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Central PA - Jan 31 to Feb 2 Winter Storm


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Just now, canderson said:

Yup. NNJ too. Someone out there gets more than 2 feet, easy, imo. 

I'm skeptical we get any of the CCB in HBG. I think we'll be too far SE. 

Very skeptical at this point just look at the radar. Easily 2 FT up in the NNJ NYC area. Damn. I got sucked into one model and it let me down. 

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Just now, canderson said:

Yup. NNJ too. Someone out there gets more than 2 feet, easy, imo. 

I'm skeptical we get any of the CCB in HBG. I think we'll be too far SE. 

I cautioned last night about the widespread nature of big totals getting back deep in C-PA on models like the 12k NAM while also noting that near term stuff like the HRRR probably wasn't seeing the deform shield well enough.. which looks reasonable so far this morning. I think some bigger totals do get back into C-PA but probably in a narrower area within most of the Sus Valley into the central counties seeing more moderate gains today. 

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Once again, for the umpteenth time...nothing definitive can be said. The ups and downs are dizzying. 

 - We never had any sort of model consensus (including the Euro)

 - We knew (or should have by now) that both a dry slot AND mixed precipitation was going to occur in the LSV)

 - We know the history of how delicate a Miller B set up is - implications with the transfer, the location, strength, direction, etc.

This is a storm that was and still is virtually impossible to predict. And that is why I defended Tom Russell 48 hours ago. His guess (which is what it was, a guess) was just as good as any out there. And he might end up nailing it for the LSV. He also might end up way off.

We don't know. Let's wait, watch, and see. 

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1 minute ago, MAG5035 said:

I cautioned last night about the widespread nature of big totals getting back deep in C-PA on models like the 12k NAM while also noting that near term stuff like the HRRR probably wasn't seeing the deform shield well enough.. which looks reasonable so far this morning. I think some bigger totals do get back into C-PA but probably in a narrower area within most of the Sus Valley into the central counties seeing more moderate gains today. 

I know you did Mag my apologies. 

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Just now, canderson said:

It's already a solid event! I pinned my hopes on 6" - we're getting that. 

exactly. that's what I'm saying. Its been snowing since yesterday. when was the last multi day event? No science behind my guess here, but i bet we crack double digits for the event in our area till this is all said and done. 

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Once again, for the umpteenth time...nothing definitive can be said. The ups and downs are dizzying. 

 - We never had any sort of model consensus (including the Euro)

 - We knew (or should have by now) that both a dry slot AND mixed precipitation was going to occur in the LSV)

 - We know the history of how delicate a Miller B set up is - implications with the transfer, the location, strength, direction, etc.

This is a storm that was and still is virtually impossible to predict. And that is why I defended Tom Russell 48 hours ago. His guess (which is what it was, a guess) was just as good as any out there. And he might end up nailing it for the LSV. He also might end up way off.

We don't know. Let's wait, watch, and see. 

Very true. I been doing this hobby forever and for me i should have known better. 

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2 minutes ago, canderson said:

It's already a solid event! I pinned my hopes on 6" - we're getting that. 

 

Just now, sauss06 said:

exactly. that's what I'm saying. Its been snowing since yesterday. when was the last multi day event? No science behind my guess here, but i bet we crack double digits for the event in our area till this is all said and done. 

Yes. Well done fellas! :) 

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Good morning all.  Earlier when I first went out to check my board and gauge I was a little surprised to see the gauge covered in a layer of ice.  As best I could tell, about 0.3" of snow/sleet had fallen between midnight and 9:00am this morning.  I cleared the board and melted the mess down. It looks like I got about 0.07" of freezing rain since I had 0.10" total liquid.  At 9:00am the transition back to snow began.  Right now it is snowing lightly with big snow bombs falling from the sky.  They really look like little bombs mixed in with some finer snow.  It's all very light and not barely accumulating so far.

So my storm total of mainly snow and a little sleet is now 4.0".  It would be great if the 12z NAM snow totals materialized out this far west.  I guess we just watch and wait.  

Temp now 26.1 degrees with almost no wind.

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11 minutes ago, canderson said:

It's already a solid event! I pinned my hopes on 6" - we're getting that. 

Yeah I came into this storm at 6-12. Looks like we're gonna get that. It's easy to see the crazy amounts the models put out and then your hype get deflated when they get close to nothing like that. Decembers storm taught me a lesson lol but that's because I was excited since it hadn't snowed in 2 years

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