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wdrag

Snow-ice-rain for the NYC forum 7PM Mon 1/25-6AM Wednesday 1/27

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2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The main system isn’t gonna do it.  It’s that 2nd surface reflection that goes up into the Great Lakes and cuts ESE after 84 hours that will do it here.  The problem is that might go far enough north that the metro gets rain.  It all depends how the block and confluence work.  At this stage I think we can say the main event before that doesn’t get much above PHL, if that.   

Euro sees it this way too, with the first system being a dry, sheared, suppressed miss for this forum, but the 2nd system providing at least a minor/moderate event with a long duration.  Something is better than nothing and I can live with a day later, although I'd like to have my 4-8" storm from 2 days ago back, lol. 

sn10_acc.us_ma.png

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1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

12Z Euro looks better (seems the 12Z consensus is moving back toward at least a 1-3 inch event)

This never was anything more than a minor 1-2, 1-3 inch event. This setup screamed weak suppressed/sheared for many days now, some people chose to ignore that and wishcast it into a 4-8/3-6 inch event 

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Just now, snowman19 said:

This never was anything more than a minor 1-2, 1-3 inch event. This setup screamed weak suppressed/sheared for many days now, some people chose to ignore that and wishcast it into a 4-8/3-6 inch event 

0Z runs were trending toward snow showers so I'll take the 1-3 inch event 

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

This never was anything more than a minor 1-2, 1-3 inch event. This setup screamed weak suppressed/sheared for many days now, some people chose to ignore that and wishcast it into a 4-8/3-6 inch event 

It ultimately might get saved by the sneaky surface feature that cuts its way from the Lakes behind the main event.  The Euro is now showing it too.  I think the combination of the thermal gradient from the high over Quebec coupled with the east inflow off the Atlantic could still give some areas 4 plus 

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It ultimately might get saved by the sneaky surface feature that cuts its way from the Lakes behind the main event.  The Euro is now showing it too.  I think the combination of the thermal gradient from the high over Quebec coupled with the east inflow off the Atlantic could still give some areas 4 plus 

That “sneaky” feature Tuesday is one of the contributors (along with others) helping to suppress the Thursday storm OTS

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Just now, snowman19 said:

That “sneaky” feature Tuesday is one of the contributors (along with others) helping to suppress the Thursday storm OTS

Yup.  This area at least can win to an extent on one of the two by that happening whereas New England can’t.   Should cash in on one of the two events.  

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1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Euro looks pretty good. A few inches of snow for the NYC area tuesday afternoon into tuesday night.

1-3 inches is a good bet

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No confidence on downgrading changes to thread thinking on the coming event, despite a number of models too dry to support. I could be wrong but what I see is a good cold BL to overrun...(850MB initial sw flow lift Monday night becoming light s-se for a time Tuesday)  I also see the 'potential' for some nearly stationary subtle banding somewhere between I80 north to maybe as far I90 Tuesday-Tuesday night, along and north of the mid level vort stretching eastward. There is very small potential that this will become an inverted trough northwestward by early Wednesday to near KMPO or KABE, as the surface low redevelops eastward out to sea.  Then its dendrite growth etc.  Too far out for me to be confident in a marginal situation but frozen ground  (even if above freezing Monday) and the good chance that ice will be mixed in almost up to I80 argues for a probable manageable advisory situation. Even if 'isolated' all snow 6+ occurs north of I80 in far nw NJ/ne PA/se NYS, since it's stretched out over 24+ hours, criteria won't be met for a warning event.  

No matter... snow and ice is coming with I think the deepest accumulation north of I80 but debatable and so I will maintain close to  the 6a update and reevaluate tomorrow morning.  By then we should know if the NAM is going to start developing qpf of .3 to 5" over a 36 hour period I80 north, and if the GEPS is going to lose it's 1/2".  Added two ensemble plumes for KLGA.  Both are a little interesting. For now, I'd discard everything above the mean,.and think an inch less then the mean presented. Later, Walt

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Screen Shot 2021-01-23 at 2.57.57 PM.png

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yup.  This area at least can win to an extent on one of the two by that happening whereas New England can’t.   Should cash in on one of the two events.  

that Thursday event is going to break DC's 370 day plus measurable snowless streak?

 

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

That “sneaky” feature Tuesday is one of the contributors (along with others) helping to suppress the Thursday storm OTS

I’ll take the snow Tuesday and the other one can hit DC,  they haven’t had one in  ages. That’s not a signal for a significant NYC storm with the setup in place. 

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1 hour ago, HVSnowLover said:

I’ll take the snow Tuesday and the other one can hit DC,  they haven’t had one in  ages. That’s not a signal for a significant NYC storm with the setup in place. 

370 days without measurable snow in DC is close to breaking the record, so that one definitely isn't an "offshore" storm it's merely a midatlantic special, which means here on the south shore of Long Island, we can still get something out of it- I knew there was going to be a positive of being in the southern portion of the forum one of these days lol.

fyi I'm actually rooting for DC not to have any measurable snow, because 11 more days and it will break their all time record for lack of measurable snowfall.

 

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49 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

18z Gfs now rain for nyc/LI. I know some on here warned of this possibility. I also know it’s just the 18z gfs. 

with a track of the second low I can see how it rains-regardless-QPF is minimal anyway

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_14.png

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7 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

I don't see that GFS solution happening. I would drop that rain mixing line 50 miles south.

It depends how far north the track of that second low is. Gfs might be too warm but it’s also a possible solution.

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

with a track of the second low I can see how it rains-regardless-QPF is minimal anyway

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_14.png

. 5+ all as snow in Orange Cty is not minimal QPF

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3 minutes ago, Jeff Grann said:

. 5+ all as snow in Orange Cty is not minimal QPF

agreed, but most of the subforum is .25 or less.   Yawn.

gfs_apcpn_neus_15.png

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28 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

agreed, but most of the subforum is .25 or less.   Yawn.

gfs_apcpn_neus_15.png

3-6 inches this run for Sussex, Orange and Ulster but next run will probably look different 

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4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

that Thursday event is going to break DC's 370 day plus measurable snowless streak?

 

Once you've gone that long they may as well break the record. I mean what's another 11 days when they've gone over a year without snow.

 

40 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

3-6 inches this run for Sussex, Orange and Ulster but next run will probably look different 

I'd like to believe that run, but I don't, not for a second.

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0z gfs colder and back to snow for nyc metro, still  light precipitation 

 

cmc similar 

 

consensus right now leaning toward 1-3 for nyc with a bit more north and west 

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25 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

0z gfs colder and back to snow for nyc metro, still  light precipitation 

 

cmc similar 

 

consensus right now leaning toward 1-3 for nyc with a bit more north and west 

CMC is a solid 3 -5 inches across much of the metro especially west of Hudson - over a 24 hour period at least

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

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13 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

CMC is a solid 3 -5 inches across much of the metro especially west of Hudson - over a 24 hour period at least

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

I use Kuchera because don’t trust 10:1 especially on light precip in the city but yes cmc looks decent 

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6 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

I use Kuchera because don’t trust 10:1 especially on light precip in the city but yes cmc looks decent 

even slightly more with Kuchera

snku_acc.us_ne.png

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6 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

agreed, but most of the subforum is .25 or less.   Yawn.

gfs_apcpn_neus_15.png

People need to enjoy the 1-3 inches coming and call it a day. Very minor, puny event at best. Like I said earlier, consider it a win

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Essentially every global and the NAM/RGEM have CNJ/EPA getting 1" or so along 195/276 (with less to the south, except for a couple of models that have 1-2" from the initial SW flow) with amounts increasing to 2-3" up to about 78, with some divergence north of there: some of the models have 2-3" for points N of 78 also, while some have 3-4" N of 78.  The exception to this is some of the models only have 1-2" for LI.  Obviously, we're still ~60 hours away from the start of the event, so much can change, but I could live with a 1-3/2-4" event for most.  

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This event is weak sauce on the new model runs, weak lift, minimal QPF, poor upper level/jet dynamics, light precip and now the models have a mid-level warm nose punching all the way up to my neck of the woods, it’s going to turn to sleet. Some portions of the metro even see boundary layer issues and go to rain. This is looking more and more like a nothing burger

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21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This event is weak sauce on the new model runs, weak lift, minimal QPF, poor upper level/jet dynamics, light precip and now the models have a mid-level warm nose punching all the way up to my neck of the woods, it’s going to turn to sleet. Some portions of the metro even see boundary layer issues and go to rain. This is looking more and more like a nothing burger

Yea I’m worried about the north trend turning this into a rain/slop event at this point. 

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550AM sunday: This is mostly a Tuesday-Tuesday night event. Periods of mostly light snow, at times changing to sleet, freezing rain (rain where above 32F along the coasts) or freezing drizzle up to I80, NYC, LI. Snow amounts trimmed a bit and I sure hope NYC can muster 1/2-3" depending on precip type and intensity for this event.  I pushed the start time back to 7P Monday but it could be delayed NYC-LI-CT til as late as 9AM Tuesday. Also took MODERATE event out of the headline.

Banding signature suggests snow should  break out across PA/NJ between 7P and midnight Monday. The primary event is the 26th, ending sometime Wednesday morning. 

While amounts are light, suspect there will could be a period or two of 3/4mi light snow - bordering 1/2S for an hour or two,  from northern NJ into ne PA/se NYS and western CT.

06z/24 NAM banding signature and also seen in the 06z/24 GFSv16 qpf, that the heaviest snow may occur early Wednesday near NYC.  This may be associated with a trowel/inverted trough/ departing shortwave with the weak seaward moving low pressure. Something to monitor but not get hopes overly high. 

So, manageable delays sometime during this event due to plowable snow northwest of I95, except snow-ice I80 southward in NJ to Baltimore and snow/ice/rain NYC-LI southward along the NJ coast southeast of I95. Amount expectations lowered to range from an uncertain 1-4" CT with the least in eastern Connecticut and a less than certain forecast there, to between 3-5" se NYS, ne PA and 2-4" nw NJ north of I80. 
 
Temps will generally be subfreezing throughout the event except NYC/LI/NJ coast which are in the margins of ice-snow at the start, changing to periods of rain then ending as snow, so amounts of each element will depend on duration but it will probable get slippery there on untreated surfaces for a time as well-especially if and when precipitation occurs during the nighttime hours. Check others herein and other resources for other opinions. 
 
Added some graphics which are probabilistic. use read the graphic and probability legend. I did not add the NWS regional snowfall forecast because it ends at 7P Tuesday. 

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