thread the way you did?  Snow THREAT?  On Christmas Eve everyone says Santa is coming tonight. Sure enough he shows.  We don’t say there is a Santa Threat. If we did the old SOB wouldn’t show up either.

Now that is funny . Lmao

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Scrolling back in time there have been many threads started with the word threat or threats in them so I'm not the lone ranger, just saying! 

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9 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Scrolling back in time there have been many threads started with the word threat or threats in them so I'm not the lone ranger, just saying! 

I will start the next thread and it will be an epic one :+)

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