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February 7th Storm Threat Discussion/Obs

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2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z 12K NAM 1 pm Sun

4465E3E3-EE26-47CB-8CA1-995D33375E76.png

40250E79-8233-4006-B706-6F81C2A2E058.png

That's really great news for most of you. That pincer around Baltimore that puts the least snow here and more all around is absolutely believeable 

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Last comment on the SREF because it’s already 3 comments too many but it’s good news and we haven’t had enough so F it... they didn’t really trend northwest what they did was the more common juice up the NW fringe of the precip field thing. Notice how tight the back edge is now on that gif I posted above. 

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Best case might be a 3/25/13 situation.  4” paste bomb on .5-.6” precip in the western DC beltway.  Never dropped below 32.8.  Started during the late overnight hours which helped.

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Oh, look at this

NAM and SREF threw us a false flag to start 12z so I’ll try to remain reserved until I see some ancillary evidence soon but this was a very good start.  I assume no one will mind when I analyze these good runs lol. 

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2 minutes ago, Ravens94 said:

Believe the surface isn't showing up the potential aloft. Looks definitely better 500-700 MB

namconus_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_16.png

Much better fgen this run. That’s a banding signature that supports heavy rates.  

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Just now, Ji said:

00z nam improved

That’s why I didn’t post on Wintery Mix after the 18z train wreck. I had a feeling 0z might reverse course and didn’t want to ping pong. 

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It’s because you came back. 
I'm going to call this the cedar point storm because the Rollercoaster ride for this event has been off the chart
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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s why I didn’t post on Wintery Mix after the 18z train wreck. I had a feeling 0z might reverse course and didn’t want to ping pong. 

My husband reports everything that you both say on Jay’s page.  He’s ignored my snow forecasts for almost 30 years, but he  loves the Wintry Mix.  Lol  

 

 

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