Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: GFS has the low farther west pretty close to Ocean City midday Monday. I find this inverse relationship interesting...every run that has a weaker thump has a better coastal result...stronger thump, worse coastal, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Ji said: 2 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: 18z Icon...looks like it took a step back on both the front end and the coastal. Real challenge this system has been. Tough to get any model to stay consistent for more than a couple runs. That's why you gotta run with the rgem lol If the RGEM is right I’ll cook filet mignon on the grill for 5 people on this forum. My filets are pretty darn good too. Ask Millvillewx. 5 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: You really should stop showing off your inability to read a map This made me laugh pretty hard 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: If the RGEM is right I’ll cook filet mignon on the grill for 5 people on this forum. My filets are pretty darn good too. It is fun to look at but its absurd and will not ever come close to verifying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: I find this inverse relationship interesting...every run that has a weaker thump has a better coastal result...stronger thump, worse coastal, lol It's the mechanics of a transfer. Not all work the same but in this case the relationship is there because they are closely connected. Dont expect to get top end for both parts and definitely sacrifice some chickens so we dont lose the goods on both parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Ravens94 said: 2 inches qpf Would be super helpful if you didn’t cut off the legend. It’s like the most important part of any map 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, mappy said: Would be super helpful if you didn’t cut off the legend. It’s like the most important part of any map 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: If the RGEM is right I’ll cook filet mignon on the grill for 5 people on this forum. My filets are pretty darn good too. Ask Millvillewx. This is very true. I'd fly home for those suckers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Ravens94 said: 2 inches qpf NE MD P U M M E L E D 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 GFS still quite warm per usual... still over an inch of QPF for northern MD (a big bullseye over NJ/Delmarva). The closer to the coast low track would support a bit warmer solution, but I can't see us getting 1 inch of QPF in this storm without getting at least 5 inches of snow (since the ratios will likely be ok initially at least). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: NE MD P U M M E L E D 1.75” here. Not too shabby 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Bob Chill said: It's the mechanics of a transfer. Not all work the same but in this case the relationship is there because they are closely connected. Dont expect to get top end for both parts and definitely sacrifice some chickens so we dont lose the goods on both parts. This is why I root for a 50-50 first then second. I don’t need a bomb polar cyclone for part 2 nor a primary on PEDs into Lake Erie. half from front end thump, half from backside love. Too messy when you get more one side or the other 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 It actually ended better out here than I expected. We get into the later banding for a while. It is weird because every model shows me getting 8-12. They just all get their differently. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Lost a degree in the last 30 min. This is when I wish we had earlier sunsets. 37.5/16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: It's the mechanics of a transfer. Not all work the same but in this case the relationship is there because they are closely connected. Dont expect to get top end for both parts and definitely sacrifice some chickens so we dont lose the goods on both parts. I see...Well the good news is that at least, barring a complete catastrophe, we can score on at least one end in case the coastal fails...so the thump is the cushion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: If the RGEM is right I’ll cook filet mignon on the grill for 5 people on this forum. My filets are pretty darn good too. Ask Millvillewx. If the RGEM is right you can cook me on the grill. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 HH GFS was kind of a shit run overall though. It has been the worst of the models for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, H2O said: Lost a degree in the last 30 min. This is when I wish we had earlier sunsets. 37.5/16 We do...just not during prime climo, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: HH GFS was kind of a shit run overall though. It has been the worst of the models overall for here. Probably the worse run since we started this endeavor. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 It actually ended better out here than I expected. We get into the later banding for a while. It is weird because every model shows me getting 8-12. They just all get their differently. Maybe your getting 8-12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: HH GFS was kind of a shit run overall though. It has been the worst of the models for here. Yeah, we ain't getting much more than 2-5'' after the initial thump besides a couple inches maybe on the backside and they don't normally work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 26 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Once again....acceptable What I am seeing is that while previously we were seeing the banding set up on a east to west trajectory, we are now seeing the models pick up on additional banding that sets up in a NW to SE trajectory as the low slowly gains latitude. This banding feature is being picked up by pretty much every model... its gonna to absolutely pummel someone.. a lot of suspense on this one.. I wonder which mesa scale model will nail it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 GFS is acceptable for me. My bar in CHO is 5” on the thump. All else is gravy. I can be a superstitious sacrifice as long as I get 5”. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: It actually ended better out here than I expected. We get into the later banding for a while. It is weird because every model shows me getting 8-12. They just all get their differently. Lift and ratios and stuff mang. feeling really good about this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 para is strange snow distribution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Probably the worse run since we started this endeavor. its the only model showing non snow tomorrow at 00z...throw it out. GFS shouldnt be used for short range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I always liked Canada 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I find this inverse relationship interesting...every run that has a weaker thump has a better coastal result...stronger thump, worse coastal, lol That’s how it goes. Stronger primary that hangs onto its energy longer = worse for coastal and floods our layers with warm air. Medium sized primary dying a nice death as it hits e KY/ OH to a strong coastal is the key - then #tuckbabytuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: lock that up and I will never post again 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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