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Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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BxEngine
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1/2” of hair spray, coating of spray tan, 3” of creatine. 

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The macro-scale physical forcing agents are conducive. After most of January +PNA/-NAO in the means and a few missed opportunities, favorability tends to reach a point of culmination during significan

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Watching snowman19 spam the weenie reactions is quite something.  

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, North and West said:

Out of curiosity - and I don't watch Local TV weather more than maybe twice a year - why not? Do you think he's wrong, or intentionally underplaying it?

it's a weird forecast.  If it were me I would say there's a chance of a storm-but to say rain or snow showers?  LOL   Why get that specific 5 days out?

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romba

romba

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

FWIW Ijust saw Lee Goldberg on tv. He said theres possibility of a decent snow, but right now he's expecting just on and off snow and rain showers for Monday.

Is that SO crazy? Possibility of decent snow but likely won’t pan out at this point sounds like great advice for the masses. Us obsessives can dream about weenie snow maps

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sussexcountyobs

sussexcountyobs

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, romba said:

Is that SO crazy? Possibility of decent snow but likely won’t pan out at this point sounds like great advice for the masses. Us obsessives can dream about weenie snow maps

I didn't say it was crazy, wrong, right, or a sound forecast at this point. I just stated what the guy said.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

This would be a heck of a way to start the Niña February pattern 

The models just are brutal this winter long term.  Remember 2-3 weeks ago this period was going to be frigid and snowy.  That failed.  7 days ago the 10-16 day ensembles showed there was gonna be a massive SE ridge in early February.  The GEPS/EPS gave up on that idea several days back, the GEFS is now slowly bailing on it.  Ultimately it seems the Niña pattern will never really take hold much like the El Niño one never did last year 

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted
Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

The models just are brutal this winter long term.  Remember 2-3 weeks ago this period was going to be frigid and snowy.  That failed.  7 days ago the 10-16 day ensembles showed there was gonna be a massive SE ridge in early February.  The GEPS/EPS gave up on that idea several days back, the GEFS is now slowly bailing on it.  Ultimately it seems the Niña pattern will never really take hold much like the El Niño one never did last year 

Models have been nothing short of horrific-especially in the long range (where they were never that good anyway)

The December storm 2-3 days out showed the areas getting 20-30 inches close to nothing....

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Upton  and Mount Holly question that outcome for the immediate metro

ZFP from KPHI (cod.edu)

ZFP from KOKX (cod.edu)

The forecast discussions explain the National Weather Service’s thinking at present. From Upton’s discussion: 

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The primary focus of the Long Term is the potential storm for
the beginning of next week.

High pres over Ontario and Quebec over the weekend will funnel
arctic air into the region. Temps will be blw normal, with the
NBM with local adjustments used for the fcst.

The models have been consistent with the potential for low pres
impacting the region for the beginning of next week...perhaps
for an extended period of time. The GFS has continued this
theme, but the 12Z run appears a lot faster than the model
consensus has been. The ECMWF is more consistent with a slower
timing. The differences are noted with the emergence of the upr
low from the Rockies on Sat mrng. The GEM supports the slower
ECMWF at H5 early Sat. For these reasons, the fcst leans towards
the slower model timing. The GFS wasn`t completely discounted,
but pops were limited to slight chance during the day on Sun,
which was blw the NBM.

In addition to the timing differences, there are also
uncertainties with track and intensity. The ECMWF continues to
resemble the progs it has been putting out for several runs, and
the GFS is echoing this type of soln as well. Both models have
a blocking high over the Atlc which will serve to slow the sys.
The fcst keeps pops at high chance Mon and Mon ngt. Pops were
raised abv the NBM on Tue to the chance category due to
increased confidence in a slowing sys.

Depending on the exact track, srn and ern areas could see
mixing or a changeover to rain by Mon, lasting thru Mon ngt
before everything ends as snow. Typical north and west areas
mainly snow attm.

Using the 12Z runs as perfect progs, the ECMWF would be a lot
of rain for the coasts and ern areas with the low slipping
inside the benchmark. The GFS would be mainly snow with the low
staying s and e of the benchmark.
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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The models just are brutal this winter long term.  Remember 2-3 weeks ago this period was going to be frigid and snowy.  That failed.  7 days ago the 10-16 day ensembles showed there was gonna be a massive SE ridge in early February.  The GEPS/EPS gave up on that idea several days back, the GEFS is now slowly bailing on it.  Ultimately it seems the Niña pattern will never really take hold much like the El Niño one never did last year 

Yep, that RNA pattern pattern has been stuck in week3/4. Looks like it will never come 

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snowman19

snowman19

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

This would be a heck of a way to start the Niña February pattern 

@AllsnowKarma. It’s going to be funny when we have a raging SE ridge by the end of the 1st week of February lol It’s already starting to show up on guidance. The ‘SSW, epic cold and snow blocked January’ turned into an epic, monumental fail. What’s your other favorite saying...oh yea “CCB ownage” lol BTW, I’m still waiting for my “4-8 inch type deal” you said yesterday was going to be....I got a big inch, comical. I can’t wait to troll you lol

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sussexcountyobs

sussexcountyobs

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@AllsnowKarma. It’s going to be funny when we have a raging SE ridge by the end of the 1st week of February lol It’s already starting to show up on guidance. The ‘SSW, epic cold and snow blocked January’ turned into an epic, monumental fail. What’s your other favorite saying...oh yea “CCB ownage” lol BTW, I’m still waiting for my “4-8 inch type deal” you said yesterday was going to be....I got a big inch, comical. I can’t wait to troll you lol

So, what's your forecast for the next event? 

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@AllsnowKarma. It’s going to be funny when we have a raging SE ridge by the end of the 1st week of February lol It’s already starting to show up on guidance. The ‘SSW, epic cold and snow blocked January’ turned into an epic, monumental fail. What’s your other favorite saying...oh yea “CCB ownage” lol BTW, I’m still waiting for my “4-8 inch type deal” you said yesterday was going to be....I got a big inch, comical. I can’t wait to troll you lol

Whats showing up ? Stop trolling. 

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  • wdrag changed the title to Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.
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