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wdrag

Snow-ice-rain for the NYC forum 7PM Mon 1/25-6AM Wednesday 1/27

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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Take whatever we can get. SPC SREF snow plumes NYC event for Tuesday-early Wed. Use as you wish... probably good to stay off the high side of the plumes for now and slice an inch off the mean... tho I definitely think 2" for NYC is a good possibility for this pattern. 

Screen Shot 2021-01-24 at 8.03.21 AM.png

I’m still more worried about lack of qpf then temps but the combination is gonna make it hard for nyc, light snow or mix at 33-35 is basically a non event for nyc metro.

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3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Congrats Virginia twice this week? 
 

I think NAM is only model getting that whacky down south with this?

Lack of precip. 

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15 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Lack of precip hurts temps too because column won’t cool. 

yeah it's white rain for many here or maybe car topper type stuff.

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40 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

I’m still more worried about lack of qpf then temps but the combination is gonna make it hard for nyc, light snow or mix at 33-35 is basically a non event for nyc metro.

Yeah I don’t see temps being an issue really.  It’ll come down to if any little banding features happen which I think is definitely possible.

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55 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah I don’t see temps being an issue really.  It’ll come down to if any little banding features happen which I think is definitely possible.

Yea GFS keeps showing mixing, I am not sure if any other models are or its just lack of qpf 

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4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

CMC also now has the mix line over the city. About 1 inch North shore of LI/Bronx. 1-3 inches for the northern suburbs.    

This went from suppression to north of the city

lol

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51 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Two separate waves.

I still felt the confluence would be too strong for the 2nd one to get that far north.  The Euro/NAM still don't bring it as far north.  One thing of note though is if the S/W is stronger and this goes north there's a chance there would be a period of snows even down to NYC for awhile at the start...the RGEM is showing this.  

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Euro continuing the trend the RGEM and UKMET/GFS showed of this S/W being stronger coming out of the Lakes....I think the period from 9am-2pm Tuesday now could see legit accumulations and steady light snows down into the metro...it will change over and then maybe change back late that night but a more organized disturbance now could kick off a several hour period where 1-3 inches could fall

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This event continues to look less impactful as we move forward in time.  Right now it looks like two periods of light snow.  First Tue morning and then possibly again overnight Tue. Some guidance shows semi-continuous spotty light mixed precip throughout the period, but the consensus seems to show a lull following the initial WAA push. The possible inverted trof feature, which could extend snow showers well into Wed, has shifted slightly north and east of the metro.

If temps stay below freezing, even 1" of snow will seem very wintry. 3" would seem like a pretty significant event. I would lean towards the low end. But we can hope for pockets or bands of heavier snow to make things a little more interesting.

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21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This went from way south to a big north trend. Blocking trending weaker ?

The GFS is probably out to lunch, some sort of compromise on the Euro/RGEM/NAM is probably what will happen.

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36 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The GFS is probably out to lunch, some sort of compromise on the Euro/RGEM/NAM is probably what will happen.

Either way best dynamics will be both south of nyc with wave 1 and north of nyc with wave 2. 

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8 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Either way best dynamics will be both south of nyc with wave 1 and north of nyc with wave 2. 

Yep and when you factor in the mid-level warm nose and boundary layer issues, weak lift profiles, marginal temps, those 10:1 ratio snowmaps are seriously flawed, this is a general 1-2 spot 3 inch snowfall event before p-type issues. Weak sauce for the metro area. But like you said, consider this a win and enjoy

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5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yep and when you factor in the mid-level warm nose and boundary layer issues, weak lift profiles, marginal temps, those 10:1 ratio snowmaps are seriously flawed, this is a general 1-2 spot 3 inch snowfall event before p-type issues. Weak sauce for the metro area. But like you said, consider this a win and enjoy

I don't see precip/mixing issues with high temps in the upper 20's Tuesday and lows in the mid 20's Tuesday night. 

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19 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Just noise. There's no room for this to go but east south east.

It's not noise. Wave 2 has definitely come farther north on all models, just not as far north as GFS. It then does move e-se but still looks like a 2-4, isolated 5 possible in some spots N and W of NYC. 

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10 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

I don't see precip/mixing issues with high temps in the upper 20's Tuesday and lows in the mid 20's Tuesday night. 

Yeah, surface temps. The low level surface/boundary layer temps don’t matter, there’s going to be mid-level warming issues, it’s going to turn to sleet and freezing rain....plain rain for some areas in southern parts 

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