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wdrag

Snow-ice-rain for the NYC forum 7PM Mon 1/25-6AM Wednesday 1/27

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4 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

honestly i’d take an inch and run with it, im liking the colder trend, we shall see. maybe can sneak 2-3”

I think 1 inch in Yonkers and then a sleet fest.

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54 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Euro definitely just came in colder. Gets 2 inches of snow down close to NYC and into north-central NJ now. Would be nice to see a late colder trend today into tonight.

The Euro has been by far the coldest the last 2-3 runs.  It also generates much more precipitation in that 12-15Z window across New Jersey while many others have spotty  precipitation or nothing 

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3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Euro has been by far the coldest the last 2-3 runs.  It also generates much more precipitation in that 12-15Z window across New Jersey while many others have spotty  precipitation or nothing 

The NAM is in its good range, so hard to discount its solution of almost nothing, but RGEM and EURO are robust.   GFS in between.

A good forecast would be 1-3 with highest amounts N and W of the city....

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34 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The NAM is in its good range, so hard to discount its solution of almost nothing, but RGEM and EURO are robust.   GFS in between.

A good forecast would be 1-3 with highest amounts N and W of the city....

The NAM has wanted nothing to do with it for days now. There are definitely going to be p-type issues looking at the soundings, the usual mid-level warm nose will be there and some areas will see boundary layer issues as well. Nothing really has changed since yesterday, still 1-2/1-3 inches of snow

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the 3km NAM was a bit more organized  this run but it’s still quite a bit slower than all other models with nothing into the metro til 17z.   All others are more or less 14z with some as early as 13

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2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

18z NAM still meh except NW sections

namconus_asnow_neus_17.png

Yep and the ratios aren’t going to be that good with mixing issues, the actual snow amounts are going to be less. Some of those totals on that map are sleet counted as snow

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Hi!.  The following is a start for the advisory.  I think it will eventually need expansion to all of LI.  At 6P, I'll add the new regional snowfall forecast. mPing and icy and or/snow covered pavements here we come for a manageable minor advisory event, that still has 1+" snow possibilities for LI, especially if we get the backwash (sewd moving) after 7AM Wednesday, associated with the developing low s of LI.  Think we may see some surprises on qpf over 1/4" on LI.  TBD. 

Screen Shot 2021-01-25 at 3.34.22 PM.png

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5 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Hi!.  The following is a start for the advisory.  I think it will eventually need expansion to all of LI.  At 6P, I'll add the new regional snowfall forecast. mPing and icy and or/snow covered pavements here we come for a manageable minor advisory event, that still has 1+" snow possibilities for LI, especially if we get the backwash (sewd moving) after 7AM Wednesday, associated with the developing low s of LI.  Think we may see some surprises on qpf over 1/4" on LI.  TBD. 

Screen Shot 2021-01-25 at 3.34.22 PM.png

WWA advisory for everyone except NYC/LI

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29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Maybe for New England 

Nam shows it here

Stop denying everything 

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13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nam shows it here

Stop denying everything 

Hot off the presses....From the National Weather Service: (And this is for Rockland), only up to 2 inches of snow total from this, for NYC, even less, up to 1 inch total. This is a very, very minor snow event. Please stop trying to turn this into something it’s not. Rockland: https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ069&warncounty=NYC087&firewxzone=NYZ069&local_place1=Montebello NY&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory&lat=41.1288&lon=-74.1181#.YA8y8aQ8IlQ Here’s NYC, 1 inch total: https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ073&warncounty=NYC005&firewxzone=NYZ073&local_place1=Bronx NY&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory&lat=40.8489&lon=-73.8762#.YA8z_aQ8IlQ

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9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Hot off the presses....From the National Weather Service: (And this is for Rockland), only up to 2 inches of snow total from this, for NYC, even less, up to 1 inch total. This is a very, very minor snow event. Please stop trying to turn this into something it’s not. Rockland: https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ069&warncounty=NYC087&firewxzone=NYZ069&local_place1=Montebello NY&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory&lat=41.1288&lon=-74.1181#.YA8y8aQ8IlQ Here’s NYC, 1 inch total: https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ073&warncounty=NYC005&firewxzone=NYZ073&local_place1=Bronx NY&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory&lat=40.8489&lon=-73.8762#.YA8z_aQ8IlQ

Minor for snow, and an advisory would possibly not have been issued for ONLY the snow amounts posted, but we're dealing with frozen ground, snow and maybe sleet/freezing rain mix, and maybe e just a little more qpf than what is modeled if the inverted trough proves real.  Also, this is a at least a climo advisory event. Might need to deice aircraft.  I don't think is melt on contact unless treated surface. Jury may be out on final snow.    I'll post the CoCoRAHS finals either Wed or Thu. Probably 32F or below through the entire event nw of I95 and maybe even NYC/LI.  NAM BL temps 2C at midnight tomorrow night might be okay at the top of the BL but if the wind is turning north...then I suspect colder CT airmass seeps down across the sound.  So yes, minor- however, hazardous untreated.  

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19 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Gfs has a nice burst tomorrow early afternoon. We’ll see.

RGEM as well-still impressive north of the city with 3-5 inches-sharp cutoff right around I-80

-

rgem_asnow_neus_57.png

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32 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Thanks... I think NYC is in it now. Impressive collection of EPS lows s of LI 00z/Wed.  Nice inflow potential. 

Yea I see most of NYC except southern Queens is now included. 

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

RGEM as well-still impressive north of the city with 3-5 inches-sharp cutoff right around I-80

-

rgem_asnow_neus_57.png

Rates are actually pretty good tomorrow afternoon on the RGEM, might help the city stay snow longer with the initial batch if it's really that heavy (big if)

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1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

Rates are actually pretty good tomorrow afternoon on the RGEM, might help the city stay snow longer with the initial batch if it's really that heavy (big if)

I don't understand why all these maps are showing my area 3-4" while my NWS forecast is saying only up to 1" of snow/sleet?

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If you dont want to discuss minor storms, im sure there are other things you can find to pass the time, let the people who want to discuss the weather continue to discuss the weather. Thanks. 

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12 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

I don't understand why all these maps are showing my area 3-4" while my NWS forecast is saying only up to 1" of snow/sleet?

Because sleet is treated as snow acc at 10 to 1 and it's usually much less, maybe 2.5 or 3 to 1?  Bottom line, inflated.  Best to start with positive snow depth change and think it out form there. Or if you have the model data... monitor the EC etc snow depth change and use that as a bottom #. 

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