Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[Rjay]

[HeadInTheClouds]

CMC snows for 2 days. 

[MJO812]

Cmc

[TriPol]

37 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

CMC snows for 2 days. 

2 days and all NYC gets is 9 inches?!

[eduggs]

7 minutes ago, TriPol said:

2 days and all NYC gets is 9 inches?!

Ignore the specific snow map numbers. The Canadian shows between 1 and 1.5" liquid for most of the area - mostly snow around and north of the City. There is a random QPF minimum right near the metro. But that's not representative of the wider area. It could easily end up as a maximum instead. That's a pretty good look for 6 days out.

[RDRY]

2 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

This deal has lots of potential...said captain obvious (me).  Euro tonight will be fun.

Not so fun. Trough delays going negative, and the system can't gain latitude. But this is a ridiculous setup, and all the ingredients are still there.

[Nibor]

I don't know if I've ever seen a model run so meticulously and leisurely try to avoid our area.

[MJO812]

Euro ensembles are way northwest of the op run.  Euro op is an outlier .

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, eduggs said:

If I'm being nitpicky it's not a particularly dynamic storm as modeled.  The vorticity isn't huge, so the PVA and upper level divergence is only modest. As a result, surface low deepening is not explosive, and correspondingly, precipitation doesn't explode either. But the upside is a possible long duration event and banding on the backside. 

these kinds of storms typically produce the most historic totals, not the dynamic ones

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Nibor said:

I don't know if I've ever seen a model run so meticulously and leisurely try to avoid our area.

it was threading the needle all right, but the wrong needle

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, eduggs said:

Ignore the specific snow map numbers. The Canadian shows between 1 and 1.5" liquid for most of the area - mostly snow around and north of the City. There is a random QPF minimum right near the metro. But that's not representative of the wider area. It could easily end up as a maximum instead. That's a pretty good look for 6 days out.

also mostly snow for all of long island

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

Agree with a storm this massive I’m more worried about suppression than warm. Even if it did mix the coast you’re still doing way better than being too far north and missing out on the monster 

if it does mix at the coast it's only at the beginning of the event, as cold air is being drawn into the storm.

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, Isotherm said:

The macro-scale physical forcing agents are conducive. After most of January +PNA/-NAO in the means and a few missed opportunities, favorability tends to reach a point of culmination during significant mass height field vicissitudes, e.g., as evidenced by the rapidly neutralizing NAO and PNA near the end of January. Meteorology being a probabilistically driven field, it always made/makes sense to emphasize that probabilities were/are heightened for snowfalls, but a deterministic guarantee that significant snowfall will occur is often imprudent beyond short range. Nonetheless, these lengthy wait times in conducive regimes are not uncommon (e.g., December 2010 wait time until very late month, near phase change). Here, we see the canonical jet retraction to off-west coast trough adjunctively with the decaying Hudson block/departing confluence, and amplifying Rockies longitude geopotential height rises. This should certainly yield a cyclogenesis event along the East Coast. The finer mesoscale details will be disambiguated, as everyone knows, in the coming days. But an energy transfer-primary-secondary appears fairly likely, with the potential for a z500 close off if the energies phase correctly. It's a legitimate threat within a legitimate, bonafide pattern, in fact the threat with the highest potential of success so far this January (verbatim, now, Jan 31-Feb 1). This still can imply a failure; that is certainly on the table. However, the macro-scale features in their phase changing capacities will almost guarantee an intensifying low on the coast, it's merely a matter of which region receives the brunt (on the east coast).

I remember Dec 2010 well, why is it that it's often the 3rd storm in a series that seems to be the "big one"? It seems to be the case this time around also.  Do the first couple do something to set the table for the third storm to be the big one?

 

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

Snow storm, December 19-20, 2009 - Storm Summary (raymondcmartinjr.com)

That storm also was a slow mover up the coast

and the EURO is stalled out and retrograding

Retrograding sounds a lot like the late Feb 2010 snowicane.  Looks like this one will be really windy too!

 

[wdrag]

Postied overnight basics from WPC.  00z/27 EPS very steady 6+ inland w of I95 DC VA northward to new England (despite the op member), GEFS a little less northwest but fairly steady, GEPS-GGEM and UK op appear suppressed southward and of course the 00z/27 EC op suppressed as well.  Plenty of variable solutions on the table. NAEFS is steady on this being a decent snow event for at least a part of the I95-I84 corridors though slightly slower onset (late 31). The graphics are WPC's ensemble confidence of 3+" of snow for the 24 hour periods ending Feb 1,2,3. 

[LibertyBell]

Walt, do you see this being a mix scenario at the coast?  Lee Goldberg and others are saying this is our best chance of an all snow event at the coast.

[wdrag]

34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Walt, do you see this being a mix scenario at the coast?  Lee Goldberg and others are saying this is our best chance of an all snow event at the coast.

If it's a hugger, it could be a lot of rain.  Predominant track is debatable... suppression is better for the coast.  What I do think is that half a foot or more is likely wherever the best track of this long duration event is (VA-northeastward).  That's why it's good to enjoy these small events that we just had the past 24 hours; no guarantees on the next decent snow.  Pattern evolution looks good to me.  Probably good to be enthusiastic about a nor'easter but not locked in on the big snow axis. Fingers crossed for whatever the forum wants. I just hope to surpass my very low 2019-20 winter total by Feb 3 here, which was about 20.7". Just need 2.8". Think we can do that pretty easily near I84 but if suppression dominates and shoves the track axis further southeast, then that could be in jeopardy.  Just too early. I think WPC has a decent mapping. 

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, wdrag said:

If it's a hugger, it could be a lot of rain.  Predominant track is debatable... suppression is better for the coast.  What I do think is that half a foot or more is likely wherever the best track of this long duration event is (VA-northeastward).  That's why it's good to enjoy these small events that we just had the past 24 hours; no guarantees on the next decent snow.  Pattern evolution looks good to me.  Probably good to be enthusiastic about a nor'easter but not locked in on the big snow axis. Fingers crossed for whatever the forum wants. I just hope to surpass my very low 2019-20 winter total by Feb 3 here, which was about 20.7". Just need 2.8". Think we can do that pretty easily near I84 but if suppression dominates and shoves the track axis further southeast, then that could be in jeopardy.  Just too early. I think WPC has a decent mapping. 

could a storm be both a hugger and be suppressed?  never seen that before but I suppose theoretically it's possible ha

[LibertyBell]

I've been waiting to see a storm that is the all snow equivalent of December 1992.  If this is a three day event this could be it.  The only other time a snow or wintry mix storm was like that here was, I think, in Feb 1922?  Might as well look at some maps of that storm also. 

I see you mentioned wind advisory possibilities, Walt, any chances we could have 50-60mph or even higher winds?

Couldn't find Feb 1922 storm, but I did find this

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knickerbocker_storm#Setup_for_the_event

 

An Arctic airmass was in place across the northeast United States; Washington, D.C. had been below freezing since the afternoon of January 23.^[2] The front that spawned the cyclone was almost completely dry until after it crossed the Gulf of Mexico, making this storm unique among large southeast snowstorms. Despite the slow start, a low formed and deepened rapidly off the Georgia coast as the cold front reached the Gulf Stream on January 27. Heavy snow quickly developed from the Carolinas to Pennsylvania as the low drifted north to the Outer Banks of North Carolina on the 28th. A strong high pressure to the north helped to cut the system off from the jet stream. As a result, the cyclone took three days to move up the East Coast of the United States which was double the normal time used by forecasters of that era to move storm systems up the coast. Snow reached Philadelphia and Washington, D.C. by noon on January 28, and continued into the morning of January 29. Temperatures remained in the 20s Fahrenheit (-5 °C) through much of the event.^[3]

[LibertyBell]

Feb. 4-7, 1920 - One of New York's most extended onslaughts of winter weather of all time brought 72 hours of snow, sleet and freezing rain (beginning after 2AM on 2/4 and ending around dawn on 2/7).  During this punishing storm, 4.41" of liquid precipitation fell, 17.5" of it in the form of snow (five to six inches of snow fell on 2/4, 2/5 and 2/6); the rest was sleet and freezing rain.  For much of the storm temperatures were in the 20s, and winds gusted between 35 and 45 mph, with wind chills in the single digits.

 

This was the storm I was actually looking for

https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2013/01/new-york-city-snowstorms-1979-2011-.html

[wdrag]

Just too early. If it's a hugger, it's not suppressed.  On wind... too early for me to say 50+ but we have it as a possibility. GEFS has a 30% chance gusts 50+ eastern Li late Monday.  

Will work on the topic header either late today or Thursday as by that time we should have more consensus. 

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Just too early. If it's a hugger, it's not suppressed.  On wind... too early for me to say 50+ but we have it as a possibility. GEFS has a 30% chance gusts 50+ eastern Li late Monday.  

Will work on the topic header either late today or Thursday as by that time we should have more consensus. 

thanks based on long duration and lots of precip, I have a little list of analogs I've compiled...let me know what you think of these three: Feb 1920, Dec 1992, late Feb 2010

[wdrag]

28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

thanks based on long duration and lots of precip, I have a little list of analogs I've compiled...let me know what you think of these three: Feb 1920, Dec 1992, late Feb 2010

Hi! I'm not an analog expert. I don't try to use them. I just go on patterns, and look for the opportunities on whatever light-moderate-major winter event. However, do share with others herein. They may have some helpful comments.  Sorry i can't be of more help.  Walt

[LibertyBell]

33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The EPS continues to look great. Hold this look through Friday and we will be in business. Don’t worry so much about the OP runs this early.

Chris, do you think this has a chance to be a majority snow event even for us on the south shore, moreso than the December event which was about 70% snow here?  We got 8 inches out of that one here, would've been a foot if it were all snow.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Those little details probably won’t be known until Friday or even the weekend until the storm is fully ashore in California.

Based on the EPS it seems to be less of a hugger than the December system and the SST are colder than they were then (even if still a little above normal, every little bit helps).  The margin of error is probably greater than the width of Long Island right now

[LibertyBell]

One thing I noticed is that the members that have the low weaker have it moving more slowly and further to the south.

 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, li_wx88 said:

Based upon recent history, whoever is in the jackpot right now is guaranteed to get stiffed. Biggest thing models are telling us this far out is what is not going to happen. 

I mean the chances with these kinds of storms are that a large percentage of people will get "stiffed" unless it becomes something on the scale of Jan 96 or Feb 03.

It could even seem like you wont get stiffed within 24 hours of the event.........and still get stiffed!  Remember March 2001, February 2013 and January 2015?  The last two were relative "stiffages" but we didn't get the 2-3 feet that were expected.

[li_wx88]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

I mean the chances with these kinds of storms are that a large percentage of people will get "stiffed" unless it becomes something on the scale of Jan 96 or Feb 03.

It could even seem like you wont get stiffed within 24 hours of the event.........and still get stiffed!  Remember March 2001, February 2013 and January 2015?  The last two were relative "stiffages" but we didn't get the 2-3 feet that were expected.

Remember them all too well! My fingers are crossed for this one, dying to bust out that new Ariens.

[North and West]

2 minutes ago, li_wx88 said:

Remember them all too well! My fingers are crossed for this one, dying to bust out that new Ariens.

I received a new EGo snowblower for Christmas... so we've had about 2"+ since then. I'm just hoping that if it snows, there's enough to use my new snowblower at least once before winter winds down. 

[li_wx88]

4 minutes ago, North and West said:

I received a new EGo snowblower for Christmas... so we've had about 2"+ since then. I'm just hoping that if it snows, there's enough to use my new snowblower at least once before winter winds down. 

Curious to hear how that handles a bigger storm, single or two stage?