Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[Rjay]

I want just one run tonight that doesn't show a disjointed/messy/sloppy phase.  I hope it's the Euro.  

[pstar3182]

13 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I want just one run tonight that doesn't show a disjointed/messy/sloppy phase.  I hope it's the Euro.  

Sounds like a description of Jerz

[USCG RS]

19 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I want just one run tonight that doesn't show a disjointed/messy/sloppy phase.  I hope it's the Euro.  

Eh. I doubt it. 

[Neblizzard]

38 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@Allsnow“La Niña is dead” - over a month ago from you lol another good one. Reality:

It’s far from a typical  La Niña Pattern, despite what you say.   Remember the big “failed call” from you in December?  The GFS is gonna be right with that confluence.  This isn’t coming north..  boy that worked out well 

[SnowGoose69]

14 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

It’s far from a typical  La Niña Pattern, despite what you say.   Remember the big “failed call” from you in December?  The GFS is gonna be right with that confluence.  This isn’t coming north..  boy that worked out well 

Under ordinary circumstances we would likely be in one now but the NAO is preventing there from being a massive SE ridge.   Also it’s somewhat crazy to keep this degree of blocking and -AO this far into a mod La Niña not to mention likely keep it through most of February.  I think there are few cases if any where a mod to strong La Niña was able to keep the AO and NAO negative well through February  

[MJO812]

21 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

It’s far from a typical  La Niña Pattern, despite what you say.   Remember the big “failed call” from you in December?  The GFS is gonna be right with that confluence.  This isn’t coming north..  boy that worked out well 

This February isn't going to be like a typical la Nina February. 

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This February isn't going to be like a typical la Nina February. 

The trof will still be centered to our west I think but closer than it’s been which might keep any ridging out over the Atlantic.  The pattern around day 10 and beyond on some ensembles looks a bit like February 1989 which was one of the colder moderate La Niña Februarys here, albeit still slightly above normal 

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The trof will still be centered to our west I think but closer than it’s been which might keep any ridging out over the Atlantic.  The pattern around day 10 and beyond on some ensembles looks a bit like February 1989 which was one of the colder moderate La Niña Februarys here, albeit still slightly above normal 

If the mjo goes into 8, all bets are off.

[MJO812]

Alot of monster solutions on the 18z eps for the area

[HVSnowLover]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

I want just one run tonight that doesn't show a disjointed/messy/sloppy phase.  I hope it's the Euro.  

Why tonight? Rather see that within 72 hours. 

[Rjay]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Why tonight? Rather see that within 72 hours. 

I just want to know it's possible.  The only model I've seen with a clean phase in the last couple days was the NAVGEM.

[romba]

3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Why tonight? Rather see that within 72 hours. 

Sure, but if it doesn’t show it before 72 hours then it’s very unlikely to show it after

[SnoSki14]

32 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This February isn't going to be like a typical la Nina February. 

The blocking will stick around and the trough axis will be to our west. Looks like a lot of cold on our side of the globe though.

Some tight gradient storms, SWFE are probable but could benefit New England more than us. 

[sussexcountyobs]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

@AllsnowKarma. It’s going to be funny when we have a raging SE ridge by the end of the 1st week of February lol It’s already starting to show up on guidance. The ‘SSW, epic cold and snow blocked January’ turned into an epic, monumental fail. What’s your other favorite saying...oh yea “CCB ownage” lol BTW, I’m still waiting for my “4-8 inch type deal” you said yesterday was going to be....I got a big inch, comical. I can’t wait to troll you lol

So again all knowledgeable one. As of tonight, what's your forecast for this Sunday thru Tuesday?

[SnowGoose69]

The 00Z NAM at 84 actually looks fairly close to the 18Z GFS at 90....how often do we see the NAM come into range and look that similar to the globals?  That is usually a sign of a big one

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The 00Z NAM at 84 actually looks fairly close to the 18Z GFS at 90....how often do we see the NAM come into range and look that similar to the globals?  That is usually a sign of a big one

Hope we can cash in on the front end stuff because that would really enhance totals if all goes well and also offer some protection if the coastal fails

[Wentzadelphia]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The 00Z NAM at 84 actually looks fairly close to the 18Z GFS at 90....how often do we see the NAM come into range and look that similar to the globals?  That is usually a sign of a big one

Yeah I’d put the NAM in gfs camp. It’s a lot faster than 12z euro is 

[David-LI]

26 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The 00Z NAM at 84 actually looks fairly close to the 18Z GFS at 90....how often do we see the NAM come into range and look that similar to the globals?  That is usually a sign of a big one

I've seen the NAM doing better at hr84 than the globals. Was it during the January 2015 storm the last time we got Nam'ed?

[Wentzadelphia]

3 minutes ago, David-LI said:

I've seen the NAM doing better at hr84 than the globals. Was it during the Jan 15 storm the last time we got Nam'ed?

I feel like the NAM at H5 has been better at the ends of its range than it used to. It still sucks at qpf placement and amounts though. I just don’t see the crazy wacky runs 

[Mitchel Volk]

2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Under ordinary circumstances we would likely be in one now but the NAO is preventing there from being a massive SE ridge.   Also it’s somewhat crazy to keep this degree of blocking and -AO this far into a mod La Niña not to mention likely keep it through most of February.  I think there are few cases if any where a mod to strong La Niña was able to keep the AO and NAO negative well through February  

It did in 1995-96 winter

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I feel like the NAM at H5 has been better at the ends of its range than it used to. It still sucks at qpf placement and amounts though. I just don’t see the crazy wacky runs 

Its been better for 2 years now.  It used to be automatically overamped at the end of the run every time

[MJO812]

[Nibor]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

h5 looked better.

[Rjay]

I know you've all been burned a lot lately but there really is a storm coming this time. I'm not going to promise a region-wide blockbuster but at least it's something real to track.  Wake the f up.  

[Rjay]

Just now, Nibor said:

h5 looked better.

Why post h5 when you can just post a snow map?

[MJO812]

Cmc 

NYC special 

Weird precip just like the gfs

[HVSnowLover]

Gfs looks great, cmc is a mess but still some snow 

[Nibor]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I know you've all been burned a lot lately but there really is a storm coming this time. I'm not going to promise a region-wide blockbuster but at least it's something real to track.  Wake the f up.  

Until I see the snow falling...

[Rjay]

Just now, Nibor said:

Until I see the snow falling...

 

Gfs, para and cmc look great tn. 3 for 3 to start the night.  

[USCG RS]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Why post h5 when you can just post a snow map?

Exactly.