Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[HVSnowLover]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs

I think 10:1 snow maps are misleading but not sure? 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

I think 10:1 snow maps are misleading but not sure? 

This is going to be a huge storm. Gfs is really spoty with precip.

[Allsnow]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

I think 10:1 snow maps are misleading but not sure? 

Gfs is colder at the surface as it’s starting to see the cad finally. It’s all snow for nyc with a intense ccb 

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs

that clown map is ridiculous IMO - example - why the low snow totals in western NJ PA border including Warren County NJ ?

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

that clown map is ridiculous IMO - example - why the low snow totals in western NJ PA border including Warren County NJ ?

Gfs sucks with precip distribution 

[HeadInTheClouds]

When is the GFS being replaced?

[Allsnow]

Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

When is the GFS being replaced?

It got pushed back till March now 

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

It got pushed back till March now 

Thats too bad. 

[kat5hurricane]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

that clown map is ridiculous IMO - example - why the low snow totals in western NJ PA border including Warren County NJ ?

All clown maps are ridiculous and I'm not sure why anybody puts much stock into them. Pay attention to the upper level evolution, not the clown maps.

[wdrag]

Couple of notes: I think there is a national weather models comms problem. GGEM/GFSV16 seem delayed. RGEM is in through 00z/Monday. Could b e a lonnnng slow wait for snow to arrive... wouldn't rush it.  Go with I80 Monday morning at the latest, but possibly not I90 til Monday evening? LONNNG ways to go. 

[NJwx85]

Awful post after awful post here today.

Read more, post less.

Look at soundings before you make accusations about dry air. The column is completely saturated until early Tuesday morning when the surface low starts to pull away. The mid-level centers are what's bringing us the strong precip Monday afternoon and Monday night. If they end up further East, they will take the precip with them. Dew points are running about 10 degrees colder than surface temps through the height of the storm. You're going to have plenty of room to wet bulb if the CCB cranks like it's supposed to. 

 

 

[NJwx85]

The reason why the snow coverage looks spotty on the GFS after 00z Monday is because the storm has peaked by then and is starting to fill and weaken. That's what happens when you get a vertically stacked storm. This isn't a rapidly deepening Miller A that's coming up from the South.

#knowyourstorm

[hazwoper]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The reason why the snow coverage looks spotty on the GFS after 00z Monday is because the storm has peaked by then and is starting to fill and weaken. That's what happens when you get a vertically stacked storm. This isn't a rapidly deepening Miller A that's coming up from the coast.

#knowyourstorm

Occlusion

[HVSnowLover]

Cmc takes forever but looks decent eventually 

[HVSnowLover]

19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Awful post after awful post here today.

Read more, post less.

Look at soundings before you make accusations about dry air. The column is completely saturated until early Tuesday morning when the surface low starts to pull away. The mid-level centers are what's bringing us the strong precip Monday afternoon and Monday night. If they end up further East, they will take the precip with them. Dew points are running about 10 degrees colder than surface temps through the height of the storm. You're going to have plenty of room to wet bulb if the CCB cranks like it's supposed to. 

 

 

I agree with you breaking down storm setup is better than model hugging. Won’t the light precip Sunday Night-Monday morning though warm up dewpoints hence less room for evaporational cooling? 

[HVSnowLover]

Ukmet is a miss to the south which i still think is our worst case scenario 

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

I agree with you breaking down storm setup is better than model hugging. Won’t the light precip Sunday Night-Monday morning though warm up dewpoints hence less room for evaporational cooling? 

The precipitation on Sunday and Sunday night is driven by warm air advection. Basically running warm, moist air up over cold, dry air resulting in lift. No real threat for warm air intrusion because by the time the low gets close enough, the coastal storm takes over and flips winds to out of the Northeast. Any mixing issues in our area should be minimal unless the surface low doesn't develop fast enough.

Overall this is a pretty good setup for big snow in our area. Great cold air source and long duration. Synoptically it's very close to some of our biggest snowstorms of all time.

[HVSnowLover]

31 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Couple of notes: I think there is a national weather models comms problem. GGEM/GFSV16 seem delayed. RGEM is in through 00z/Monday. Could b e a lonnnng slow wait for snow to arrive... wouldn't rush it.  Go with I80 Monday morning at the latest, but possibly not I90 til Monday evening? LONNNG ways to go. 

Yea I’d say take snow out of the forecast north of NYC on Sunday 

[NJwx85]

4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Ukmet is a miss to the south which i still think is our worst case scenario 

It looks completely out to lunch and at this point should be dismissed as an outlier. 

 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Ukmet is a miss to the south which i still think is our worst case scenario 

I dont think a miss is on the table.  A hugger is more likely than a miss .

[wdrag]

V16 and GGEM are now slowly posting.  

[donsutherland1]

5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Ukmet is a miss to the south which i still think is our worst case scenario 

It scores high at 500 mb, but it can be often quite volatile with poor run-to-run continuity. The difference between its 1/28 0z and 1/28 12z runs is a case in point. Let’s see what the ECMWF shows.

[weatherpruf]

52 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is going to be a huge storm. Gfs is really spoty with precip.

Gotta admit, I was in the parking lot at Target and had CBS news on, and they seemed to be kinda sorta thinking this might be a big deal, something about long duration....time to start paying attention.

[wdrag]

As a placeholder, thought you'd like to see this from WPC D4-5s.  

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

It scores high at 500 mb, but it can be often quite volatile with poor run-to-run continuity. The difference between its 1/28 0z and 1/28 12z runs is a case in point. Let’s see what the ECMWF shows.

AGREED 100% Don..this for my forecaster friends in New England and elsewhere who doubt.  At least one or two others have noticed.  I've no answers, except to hold onto ensembles/WPC and then use your own judgement. Just have to hang on ...all those EPS's posted earlier... they could be wrong, but it would imo be a formidable EPS bust on the axis of max snowfall. (note not amount but axis). This whole system has above normal SST's off NJ/DE.  That may aid development?  Later, Walt

[wdrag]

Anyway,  thought some of us might like this as a placeholder. 1553z/28 WPC D4-5  Hope it's right for all of us.  Still plenty of variability.  

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, wdrag said:

As a placeholder, thought you'd like to see this from WPC D4-5s.  

AGREED 100% Don..this for my forecaster friends in New England and elsewhere who doubt.  At least one or two others have noticed.  I've no answers, except to hold onto ensembles/WPC and then use your own judgement. Just have to hang on ...all those EPS's posted earlier... they could be wrong, but it would imo be a formidable EPS bust on the axis of max snowfall. (note not amount but axis). This whole system has above normal SST's off NJ/DE.  That may aid development?  Later, Walt

It seems like the UKMET is one of the more erratic models from run to run with surface low positions that affect us. The only time that I can remember it scoring a coup over the other models was with the 2-5-16 snowstorm that delivered around 10” on parts of Long Island. 

[EastonSN+]

GFS V.16 with big hit for the area.

[NJwx85]

Weenies see a low that's tucked into the coast and automatically assume dry/warm issues. That's not always the case. If something goes wrong with this forecast it won't be because of the surface low being tucked in.

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

GFS V.16 with big hit for the area.

 

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Weenies see a low that's tucked into the coast and automatically assume dry/warm issues. That's not always the case. If something goes wrong with this forecast it won't be because of the surface low being tucked in.

Depends for where. Might be some legit concern about mixing issues Jersey coast, south shore, eastern LI (but those areas often mix)