Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979


Bob Chill
 Share

Recommended Posts

Just now, Ji said:
2 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:
18z Icon...looks like it took a step back on both the front end and the coastal. Real challenge this system has been. Tough to get any model to stay consistent for more than a couple runs. 

That's why you gotta run with the rgem lol

If the RGEM is right I’ll cook filet mignon on the grill for 5 people on this forum. My filets are pretty darn good too. Ask Millvillewx.

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

I find this inverse relationship interesting...every run that has a weaker thump has a better coastal result...stronger thump, worse coastal, lol

It's the mechanics of a transfer. Not all work the same but in this case the relationship is there because they are closely connected. Dont expect to get top end for both parts and definitely sacrifice some chickens so we dont lose the goods on both parts. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS still quite warm per usual... still over an inch of QPF for northern MD (a big bullseye over NJ/Delmarva). The closer to the coast low track would support a bit warmer solution, but I can't see us getting 1 inch of QPF in this storm without getting at least 5 inches of snow (since the ratios will likely be ok initially at least).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Bob Chill said:

It's the mechanics of a transfer. Not all work the same but in this case the relationship is there because they are closely connected. Dont expect to get top end for both parts and definitely sacrifice some chickens so we dont lose the goods on both parts. 

This is why I root for a 50-50 first then second. I don’t need a bomb polar cyclone for part 2 nor a primary on PEDs into Lake Erie. 
 

half from front end thump, half from backside love. Too messy when you get more one side or the other

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

It's the mechanics of a transfer. Not all work the same but in this case the relationship is there because they are closely connected. Dont expect to get top end for both parts and definitely sacrifice some chickens so we dont lose the goods on both parts. 

I see...Well the good news is that at least, barring a complete catastrophe, we can score on at least one end in case the coastal fails...so the thump is the cushion!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Once again....acceptable

What I am seeing is that while previously we were seeing the banding set up on a east to west trajectory, we are now seeing the models pick up on additional banding that sets  up in a NW to SE trajectory as the low slowly gains latitude.  This banding feature is being picked up by pretty much every model... its gonna to absolutely pummel someone.. a lot of suspense on this one.. I wonder which mesa scale model will nail it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

It actually ended better out here than I expected. We get into the later banding for a while. It is weird because every model shows me getting 8-12. They just all get their differently. :)

Lift and ratios and stuff mang. ;)

feeling really good about this one. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I find this inverse relationship interesting...every run that has a weaker thump has a better coastal result...stronger thump, worse coastal, lol

That’s how it goes. Stronger primary that hangs onto its energy longer = worse for coastal and floods our layers with warm air. Medium sized primary dying a nice death as it hits e KY/ OH to a strong coastal is the key - then #tuckbabytuck

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...