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George BM

February Banter 2021

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Just now, EHoffman said:

The NAM had the precip shield screaming out of here, and as a general rule of thumb I always knock off 2-3 hours for precip duration because it always goes faster in actuality.  NAM did an incredible job again.

Yep. I guess people just tend to cast my posts aside but I banged the drum last night, and I've been saying for years (in the NY forum as well) that the NAM(s) are greatly improved models. Yes, they're prevaricating. But that's what they do. At 12-36 hours they have been the best models this year bar none. 

When I was in Harlem it was the same deal. NAM was the first to catch onto something at the final hour. The massive 2017 blizzard that was supposed to bring 24-36" in March--it absolutely nailed the warm nose, and the pros had egg all over their face. 

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1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Yep. I guess people just tend to cast my posts aside but I banged the drum last night, and I've been saying for years (in the NY forum as well) that the NAM(s) are greatly improved models. Yes, they're prevaricating. But that's what they do. At 12-36 hours they have been the best models this year bar none. 

When I was in Harlem it was the same deal. NAM was the first to catch onto something at the final hour. The massive 2017 blizzard that was supposed to bring 24-36" in March--it absolutely nailed the warm nose, and the pros had egg all over their face. 

This 0z nam?  For whatever reason, events just dry up as they happen.  

 

1613685600-RhbMoYlejCE.png

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Just now, LP08 said:

This 0z nam?  For whatever reason, events just dry up as they happen.  

 

1613685600-RhbMoYlejCE.png

So you're cherry picking data points, congrats. 

The pros at NWS specifically mentioned the NAM's temperature profiles. And many received this QPF, just not our area.

Try again. 

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I say this in a non-condescending tone...hopefully as a weather nerd community, we have learned this winter the NAMs are very good inside of 36-48 hours...especially with thermal height profiles. @high risk has been a big supporter and advocate for it's benefit and hopefully people will elevate it in their forecasting toolbox. 

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Just now, Round Hill WX said:

I say this in a non-condescending tone...hopefully as a weather nerd community, we have learned this winter the NAMs are very good inside of 36-48 hours...especially with thermal height profiles. @high risk has been a big supporter and advocate for it's benefit and hopefully people will elevate it in their forecasting toolbox. 

You'd have to be willfully ignorant to ignore the NAM nowadays.  It might overdo QPF sometimes but it is a fantastic model for sniffing out suspect thermal layers.

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28 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I think I've got one more in me, then March is here and it's time to move on. And honestly, heading to the in-laws' in HHI in a few weeks might help the transition. But if there's a storm up here while we're gone, so help me God...

Same.  One more event and let's put this sorry episode behind us and get on to the 70's.

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Same.  One more event and let's put this sorry episode behind us and get on to the 70's.

If there's one thing we're really good at, it's 2-4" March slush bombs that melt by noon. Beautiful to look at but no need to shovel. 

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Not sure I can do this again. Absolutely horrible winter in Pasadena. Sun should be out shortly.

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Just now, Wetbulbs88 said:

I disagree. First of all, very pedantic scrutiny of the word area. By area, I meant our area. Not sure how you derived otherwise, or how that's relevant.

Secondly, the 0z NAM last night was by far the most accurate solution. The pros specifically singled it out. If you took the snow maps verbatim that's on you. But the mix line and soundings were damn near right. 

Ok you got your victory lap now stop 

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46 minutes ago, Majopa said:

Do you people and the others in the weather watching community ever get tired of being so wrong so often? 

Amazing content on a free site.

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok you got your victory lap now stop 

What are you talking about? I'm responding to posts. Plain and simple. I don't see you stepping into the darkness when someone debates with you. The double standard is incredible. And you betray your own ego by thinking I'm taking a 'victory lap'. If you're a true forecaster, being right shouldn't be the goal. It should be finding out the truth. And people are still coming after me for stating facts. It's plain childish. Look at the posts last night. I was on an island, and I happened to be on to something. Now I'm taking heat. 

It's happened several times in the short time I've been back in this sub, and quite frankly, I'm not going to just take crap if it continues. It's frustrating that I'm actually providing some foresight and it's being twisted, not to mention with bitterness. I don't give a sh*t if I'm right or wrong. It's that there's an exclusive culture here, and it's clear as day. 

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52 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Also...the nice thing about severe season too is the mood in here is way lighter. We miss a severe event and we all kind of shrug it off and talk about EMLs and joke around with each other. 

Winter weenies tend to bring out the low blows, insults and cranky behavior. I can pick out more than a few members of this forum that seem to have completely different personalities in summer versus winter. 

I was really glad when you put up the severe tracking thread a week or so ago -- severe season has become as fun to me as tracking the winter stuff, maybe even moreso, as the lead-up to tracking severe events can be a bit more abbreviated, with less likelihood of a complete shutout.

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2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

What are you talking about? I'm responding to posts. Plain and simple. I don't see you stepping into the darkness when someone debates with you. The double standard is incredible. And you betray your own ego by thinking I'm taking a 'victory lap'. If you're a true forecaster, being right shouldn't be the goal. It should be finding out the truth. And people are still coming after me for stating facts. It's plain childish. Look at the posts last night. I was on an island, and I happened to be on to something. Now I'm taking heat. 

It's happened several times in the short time I've been back in this sub, and quite frankly, I'm not going to just take crap if it continues. It's frustrating that I'm actually providing some foresight and it's being twisted, not to mention with bitterness. I don't give a sh*t if I'm right or wrong. It's that there's an exclusive culture here, and it's clear as day. 

Never meant to attack and I don't think we are actually arguing different points.  My feeling all along with this storm was needing to max precip from 5-10 am.  Most models, including the Nams gave decent precip in that time frame. The warm nose, even here, was washing out under heavy returns but couldn't sustain them.  The warm nose was real but it was really there on all models.  Most soundings i looked at were right on the edge.  The problem was the max in that morning timeframe went north and by the time the secondary max moved through, we were toast anyway.  

 

Maybe I am taking your points the wrong way and I apologize.  Just trying to discuss a "post mortem" so to speak.

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By far this storm is the sloppiest of this season.

March is coming, I'm sure there will be more fail.

Anyone remember March 1st, 1980?  Started out great with 7" all snow.  That was a Saturday.

The following Saturday, just. a week later the only snow remaining was piles in lots.  Severe storms that evening (well the severe parts missed us) but warm like May with thunderstorms in the evening.  A week after a legit warning event.  If this March is like that I'm fine with that.

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Just now, vastateofmind said:

I was really glad when you put up the severe tracking thread a week or so ago -- severe season has become as fun to me as tracking the winter stuff, maybe even moreso, as the lead-up to tracking severe events can be a bit more abbreviated, with less likelihood of a complete shutout.

It truly becomes just a friendlier, less "misery loves company" group for severe. That thread will probably be dormant for a month or more...For now I've just been occasionally peeking at monthly modeling to see what H5 pattern we might see for the warm months. 

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11 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

It truly becomes just a friendlier, less "misery loves company" group for severe. That thread will probably be dormant for a month or more...For now I've just been occasionally peeking at monthly modeling to see what H5 pattern we might see for the warm months. 

To me, I think it has to do with amount of buildup or anticipation of winter storms and the nature of winter storms themselves.  For severe storms, I think most of us going in know that on any given chance, some get them, most will not.  It is what it is.  Plus severe chance isn't something you spend nearly as much time tracking and analyzing (or at least pretend to know how to).  Just check on it, "cool there is chance" and move on.  It is much less of a time/emotional commitment for most I think.

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28 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

It truly becomes just a friendlier, less "misery loves company" group for severe. That thread will probably be dormant for a month or more...For now I've just been occasionally peeking at monthly modeling to see what H5 pattern we might see for the warm months

...Any potenial H5 patterns standing out to you atm?

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12 minutes ago, MDphotog said:

To me, I think it has to do with amount of buildup or anticipation of winter storms and the nature of winter storms themselves.  For severe storms, I think most of us going in know that on any given chance, some get them, most will not.  It is what it is.  Plus severe chance isn't something you spend nearly as much time tracking and analyzing (or at least pretend to know how to).  Just check on it, "cool there is chance" and move on.  It is much less of a time/emotional commitment for most I think.

Agreed - the time spent on winter storms is definitely way more than severe. The amount of times we fail on winter though would tend to argue we should always just assume we'll find a way to fail ;) 

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