Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[tim]

6 hours ago, Nibor said:

Euro parks the surface low over the Delmarva for 12 hours. Coast has mixing issues.

...yeah..i still can't dismiss the possible change to rain..especially for us long island folks..like to hear

what 'eastern long island' thinks..alot of the 5 day forecasts have temps around 35-36 degrees.

[HVSnowLover]

5 minutes ago, tim said:

...yeah..i still can't dismiss the possible change to rain..especially for us long island folks..like to hear

what 'eastern long island' thinks..alot of the 5 day forecasts have temps around 35-36 degrees.

12z euro is a big run. Last two runs have both shown a slower storm and a warmer solution for the coast so we’ll see how consistent it is. 

[MJO812]

21 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

12z euro is a big run. Last two runs have both shown a slower storm and a warmer solution for the coast so we’ll see how consistent it is. 

Eps is slightly further east 

[NJwx85]

I know it's tempting to jump all in on this one but just remember that we're still over three days out. A lot is going to change between now and then. And with miller B's you're always going to have a screw zone where the low jumps from the Ohio Valley to off the coast. We're fortunate that the mid level centers develop tucked into the coast. It brings the mixing line North but it's our only shot at seeing big numbers on Monday night.

[HVSnowLover]

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I know it's tempting to jump all in on this one but just remember that we're still over three days out. A lot is going to change between now and then. And with miller B's you're always going to have a screw zone where the low jumps from the Ohio Valley to off the coast. We're fortunate that the mid level centers develop tucked into the coast. It brings the mixing line North but it's our only shot at seeing big numbers on Monday night.

Agree I still say suppression is a bigger worry than mixing especially NYC and points NW. Temps start in the mid 20s so gonna be a lot of snow at least at the start as long as the good stuff can make it to our latitude 

[wdrag]

Thanks to all...keep adding your views-models. I and models to date may have EASILY missed something.  I myself think I80 in NJ even Sussex County should be a little concerned about sleet but otherwise, there is little doubt something that will need snowplows/blowers is coming to a fairly large part of the area along or nw of I95.  Did anyone notice Kuchera halving the snowfall for the valleys (partly downslope shadow, partly slightly warmer valley temps).  If some of these EC temps are correct, we're talking snow ratio's dropping under 10 to 1 all of NJ after the initial few hours of snow-sleet. 

By the way... to those who maybe were dissappointed about only 1-2" of snow on your driveway-sidewalk on 1/26-earl;y 27. Hope it was shoveled/cleared yesterday, cause if not, it's with you as a slippery surface, probably through at least Thursday morning Feb 4.  That's another reason why advisories sometimes are of value...they trigger thoughts about clearing snow from paths etc. I digressed but hopefully with a little added value. I'll post the runup of EPS ensembles very shortly.  Enjoy the wintry feel. I love it, as did my energetic dog on his morning walk. 

[wdrag]

Here's the EPS cyclically ending about the same time (4th) 10x1 snow ratios inclusive of sleet.  The runs prior to the 27th included snowfall for the previous storm north of I80 but I think you can see the EPS consistency, so far.  I think wherever you evaluate the consistent centroid axis, that's the safest for 6+... with greater variability and potential for disappointment along the edges (I95), Adirondacks-n VT on the nw side (Comma head deformation banding).  Also, fwiw... while its snowing in NJ late Sunday or early Monday, folks east of Hudson may be wondering when the snow arrives as its turn to the northeast may be a little slow and dry air devoured.  Latest is first (00z/28). and proceeds backward sequentially in time.  

[hooralph]

Thanks. That's encouraging to see if you are in NYC, as it seems to be holding pretty steady.

 

 

[Wxnyc]

I have been around since the days of the other forum I think it was called northeast weather. Anyway , it’s been almost impossible to get a pure snow event in the five boroughs. Actually the last time was that mega storm on Saturday , we got walloped with like 30 inches in the southern boroughs ,  I think it was January 23,2016.

Whats up with that ? Milder ocean , storm track , just hate the last few years always ends up with the pingers and sleet. This southern Brooklyn so I guess it makes sense . 

[HVSnowLover]

10 minutes ago, Wxnyc said:

I have been around since the days of the other forum I think it was called northeast weather. Anyway , it’s been almost impossible to get a pure snow event in the five boroughs. Actually the last time was that mega storm on Saturday , we got walloped with like 30 inches in the southern boroughs ,  I think it was January 23,2016.

Whats up with that ? Milder ocean , storm track , just hate the last few years always ends up with the pingers and sleet. This southern Brooklyn so I guess it makes sense . 

Yea I was actually thinking this is the coldest airmass of the winter and we are worried about mixing with rain. In the past the worst case scenario with this type of storm would be a little sleet mixed in. 

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, Wxnyc said:

I have been around since the days of the other forum I think it was called northeast weather. Anyway , it’s been almost impossible to get a pure snow event in the five boroughs. Actually the last time was that mega storm on Saturday , we got walloped with like 30 inches in the southern boroughs ,  I think it was January 23,2016.

Whats up with that ? Milder ocean , storm track , just hate the last few years always ends up with the pingers and sleet. This southern Brooklyn so I guess it makes sense . 

My area ( from sheepshead  bay)

[uncle W]

Jan 2018 had a cold snowstorm...colder than 2016...

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, uncle W said:

Jan 2018 had a cold snowstorm...colder than 2016...

the big question now is how much snow we can get to accumulate before midnight Jan. 31 (Sunday) - to determine if NYC metro is below normal snowfall - normal snowfall or above normal snowfall for the month ...........the unreliable 84 hr. NAM does not have the snow beginning till late evening at the earliest....

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

the big question now is how much snow we can get to accumulate before midnight Jan. 31 (Sunday) - to determine if NYC metro is below normal snowfall - normal snowfall or above normal snowfall for the month ...........

I’ll predict under since I think bulk of the snow falls after midnight 

[the_other_guy]

I always remember New York City mixing with rain.

More often than not, major snowstorms ended with drizzle growing up in Queens

It didnt effect totals too much...tail end stuff

[uncle W]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

the big question now is how much snow we can get to accumulate before midnight Jan. 31 (Sunday) - to determine if NYC metro is below normal snowfall - normal snowfall or above normal snowfall for the month ...........

I'm rooting for Feb 1st so I can pat myself on the back...oops...I just jinxed it...

[HVSnowLover]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

the big question now is how much snow we can get to accumulate before midnight Jan. 31 (Sunday) - to determine if NYC metro is below normal snowfall - normal snowfall or above normal snowfall for the month ...........the unreliable 84 hr. NAM does not have the snow beginning till late evening at the earliest....

NAM is unreliable but Euro is also slow with the timing so I’m leaning that way for now. 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

I always remember New York City mixing with rain.

More often than not, major snowstorms ended with drizzle growing up in Queens

It didnt effect totals too much...tail end stuff

There were a few storms which turned to showers in the middle of the storm during  a lull ( feb 2010 retrogade storm, Jan 2011 ( end of the month )

[NEG NAO]

Just now, uncle W said:

I'm rooting for Feb 1st so I can pat myself on the back...oops...I just jinxed it...

im hoping it starts at about 6 am Monday so I am awake for most of it..............

[uncle W]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

im hoping it starts at about 6 am Monday so I am awake for most of it..............

I'm not expecting an all out bomb like 2006 but a smaller version maybe 8-10" with no significant mixing

[HVSnowLover]

3 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I'm not expecting an all out bomb like 2006 but a smaller version maybe 8-10" with no significant mixing

Agree precip rates are not that intense which could be an issue especially if the warmer temps verify but I still think everyone in the sub forum gets 6+.  This is similar to the December storm where models show somewhat different solutions but still all get out region to 6+

[uncle W]

these are the NYC 10" or greater storms with no mixing or change to rain...

all snow events LE...

year.....LE.....snow.....

1947....2.40".....26.4" Dec...

2016....2.32".....27.5" Jan...

1996....2.16".....20.2" Jan...

2006....1.86".....26.9" Feb...

1969....1.82".....15.3" Feb...

2003....1.78".....19.8" Feb...

2010....1.61".....20.0" Dec...

1948....1.58".....16.0" Dec...

1983....1.49".....17.6" Feb...

2010....1.33".....10.0" 2/9 storm...not sure if this was all snow?

2005....1.18".....13.8" Jan...

1956....1.16".....11.6" Mar...

1978....1.13".....17.7" Feb...

1879....1.12".....13.0" Jan...

1912....1.10".....11.4" Dec...

1960....1.08".....14.5" Mar...

1967....1.06".....12.5" Feb...

1876....1.04".....11.0" Feb...

1933....1.04".....11.2" Dec...

1935....0.99".....13.0" Jan...

1947....0.98".....10.7" Feb...

1926....0.96".....12.0" Feb...

1959....0.96".....13.7" Dec...

2003....0.93".....14.0" Dec...

2000....0.92".....12.0" Dec...

1979....0.89".....12.7" Feb...

1964....0.88".....12.5" Jan...

1960....0.86".....15.2" Dec...

2009....0.74".....10.9" Dec...

1899....0.70".....16.0" Feb...

1916....0.59".....12.7" Dec...

1996....0.52".....10.7" Feb...

1905....0.51".....11.0" Jan...

1961....0.50"......9.9" Jan...

2014....0.48".....11.5" Jan...

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, uncle W said:

I'm not expecting an all out bomb like 2006 but a smaller version maybe 8-10" with no significant mixing

I am hoping we don't get that stalled out EURO coast hugger from 0Z because we have to keep the wind direction from more of a NE direction and hope the cold HP doesn't start sliding away to the northeast too fast and allow too much warmer ocean air to get involved - need a benchmark track .......

[uncle W]

Miller b's can become miller bs for some...I'm hoping for the best for the area...

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, uncle W said:

these are the NYC 10" or greater storms with no mixing or change to rain...

all snow events LE...

year.....LE.....snow.....

1947....2.40".....26.4" Dec...

2016....2.32".....27.5" Jan...

1996....2.16".....20.2" Jan...

2006....1.86".....26.9" Feb...

1969....1.82".....15.3" Feb...

2003....1.78".....19.8" Feb...

2010....1.61".....20.0" Dec...

1948....1.58".....16.0" Dec...

1983....1.49".....17.6" Feb...

2010....1.33".....10.0" 2/9 storm...not sure if this was all snow?

2005....1.18".....13.8" Jan...

1956....1.16".....11.6" Mar...

1978....1.13".....17.7" Feb...

1879....1.12".....13.0" Jan...

1912....1.10".....11.4" Dec...

1960....1.08".....14.5" Mar...

1967....1.06".....12.5" Feb...

1876....1.04".....11.0" Feb...

1933....1.04".....11.2" Dec...

1935....0.99".....13.0" Jan...

1947....0.98".....10.7" Feb...

1926....0.96".....12.0" Feb...

1959....0.96".....13.7" Dec...

2003....0.93".....14.0" Dec...

2000....0.92".....12.0" Dec...

1979....0.89".....12.7" Feb...

1964....0.88".....12.5" Jan...

1960....0.86".....15.2" Dec...

2009....0.74".....10.9" Dec...

1899....0.70".....16.0" Feb...

1916....0.59".....12.7" Dec...

1996....0.52".....10.7" Feb...

1905....0.51".....11.0" Jan...

1961....0.50"......9.9" Jan...

2014....0.48".....11.5" Jan...

what's the story behind that 1969 storm and 1.82 precip and only 15.3 in. snow ???? with no changeover ?? low ratio's ???

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I am hoping we don't get that stalled out EURO coast hugger from 0Z because we have to keep the wind direction from more of a NE direction and hope the cold HP doesn't start sliding away to the northeast too fast and allow too much warmer ocean air to get involved - need a benchmark track .......

The Euro seemed to evolve the system more slowly which allowed the system to become more amped and tuck into/hug the coast. It’s certainly a possibility and yes, a low hanging out in Delaware Bay very rarely ends up as a snowy outcome near NYC and the coast. It means a dryslot and warm air coming in. We’re back in the same boat as 12/17 (with this evolution) where we hope the blocking can force the low east as it tries to tuck into and stay on the coast. As we know it was a solid/good event for us near the coast but better inland. Another issue we have to look at is the primary and how quick it transfers to the coastal low. Plenty of time for things to change. 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The Euro seemed to evolve the system more slowly which allowed the system to become more amped and tuck into/hug the coast. It’s certainly a possibility and yes, a low hanging out in Delaware Bay very rarely ends up as a snowy outcome near NYC and the coast. It means a dryslot and warm air coming in. We’re back in the same boat as 12/17 (with this evolution) where we hope the blocking can force the low east as it tries to tuck into and stay on the coast. As we know it was a solid/good event for us near the coast but better inland. Another issue we have to look at is the primary and how quick it transfers to the coastal low. Plenty of time for things to change. 

yeah-you'd want a stall east of LI or somewhere there vs a stall near ACY or the Delmarva

[uncle W]

12 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

what's the story behind that 1969 storm and 1.82 precip and only 15.3 in. snow ???? with no changeover ?? low ratio's ???

very wet snow at the start...

[wdrag]

Here are some GEFS 06z/28 plumes for LGA... use with caution but you'll like these.  No consensus in this data yet except 850 and sfc temp.  On the qpf and snow,  try to refrain from buying into the extremes above the mean axis and think a little more conservatively. Avoid disappointment.  I won't post other ensemble guidance since we're into a new 12z cycle.

in order of appearance: QPF, sfc T, 850 T, type (like to have 80% for assured all snow), snowfall which is all over the place. 

 

[MJO812]

Gfs