George BM

February Banter 2021

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1 minute ago, EHoffman said:

Sometimes it feels like severe season is even more of a letdown than winter here!  I just want a derecho...

For sure. I think the issue with severe is that it's way easier to miss out on a major storm cell that is 10 miles wide at best versus a big coastal. But that's just severe - and honestly with severe at least in the summer you're usually only a day or two away from the next isolated storm chance (or more). You generally get more opportunities in severe season vs winter (perhaps not for a region wide outbreak - but just for strong-severe storms in general). 

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1 minute ago, mattie g said:

Yup. It's been the same thing time and time again this year.

I realize that it's dumb to complain, but it's good to vent after so much frustration.

@psuhoffman might be onto something regarding our new "normal". Looking at the soundings from IAD, the warm layer is only +1c, but it seems in previous storms that layer would be near 0 and rates would overcome any melting. Now it seems we cannot overcome the warm layer and require a perfect setup at all layers to score snow in/around the cities. Even the closer in n/w burbs are sleeting with this storm. 

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3 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

Sometimes it feels like severe season is even more of a letdown than winter here!  I just want a derecho...

Also...and this is not targeted at you - but as I've said before recently...the nice thing about severe season too is the mood in here is way lighter. We miss a severe event and we all kind of shrug it off and talk about EMLs and joke around with each other. 

Winter weenies tend to bring out the low blows, insults and cranky behavior. I can pick out more than a few members of this forum that seem to have completely different personalities in summer versus winter. 

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2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I had sent out a forecast to my friends and coworkers of 2-4 inches and then sleet and ice. Definitely another bust - and I thought I might be on the low end of forecasts :lol: - I'm not going to put down anyone who is bummed out by the storm - it's definitely yet another potential example of DC area climo shifting away from snow even more. Perhaps we only get a HUGE one every bunch of years and everything else will start being like this. 

Nonetheless - this hobby has always worked this way - must have been semi more interesting before we had NWP to look at. 

I understand the concern about climo shifting, but I'm not ready to lay the blame for a bad few years on that changing climo. Maybe I should, but I'm just not ready to do that yet.

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Problem here was precip this morning.  All of that got shifted to where PSU is since he got like 5 overnight.  Most models had the cities around .3 by 12z.  DCA recorded 0.07.

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

Also...and this is not targeted at you - but as I've said before recently...the nice thing about severe season too is the mood in here is way lighter. We miss a severe event and we all kind of shrug it off and talk about EMLs and joke around with each other. 

Winter weenies tend to bring out the low blows, insults and cranky behavior. I can pick out more than a few members of this forum that seem to have completely different personalities in summer versus winter. 

Totally...I wasn't even trying to be a dick earlier this week, I simply called out what I see all the time here and I ended up being mostly right.  I even toned it down past couple of days.

I think the knowledge in this forum is great and there's a lot of great posters, but we are all diseased weenies and get way too emotional over snow.  I sure do.

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Just now, mattie g said:

I understand the concern about climo shifting, but I'm not ready to lay the blame for a bad few years on that changing climo. Maybe I should, but I'm just not ready to do that yet.

Perhaps not a few changing years - but the overall gaps between "good years" - Maybe you're right and this year was just bad luck and bad timing - but @psuhoffman is right...some of these events with like tiny tweaks would have been MUCH better regionwide. 

Will be interesting to see what the rest of the 2020s hold. 

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Just now, EHoffman said:

Totally...I wasn't even trying to be a dick earlier this week, I simply called out what I see all the time here and I ended up being mostly right.  I even toned it down past couple of days.

I think the knowledge in this forum is great and there's a lot of great posters, but we are all diseased weenies and get way too emotional over snow.  I sure do.

It's honestly the reason I've taken to following @Bob Chill. High school/early college me would legit get like a depression after failed winter storms. Life has just sort of developed in a way for me that I still love snow, but I look at the fact that I still got some shovel time in (call me crazy but I enjoy doing it) and then the silver lining is that I didn't get trapped from seeing friends/family for an extended period.

Not to say I wouldn't give a kidney for a Jan 2016 again - I might consider it...just that I've changed since the Eastern days. It can be refreshing - I still get bummed - but I try to let it only be for a day or so and just sort of let it roll off my back. 

At a certain point I just decided enjoying weather and tracking sure beats going on a downer for days after a winter storm that could have been. 

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2 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

Totally...I wasn't even trying to be a dick earlier this week, I simply called out what I see all the time here and I ended up being mostly right.  I even toned it down past couple of days.

I think the knowledge in this forum is great and there's a lot of great posters, but we are all diseased weenies and get way too emotional over snow.  I sure do.

Congrats. Seriously. I can always admit when I’m wrong.  We were the PARA GFS and you were the NAM. 

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Clearly this is just one of those years that could have been. We still have some winter left - and lately March has been a true winter month. So we'll see if we can squeeze some more heartbreak for those of you who haven't been reaped yet ;) 

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Congrats. Seriously. I can always admit when I’m wrong.  We were the PARA GFS and you were the NAM. 

He definitely was right. I wasn't even arguing that he was going to be wrong the entire time - my argument was that if we were going to truly get a slug of sleet/freezing rain that it wouldn't be a "no big deal" and "wet roads" for DC. The storm itself just kind of busted as a whole. 

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

He definitely was right. I wasn't even arguing that he was going to be wrong the entire time - my argument was that if we were going to truly get a slug of sleet/freezing rain that it wouldn't be a "no big deal" and "wet roads" for DC. The storm itself just kind of busted as a whole. 

Oh i know my comment wasn’t putting you down at all. On that point we were right. 

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2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

It's honestly the reason I've taken to following @Bob Chill. High school/early college me would legit get like a depression after failed winter storms. Life has just sort of developed in a way for me that I still love snow, but I look at the fact that I still got some shovel time in (call me crazy but I enjoy doing it) and then the silver lining is that I didn't get trapped from seeing friends/family for an extended period.

Not to say I wouldn't give a kidney for a Jan 2016 again - I might consider it...just that I've changed since the Eastern days. It can be refreshing - I still get bummed - but I try to let it only be for a day or so and just sort of let it roll off my back. 

At a certain point I just decided enjoying weather and tracking sure beats going on a downer for days after a winter storm that could have been. 

Yeah dude honestly this winter has really accelerated it for me.  It's not worth my mood being ruined for something out of my control, especially something that's becoming rarer and rarer in this area.  I was fine like a day after the Miller B, so I definitely don't get as horribly depressed as I used to.

Just now, stormtracker said:

Congrats. Seriously. I can always admit when I’m wrong.  We were the PARA GFS and you were the NAM. 

I take no pride in it, I wish I was wrong.  I just have been through too many of these stupid borderline events in this dumb city to know how it's gonna shake out.

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4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And yet Texas gets snow...Seattle gets snow. Explain that, lol

Taking this to banter. This is what annoyed me the most this winter. It's not like it's just been super warm or a lack of precip. Places that have way worse snow climos than the DC area have gotten crazy winter weather and we've gotten jack crap for what, like the 4th straight year?

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Well, on to our next fail.  See everybody in the long range thread after this is over in like 3 minutes. 

you can go ahead and suspend me now. I got nothing left

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2 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said:

Taking this to banter. This is what annoyed me the most this winter. It's not like it's just been super warm or a lack of precip. Places that have way worse snow climos than the DC area have gotten crazy winter weather and we've gotten jack crap for what, like the 4th straight year?

Add Jerusalem and Istanbul to that list btw

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Well, on to our next fail.  See everybody in the long range thread after this is over in like 3 minutes. 

I think I've got one more in me, then March is here and it's time to move on. And honestly, heading to the in-laws' in HHI in a few weeks might help the transition. But if there's a storm up here while we're gone, so help me God...

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I'd be happy with 0.1" as long as the Euro, the Para and the RGEM don't show more than .2"  at any time within 72hrs of the storm and LWX has me at   .05 -.07"

 

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I went with 2-5" along 95.  At the time with all the doom posting about the NAM's showing no snow I kind of considered that a positive bust.  Even that looks high though, although remember sleet accumulation counts.  But I really thought with heavier banding it would mix with snow enough...but the heavy banding (again) set up NW of 95 so that didn't work out.  It was close...you can see during some of the heavy banding places pretty far SE did mix with snow.  I wanted to be optimistic.  Figured we were due for something to break good for once.  I was wrong about that.  But my "fear" all along for what could wreck this turned out to be correct.  Even up here I have mixed with a lot of sleet and its holding down accumulations.  

I could tell your emotions were coming into play on this one. It was tough to ignore the potential given the guidance. I appreciate that you're feeling for us down here. It's just beyond painful at this point. The NAM was onto something though, and NWS knew it. In fact I think they knew the warning for DC was misplaced by that point. They're disco last last night was literally the writing on the wall. 

Funny enough, even if it was all snow, it really wouldn't have been that great an event. Once again the swampy shallows of DC destroyed lift for much of the time. And this thing was in and out within what? Five hours at most? Another trait the pros at Sterling nailed, which none of the models did. 

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Just now, Majopa said:

Been here a bout a month or so. Accuweather.com has been better at predicting the weather than the 20,000 different models and forecasts posted here. 

In every other winter it has been the opposite. You're using an extremely small sample size. But you do you. 

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1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Just curious. Why are you here? Oh. And welcome to my ignore list. 

Wait.. there’s an ignore list 

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Just now, Majopa said:

I like to laugh

there's a banter thread. I can link to it if you can't find it.

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2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

I could tell your emotions were coming into play on this one. It was tough to ignore the potential given the guidance. I appreciate that you're feeling for us down here. It's just beyond painful at this point. The NAM was onto something though, and NWS knew it. In fact I think they knew the warning for DC was misplaced by that point. They're disco last last night was literally the writing on the wall. 

Funny enough, even if it was all snow, it really wouldn't have been that great an event. Once again the swampy shallows of DC destroyed lift for much of the time. And this thing was in and out within what? Five hours at most? Another trait the pros at Sterling nailed, which none of the models did. 

The NAM had the precip shield screaming out of here, and as a general rule of thumb I always knock off 2-3 hours for precip duration because it always goes faster in actuality.  NAM did an incredible job again.

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31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Do I have to go back to when we were only 48 hours out and post those trend gifs showing EVERYTHING with 6" plus for DC and Baltimore and trending better EVERY run?  Yea it immediately started to fall apart after that and by last night signs were this could go down this way...but this one has to hurt even more because it was trending better until about 48 hours out...all the others looked really good at like 100 hours but the slow bleed to fail started much earlier.  This one actually looked good at 48 hours and then fell apart.   Just because I was worried about the mid level warm layer...and I am not shocked it ended up killing a lot of people's snow dreams...doesn't mean I wasn't hopeful this one would be different and work out.  You don't find it amazing that we keep getting "decent" chances and they ALL break the wrong way for 95?  

Just think back and ask yourself what happened at roughly 48 hours before onset lol

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