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wdrag

Snow-ice-rain for the NYC forum 7PM Mon 1/25-6AM Wednesday 1/27

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1 minute ago, PoZitron20 said:

I have a feeling we are talking about a pregame here for 28th event. These two waves are connected to each other!

pregame is the 26th -the 28th is the main event the way it looks now ......

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6 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yea for now it’s a bit too far SE but obviously bears close watching 

I wouldn't concentrate on the actual surface map precip fields depiction this far out - this shows the potential here right off the VA capes perfect position a few miles either way makes a big difference still 144 hours out 

gfs_z500_vort_us_25.png

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

UKMET through 72 more resembles the GFS and CMC for Tuesday.  It has literally no storm at all for Thursday lol 

It will catch on if the CMC , GFS and GEFS  have a clue. Even the Icon shows a storm

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3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It will catch on if the CMC , GFS and GEFS  have a clue. Even the Icon shows a storm

so now was the 12Z EURO an outlier ? Like I said earlier everything is still on the table and this won't be settled till maybe at some point this weekend........IMO

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11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

so now was the 12Z EURO an outlier ? Like I said earlier everything is still on the table and this won't be settled till maybe at some point this weekend........IMO

With Tuesday storm ? That looks like a 1-3 inch event for our area right now. 

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Verbatim at the time the 144hr storm is happening there's a lobe of added energy coming down from the 50-50 type low in Canada which reinforces the confluence and shunts it out or even SE. It would be good if that lobe was weaker or timed differently. That's how we got horribly screwed on 2/6/10, worst possible timed added confluence. 

Wave 1 and 2 have heartbreak written all over them for here and points NE as currently modeled.

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5 minutes ago, DeltaStorm said:

To my untrained eye 00z ECMWF seems more north up to hr72

Screenshot_2021-01-23 Models ECMWF Hi-Res — Pivotal Weather.png

It really doesn't matter how much further north it is in the midwest. What matters here is the press of the confluence/dry air which will dry the precip up at some point and suppress what's left when it comes east through PA.

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7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It really doesn't matter how much further north it is in the midwest. What matters here is the press of the confluence/dry air which will dry the precip up at some point and suppress what's left when it comes east through PA.

It actually was a tad further south.   At this stage most models and the Euro especially show a ridiculously long period of light snow or flurries which I’m not sure such a scenario happens 

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21 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It actually was a tad further south.   At this stage most models and the Euro especially show a ridiculously long period of light snow or flurries which I’m not sure such a scenario happens 

Yeah, I guess that will have some wintry appeal for a while. The maybe half inch of wet snow 2 mornings ago that stuck on everything and was a postcard scene for as long as it lasted will likely end up better than this will. 

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17 minutes ago, DaveTinNY said:

"A potential significant event for some areas - depending on the track" - per WCBS 880 wx this morning before work....

This event went down the drain for the metro area. Looks like at best a 1-3 inch snowfall( if that ) along the coast.

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13 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Note; The GFS para is running again, tho not n tidbits yet. Found on Pivatol. It is more robust than the GFS and many other models north and west of NYC.  I'm not sure what to think of it. 

 

sn10_acc.us_ne (1).png

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15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

sn10_acc.us_ne (1).png

I wouldn’t put too much stock in this given recent trends on other models. With that said if this storm being flatter allows the next one to be stronger and more NW I’d take that trade off

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Good morning again,  go for it!  12zNAM should be the start of some useful guidance on whether or not we can muster 1/4" or greater qpf and associated snow/ice/rain. I''ll revisit at 330PM.   

Third topic edits 626A/23: Delayed the start in the forum 3 more hours and that may not be enough due to the dry air in place, but sometimes the snow-sleet breaks out faster than modeled. I've had to admit a slower departure, especially because of the GFSv16 and EC.  The following may be too high on amounts but it's just my opinion of the boiled down (in my mind) consensus of the 00z-06z/23 model suite. 

A colder week is now here with hazardous winter weather potential late Monday-late Thursday

Late Monday the 25th-early Wed the 27th: Manageable. Still uncertainty on evolution. There is general model consenses for slower arrival and later departure, and less precip amounts. I am guarded about decreasing the wintry element amounts (low level pressure pattern, 500MB vort max track, GFSv16) but this update below may be an inch or 2 on the high side? 
 
Manageable delays sometime in this event due to plowable snow northwest of I95, except snow-ice I78 southward in NJ to Baltimore and snow/ice/rain NYC-LI southward along the NJ coast southeast of I95). The main event for I84 should Tuesday-Tuesday night. Expecting amounts to range from an uncertain 1-5" CT with the least in eastern Connecticut and a less than certain forecast there, to between 4- isolated 7" se NYS, ne PA and nw NJ. LI NYC/NJ coast 1" to possibly as much as 4" by the time all is said and done with the best chance for a POSSIBLE 4" NYC (possible, not probable). I expect plowing will be needed sometime for most of our area northwest of I95,  except maybe east of the CT River.
 
Temps will generally be subfreezing throughout the event except NYC/LI/NJ coast which are in the margins of ice-snow at the start, changing to periods of rain then ending as snow, so amounts of each element will depend on duration but it will probable get slippery there on untreated surfaces for a time as well-especially if and when precipitation occurs during the nighttime hours. Check others herein and other resources for other opinions. 
 
This graphic attached was issued by WPC at noon yesterday, but I think still applies. 

 

Screen Shot 2021-01-23 at 5.04.30 AM.png

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The Euro and NAM want nothing to do with Mon night - Tues....they shear it to shreds. The models that do have more, aren’t showing much better. This is probably a general 1-2 inches of snow for the metro area. At this point take it as a win.....

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9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The Euro and NAM want nothing to do with Mon night - Tues....they shear it to shreds. The models that do have more, aren’t showing much better. This is probably a general 1-2 inches of snow for the metro area. At this point take it as a win.....

Agree it’s a shredded mess at this point, at this point 1-2 inches would be a win. My focus is now on the late week storm although not that optimistic for our area with that either. 

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Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Agree it’s a shredded mess at this point, at this point 1-2 inches would be a win. My focus is now on the late week storm although not that optimistic for our area with that either. 

I’m gonna hang on to 2-4 for me in the Catskills and that’d be solid. Anything significantly more is pointing more or less at CPA and points west it would seem by this point.

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The models are all saying the same thing over and over. 

Be it flurries, light snow, a dusting, or a couple or inches...this isnt our storm due to dry air shredding the storm apart.

End of story...unless something changes dramatically.


On Tuesday, let’s not have rehash of what went wrong with the models as we do time and again. 

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7 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

The models are all saying the same thing over and over. 

Be it flurries, light snow, a dusting, or a couple or inches...this isnt our storm due to dry air shredding the storm apart.

End of story...unless something changes dramatically.


On Tuesday, let’s not have rehash of what went wrong with the models as we do time and again. 

Models suck

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5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Models suck

If the atmosphere is fickle/dynamic/changeable from one moment to another how could the models not mirror that in their attempt at prediction? As always ...

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33 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

I’m gonna hang on to 2-4 for me in the Catskills and that’d be solid. Anything significantly more is pointing more or less at CPA and points west it would seem by this point.

There are hints of some banding from central NYS to the western Catskills so definitely possible 

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50 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

There are hints of some banding from central NYS to the western Catskills so definitely possible 

Walt’s 4-7 guess for my area/extreme NEPA/NNJ would be a good high end 

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