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stormtracker

Jan 25th Wintry Mix Obs and Nowcasting

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Its a messy disjointed system. 12z runs generally seem to bring the best band of waa precip in a bit stronger/ further south, as the leftover precip from the original low heads across PA and much of the area is left in between with just light stuff after the initial 'thump'.

NAM, CMC, and Euro all imply maybe a couple inches of snow/sleet here even. GFS completely sucks.

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15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It misses me to the south kinda with that little snow band....then to the north with the second wave after I flip to ice. So...depending on what happens in the next 10 mins this could be an epic dumpster fire run for me lol. 

Honestly this gives me more hope for Thursday. Euro has been terrible with this event too

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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Its a messy disjointed system. 12z runs generally seem to bring the best band of waa precip in a bit stronger/ further south, as the leftover precip from the original low heads across PA and much of the area is left in between with just light stuff after the initial 'thump'.

NAM, CMC, and Euro all imply maybe a couple inches of snow/sleet here even. GFS completely sucks.

Yup, GGEM and Euro are way better with thermal profiles in general. Got to favor them and then add in 3k NAM tomorrow.

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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

I don't remember that one, but 22 years ago, so meh.

I don't think it is even possible for DCA and BWI to get a major ice storm these days outside of some kind of crazy anomalous setup not seen in decades. Like sustained --20s and 30s up at my house in Randolph filtering towards down here.

This year is far from it.

Wait you have a house in Randolph?

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13 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said:

So, there are more updates coming from the banter threads. Did i miss a transition?

Everyone is quietly getting plastered waiting on the 18z

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18 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Everyone is quietly getting plastered waiting on the 18z

I was going to save this 120 for tomorrow...oh well.

18z NAM looks "icy"

Still thinks my yard is going to max out on the little snow that falls lol. We know that cant be right.

1611662400-y52bUKegJ7o.png

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Now that it’s coming in range I think 3K NAM is the way to go with this one...I just don’t see the onset being snow with the timing mid afternoon and the low that far west. 3K starts as sleet/ice for cities then goes to rain after a few hours. Definitely could be a fairly significant ice situation for the usual spots with this one though but I just don’t buy the couple inches of snow that some modeling has spit out with this one 

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4 hours ago, PhineasC said:

95% of the population lives near I-95. There hasn't been a real ice storm in that zone since 1994.

You are basically in a totally different climate zone from these people. 

Greatest ice storm of all time.  My young family and I were skiing at Waterville valley in New Hampshire. The night before the storm hit Philly the temperature hit minus 32 degrees at Waterville.  The next morning it was 20 degrees in Philly.  And poring rain. We drove home two days later and the freezing line with ice was brutal.

We lost several trees north and west of Philly.  Everyone lost trees.

The second greatest ice storm happened around 2011-2012.  A little north of us.  Closed 78 and Lehigh university.  A bunch of my daughters Sorority sisters came to stay with us.   That was not to bad. lol 

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The trend for drier continues, esp the further north you go. The wave is moving into lots of dry air and high pressure, and looks to dampen. This is what i thought would be the most likely outcome a couple days ago, but the models trended the other way. Now trending back towards weak/de-amplified. This has been the case with nearly every wave attempting to move eastward in this current pattern.

1611651600-3Iou5oQog6M.png

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12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Actually I think its says -2.5. Ok I'll buy that.

this always amuses me

namconus_asnow_neus_28.png

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Just now, CAPE said:

The trend for drier continues, esp the further north you go. The wave is moving into lots of dry air and high pressure, and looks to dampen. This is what i thought would be the most likely outcome a couple days ago, but the models trended the other way. Now trending back towards weak/de-amplified. This has been the trend with nearly every wave attempting to move eastward in this current pattern.

1611651600-3Iou5oQog6M.png

the GFS is going to give us a 8-12 inch event on Tuesday for Wednesay night...and then 12 hours before game time...it will show 1-3

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15 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Actually I think its says -2.5. Ok I'll buy that.

It’s going to take 2.5” from a storm to be named later for the audacity of even trying. 

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4 minutes ago, Ji said:

the GFS is going to give us a 8-12 inch event on Tuesday for Wednesay night...and then 12 hours before game time...it will show 1-3

I wont buy a solution like that unless its there 36 hours prior to game time. This deamplificaiton/suppression/shredding of decent looking shortwaves heading eastward has been persistent as hell since this blocking pattern has established.

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5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The trend for drier continues, esp the further north you go. The wave is moving into lots of dry air and high pressure, and looks to dampen. This is what i thought would be the most likely outcome a couple days ago, but the models trended the other way. Now trending back towards weak/de-amplified. This has been the case with nearly every wave attempting to move eastward in this current pattern.

1611651600-3Iou5oQog6M.png

everything came south except for the snow that the Euro gave us 3 days ago. Remeber the multiple double digit snow runs

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21 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The trend for drier continues, esp the further north you go. The wave is moving into lots of dry air and high pressure, and looks to dampen. This is what i thought would be the most likely outcome a couple days ago, but the models trended the other way. Now trending back towards weak/de-amplified. This has been the case with nearly every wave attempting to move eastward in this current pattern.

1611651600-3Iou5oQog6M.png

Yea but what good does it do anyone if the level of suppression it takes to stay cold also squashes everything to your south.  Look at the axis of qpf. Guidance nailed that from day 10. But that band over northern VA was supposed to be snow and historically it SHOULD be!  This is about the 5th storm this cold season that lacked any appreciable snow shield to the north of it at our latitude because the cold and precip never touched!  

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10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I wont buy a solution like that unless its there 36 hours prior to game time. This deamplificaiton/suppression/shredding of decent looking shortwaves heading eastward has been persistent as hell since this blocking pattern has established.

Not enough baroclinicity. These boundaries, even now, are lacking the potential energy they should have with a greater temperature gradient. It’s a little better now. At least the waves aren’t squashed to LA lol. But it’s still not enough to get them to amplify much given a suppressed flow. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Yea but what good does it do anyone if the level of suppression it raise to stay cold also squashed everything to your south.  Look at the axis of qpf. Guidance nailed that from day 10. But that band over northern VA was supposed to be snow and historically it SHOULD be!  This is about the 5th storm this cold season that lacked any appreciable snow shield to the north of it at our latitude because the cold and precip never touched!  

I get it. Its odd. But I have accepted that it's just not very cold despite the favorable HL pattern. The reasons can be debated elsewhere I guess.

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16 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I wont buy a solution like that unless its there 36 hours prior to game time. This deamplificaiton/suppression/shredding of decent looking shortwaves heading eastward has been persistent as hell since this blocking pattern has established.

Strongly agree. 250mb winds are ripping as well and aiding in the shred process. The trend has been for sheared and weak, fast flow.

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24 minutes ago, Ji said:

the GFS is going to give us a 8-12 inch event on Tuesday for Wednesay night...and then 12 hours before game time...it will show 1-3

At least you won't have a shitfit since you already know 

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not enough baroclinicity. These boundaries, even now, are lacking the potential energy they should have with a greater temperature gradient. It’s a little better now. At least the waves aren’t squashed to LA lol. But it’s still not enough to get them to amplify much given a suppressed flow. 

Now isn't suppression more nina-like because of the tendency toward more NS activity? (I remember at one time in Jan 2018 seeing a parade of HP's coming down the middle of the country, lol

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Now isn't suppression more nina-like because of the tendency toward more NS activity? (I remember at one time in Jan 2018 seeing a parade of HP's coming down the middle of the country, lol

No. Suppression has to do with the blocking pattern, not ENSO state.

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