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Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.


wdrag
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1 hour ago, li_wx88 said:

Curious to hear how that handles a bigger storm, single or two stage?

Being electric, my guess is that it will have problems over a foot, though it has a 20" clearance. If there's a forecast for a lot, I'll do two sweeps. 

I don't have a ton of driveway, but the March 2018 storm (18" here) was a beast to do by hand. 

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 I really want everybody to get decent snows with this one but something tells me somebody is going to get screwed royally and it could be IMBY. The better models are further south right now. The fact that GFS and ICON are further north and Euro, Ukie, CMC farther south does not make me warm and fuzzy but still 5 days away. 

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7 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

With euro south and these trends definitely more worried about suppression than too far north

The primary low will reach the Ohio Valley sometime Sunday and then because of the blocking to its east/northeast will form an area of LP around the Hatteras area - classic transfer BTW - from that point the track of the LP is critical - does it start riding up closer to the coast or does it take a more northeast track ? The perfect track for us is a slow benchmark classic track just far enough off the coast so warmer ocean air doesn't get involved here - its impossible at this range to predict what actually will happen maybe in a couple days we will have a better idea..........

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4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yes they are for hype only not forecasting. I want to see Euro come back north before I get excited. 

EURO OP and most other models don't have an idea what is going to happen with the storm once it redevelops south of us - the storm itself is still off the Oregon/California border getting ready to move down the CA coast

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25 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

 I really want everybody to get decent snows with this one but something tells me somebody is going to get screwed royally and it could be IMBY. The better models are further south right now. The fact that GFS and ICON are further north and Euro, Ukie, CMC farther south does not make me warm and fuzzy but still 5 days away. 

I share this concern as well. Would not be shocked if this sinks south and those of us in the HV north miss most of the action and maybe even eventually NYC. 

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39 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This storm isn't missing to the south of the area.  The block  is decaying. 

I wouldn’t invest too much in one solution or other until this weekend. That’s why I haven’t been posting about this yet. Definitely potential for something big if cold air can linger and enough blocking can remain to keep the track far enough south. I’m not concerned about suppression in this setup and the tendency for the SE ridge to keep trying to pump. This past system yet again lurched north and was best for I-90. The one thing that can do it though is overwhelming blocking but it seems to be retreating. 

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6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

a real battle going on here as EURO up to this point hugging the coast causing a mix up here then moving northeast on this map

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

 

 

Seems like a BM track, what's causing the mix?

Lack of a fresh High supplying cold air or not strong enough of a storm to generate its own? Something else?

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  • wdrag changed the title to Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.
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