Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[bishbish777]

925 temps never get above -1/-2 on Euro. Should be enough dynamic cooling with those precip rates to cool the entire column? 

The QPF in E MA is very impressive on some of these 12Z runs. 1.6" on Euro, 3.1" GEM, 1.8" UKMET for BOS

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

Ok I finally have to ask...,Is that area of lower snow totals in the western half of Merrimack County New Hampshire, from Concord west and north a real thing? I have to guess it is because it is showing up on almost every piece of guidance. Perhaps it’s a shadowing on a northeast wind from mountains? But that should only happen on the north northeast wind.

I think there may be an area of subby between the fire hose induced low level front in eastern NE, and the mid level deformation back over the Berkshires-NYS-VT.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Spanks45 said:

8-12 sounds good for us, for now....we can adjust as we get within 24 hours...18" is my max since we moved in 2014, looks to remain that way.

Yup. That’s the play. Doubt it changes but we’ll get another 24hrs of looksy before making our final call.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, we can all agree that the ULL closing off over Nashville isn't ideal.

Yeah I don’t think many in our forum want this type of trend. They want it to hook north but not that early. Something like the NAM is more ideal for a huge portion of the forum. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I like 00z a bit better....its a shade west....touch warmer w less precip here.

Noise.

Biggest changes south of Boston that run.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, we can all agree that the ULL closing off over Nashville isn't ideal.

Of course, But its the east/west track i think that affects more with this right now,. We can work out details when we get closer, Its going to change.

[TheSnowman]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

NARCAN maps will probably be pretty grouchy at the 33F....

NARCAN...... like NASCAR?  

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think there may be an area of subby between the fire hose induced low level front in eastern NE, and the mid level deformation back over the Berkshires-NYS-VT.

Thank you.  The deform back west doesn’t fully show up on the snow map but I’ve seen it many times.  I won’t complain about 6-8 but would for 2-4

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Biggest changes south of Boston that run.

Don't be surprised if this tics back se a tad like Sunday night...

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Still like 48 hours to go here at least... we’ll see what happens tonight and tomorrow.

If these little trends continue... it’s curtains down here.

Euro is like 2-4” of slop followed by a healthy dose of rain.

[NeonPeon]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Everyone has different wants, ha ha.

I think we all want snow.  The trouble is pull down the white blanket to cover these toes down here, and the northern nipples are wanting.

[Damage In Tolland]

Popes here! LFG

[NeonPeon]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Still like 48 hours to go here at least... we’ll see what happens tonight and tomorrow.

If these little trends continue... it’s curtains down here.

Euro is like 2-4” of slop followed by a healthy dose of rain.

I assume I'm getting slop and hope to be surprised.  I'm basically clinging to the nam, which isn't a great place to be in.

[SouthCoastMA]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Still like 48 hours to go here at least... we’ll see what happens tonight and tomorrow.

If these little trends continue... it’s curtains down here.

Euro is like 2-4” of slop followed by a healthy dose of rain.

Messenger shuffle? Not sure if you were around when he would seemingly will them into action w/ his posts. The late and impactful SE shifts don't seem as common anymore

[CoastalWx]

Someone is getting an absolute white pine whalloper. If I had to guess, Will to Ray. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

Messenger shuffle? Not sure if you were around when he would seemingly will them into action w/ his posts. They don't seems as common anymore

Yeah I remember. We’re going to need a shuffle and then some though, especially with anymore of these moves. 
 

It’s so marginal to begin with.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Someone is getting an absolute white pine whalloper. If I had to guess, Will to Ray. 

Will it be fluffbomb farther west?

[IowaStorm05]

The reason the latest NAM makes the most sense to me is not just because it’s wishful thinking.

Its because it behaves the least weirdly. 

[Hoth]

12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The CT skipjob is real. We’re gonna need some east ticks next 48hrs so this doesn’t blow all over EPA/NJ.

Play for a Jan '15 style rug pull.

[WeatherX]

E MA has been the jack for qpf on most model runs for a couple of days now.  If we can just get some dynamics going, this should turn out great.

Yup pretty clear now on qpf maxes. Dynamics and other short term players still TBD.


.

[Hoth]

11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

19 inches in Greenwich to 9.7 in Bridgeport to 6.5 HVN

West is best for coastal CT Peeps.

I will melt so hard.

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah I remember. We’re going to need a shuffle and then some though, especially with anymore of these moves. 
 

It’s so marginal to begin with.

I'm expecting 1" of slush. Expectations are low. 

[Sn0waddict]

12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

19 inches in Greenwich to 9.7 in Bridgeport to 6.5 HVN

West is best for coastal CT Peeps.

Bleh

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Will it be fluffbomb farther west?

Not for you...probably just under 32 there for a time before it gets colder near when storm ends. 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

I will melt so hard.

Kind of a western placed diet boxing day. Guess move that dry slit west as well.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Here is the trend  to shift heavy snows west with that ULL, which is opposite of what you want if you are still seeking to nix the "No HECS in back half of mod nina" rule

Hopefully too late in game to entirely ruin this event.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Not for you...probably just under 32 there for a time before it gets colder near when storm ends. 

Oh really? So we could snap some stuff. I was figuring 27-29

[Hoth]

11 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

NARCAN...... like NASCAR?  

Dude, don't forget Reggie!

[40/70 Benchmark]

This run is a bit too warm at the surface during heavy precip, judging by H925, so I'm not saying to toss it, but handle with care. Check H925 tems:

 

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This run is a bit too warm at the surface during heavy precip, judging my H925, so I'm not saying to toss it, but handle with care. Check H925 tems:

 

I love these maps. They seem to do a good job with ratios since they cover the 15-20:1 we get here in upslope after the storm passes.