Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[North and West]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

If this had a cleaner phase this would have been a monster storm with the stall and slow mover.

If? It's not happening for five days.

[Gravity Wave]

Finally a storm that doesn't look like it's doomed from the start. Excited to see what kinds of solutions the models spit out over the next few days.

[Heisy]

I don’t like relying on that late capture. That’s a complicated setup and just slightly different timing we could go from this run to crap pretty fast. I love the potential though. It’s very March 58 esque down in VA

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

The 12Z GFS for The February 1 storm. This is only totals from that event.

Fun to dream.

A whole lotta nothing for most of us....

[Yanksfan]

3 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

Finally a storm that doesn't look like it's doomed from the start. Excited to see what kinds of solutions the models spit out over the next few days.

It will be interesting to see if the storm slows down/retrogrades in future runs. More often than not it doesn’t pan out.

[Winterstorm0312]

Can someone post the Euro snow amounts map for next weeks storm please?

[Yanksfan]

11 minutes ago, Winterstorm0312 said:

Can someone post the Euro snow amounts map for next weeks storm please?

It’s in the New England forum. It shows 8-12 area wide.

[donsutherland1]

Some of the ensemble members still suggest that the PNA could be nearing positive levels or even briefly reach positive levels by February 1. At the same time, the AO is forecast to remain negative, as has been the case throughout almost all of meteorological winter so far. This trend in the PNA would suggest a pattern with greater potential for significant snowstorms unlike at present.

The February 1-2 event showing up on the guidance and highlighted by the ensembles for several days will bear watching.

[HVSnowLover]

49 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

A whole lotta nothing for most of us....

It’s a week out and it’s the gfs 

[uncle W]

the ao was close to neutral for the Feb 1961 storm but it was negative from late dec to late jan that year...the change to a more positive ao ended the record snowy and cold period...the nao went slightly negative for the storm after being mostly positive since early January...pna remained mostly positive...

daily ao...

1961  1 29 -0.203
1961  1 30  0.277
1961  1 31  0.344
1961  2  1  0.051
1961  2  2  0.198
1961  2  3  0.056
1961  2  4  0.057
1961  2  5  0.008
1961  2  6  0.715
1961  2  7  0.997

nao

1961  1 31  0.407
1961  2  1  0.126
1961  2  2 -0.048
1961  2  3 -0.126
1961  2  4 -0.079
1961  2  5 -0.002
1961  2  6 -0.010
1961  2  7 -0.178

pna...

1961  1 30  0.182
1961  1 31  0.105
1961  2  1  0.462
1961  2  2  0.553
1961  2  3  0.489
1961  2  4  0.554
1961  2  5  0.779
1961  2  6  0.435
1961  2  7  0.131

the Feb 1994 storm had a neg pna but it was positive a week before...ao was neg just before the storm...nao was positive like most of that winter...

1994  1 26  0.064
1994  1 27  0.139
1994  1 28  0.350
1994  1 29  0.532
1994  1 30  0.776
1994  1 31  1.076
1994  2  1  1.089
1994  2  2  0.671
1994  2  3  0.214
1994  2  4  0.141
1994  2  5  0.038
1994  2  6 -0.017
1994  2  7 -0.189
1994  2  8 -0.454
1994  2  9 -0.569
1994  2 10 -0.560
1994  2 11 -0.589

ao...

1994  2  1  1.535
1994  2  2  1.599
1994  2  3  0.503
1994  2  4 -0.865
1994  2  5 -1.166
1994  2  6 -1.451
1994  2  7 -1.321
1994  2  8 -0.483
1994  2  9 -0.055
1994  2 10  0.538
1994  2 11  0.892
1994  2 12  1.148
1994  2 13  0.848

nao...

1994  2  1  1.227
1994  2  2  1.150
1994  2  3  0.780
1994  2  4  0.492
1994  2  5  0.436
1994  2  6  0.342
1994  2  7  0.303
1994  2  8  0.296
1994  2  9  0.379
1994  2 10  0.765
1994  2 11  0.927
1994  2 12  1.058

[bluewave]

Our system will make big headlines as it slowly comes ashore in California over the next several days.

 

 

[MJO812]

Unreal qpf on the gfs and a long duration storm. Better  low placement on this run but it shows the thermals warm.

[LVblizzard]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Unreal qpf on the gfs and a long duration storm. Better  low placement on this run but it shows the thermals warm.

GFS thermals are useless. If there’s a huge CCB like that it will most likely be snow.

[SnoSki14]

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Unreal qpf on the gfs and a long duration storm. Better  low placement on this run but it shows the thermals warm.

Gfs is still trending south with the system (primary low). It'll be a while before it gets a clue. 

Suppression is the biggest concern, not thermals. 

[LoboLeader1]

48 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Our system will make big headlines as it slowly comes ashore in California over the next several days.

 

 

[Yanksfan]

38 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Unreal qpf on the gfs and a long duration storm. Better  low placement on this run but it shows the thermals warm.

GFS ensembles show 1.5 qpf area wide. Quite impressive for a storm still 5 days away.

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

One thing is for sure.  I would rather be here than Boston and it’s rare I’ll say that 5 days out of a Miller B type setup.  The fact everything this year has gone south from this range and the GFS has been too far north at this range probably means the end solution as far as northern/western extent would be at best the current middle ground of the GFS/Euro 

It’s weird because normally, almost always really, with the big coastal snowstorms, the GFS is way too far south/suppressed and consistently shows a miss, then it finally gets a clue in the closing few days before the storm and shows a hit like the other models already had been. This is the opposite right now

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s weird because normally, almost always really, with the big coastal snowstorms, the GFS is way too far south/suppressed and consistently shows a miss, then it finally gets a clue in the closing few days before the storm and shows a hit like the other models already had been. This is the opposite right now

Doesn't matter

Gfs showed a big storm with this week's  storm and look what happened 

[nycwinter]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Doesn't matter

Gfs showed a big storm with this week's  storm and look what happened 

finally reality is setting in for this winter you sound depressed..

[Albedoman]

well here is the forecast for Yosemite Ca.  Only in our wildest dreams for here. In just one night, they get more than our entire two seasons worth

 

Tonight

Snow, mainly after 8pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature falling to near 15 by 8pm, then rising to around 20 during the remainder of the night. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south southwest 10 to 15 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 16 to 22 inches possible.

Wednesday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 27. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 15 to 20 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 33 to 39 inches possible.

Wednesday Night

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 22. South wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 29 to 35 inches possible.

Thursday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 28. South wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 21 to 27 inches possible.

Thursday Night

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 18. South southwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 11 to 17 inches possible.

Friday

Snow, mainly before 4pm. High near 27. West southwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

 

 

 

[stemwinder]

4 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

well here is the forecast for Yosemite Ca.  Only in our wildest dreams for here. In just one night, they get more than our entire two seasons worth

 

Tonight

Snow, mainly after 8pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature falling to near 15 by 8pm, then rising to around 20 during the remainder of the night. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south southwest 10 to 15 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 16 to 22 inches possible.

Wednesday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 27. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 15 to 20 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 33 to 39 inches possible.

Wednesday Night

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 22. South wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 29 to 35 inches possible.

Thursday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 28. South wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 21 to 27 inches possible.

Thursday Night

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 18. South southwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 11 to 17 inches possible.

Friday

Snow, mainly before 4pm. High near 27. West southwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

 

 

 

Was in CA for many years, and am overjoyed that they are getting decent rain at least for now. There's nothing like a California Spring after a good wet season.  Been dry too long out there. 

[eduggs]

10 hours ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

The early consensus from the models from those systems 6 days out was suppression also only to come farther north with time. The 16-17th storm was a developing secondary that models had coming north to southern Jersey and then shunted east. It came further north and hugged the coast and we know what the result was. I'm not saying that will happen this time, just that there is a long way to go for this one. 

By my recollection, the northward shift and dryslot associated with the Dec. 16/17th event was related to the primary tracking pretty far north and being slow to dissipate.  And the secondary was slow to deepen and never developed a mature circulation to pull in cold air or develop a classic commahead. I don't recall a hugging track being the problem. But it doesn't really matter and has no bearing on what is likely to happen next week.

[MJO812]

Big shift to the euro 

[MJO812]

Alot of precip on this run but very disorganized

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Very scattered and disjointed

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Very scattered and disjointed

[NEG NAO]

GFS finally has storm exiting region early Wednesday almost 3 days after it started

[eduggs]

That GFS run is pretty close to perfect for most of the metro area. Ignore QPF for now. Just loop 700mb. Entrenched cold air. Long duration. Intense frontside and backside. Multiple mechanisms for generating heavy snow during different phases of the storm. It probably won't play out nearly that well, but as modeled it has lots of elements to make for a fun storm.

[cleetussnow]

This deal has lots of potential...said captain obvious (me).  Euro tonight will be fun.

[eduggs]

If I'm being nitpicky it's not a particularly dynamic storm as modeled.  The vorticity isn't huge, so the PVA and upper level divergence is only modest. As a result, surface low deepening is not explosive, and correspondingly, precipitation doesn't explode either. But the upside is a possible long duration event and banding on the backside.